Detecting anomalous road traffic conditions

ABSTRACT

Techniques are described for assessing road traffic conditions in various ways based on obtained traffic-related data, such as data samples from vehicles and other mobile data sources traveling on the roads and/or from one or more other sources (such as physical sensors near to or embedded in the roads). The road traffic conditions assessment based on obtained data samples may include various filtering and/or conditioning of the data samples, and various inferences and probabilistic determinations of traffic-related characteristics of interest from the data samples. In some situations, the inferences include repeatedly determining current traffic flow characteristics and/or predicted future traffic flow characteristics for road segments of interest during time periods of interest, such as to determine average traffic speed, traffic volume and/or occupancy, and include weighting various data samples in various ways (e.g., based on a latency of the data samples and/or a source of the data samples).

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/315,195, filed Dec. 8, 2011, and entitled “Determining Road TrafficConditions Using Multiple Data Samples,” now U.S. Pat. No. 8,483,940,which is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety. U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/315,195 is a continuation of U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/052,953, filed Mar. 21, 2011 and entitled“Determining Road Traffic Conditions Using Data from Multiple DataSources,” now U.S. Pat. No. 8,090,524. U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/052,953 is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No.11/752,229, filed May 22, 2007 and entitled “Determining Road TrafficConditions Using Data from Multiple Data Sources,” now U.S. Pat. No.7,912,628, which is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/752,229 is a continuation-in-part ofU.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/367,463, filed Mar. 3, 2006 andentitled “Dynamic Time Series Prediction Of Future Traffic Conditions”,now U.S. Pat. No. 7,813,870; is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 11/431,980, filed May 11, 2006 and entitled“Identifying Unrepresentative Road Traffic Condition Data Obtained FromMobile Data Sources,” now abandoned, which claims the benefit ofprovisional U.S. Patent Application No. 60/778,946, filed Mar. 3, 2006and entitled “Obtaining Road Traffic Condition Information From MobileData Sources,” and the benefit of provisional U.S. Patent ApplicationNo. 60/789,741, filed Apr. 5, 2006 and entitled “Assessing Road TrafficConditions Using Data From Mobile Data Sources”; and is acontinuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/540,342,filed Sep. 28, 2006 and entitled “Rectifying Erroneous Road TrafficSensor Data,” now U.S. Pat. No. 7,706,965, which claims the benefit ofU.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 60/838,700, filed Aug. 18, 2006and entitled “Correcting Road Traffic Condition Data.” Each of theseapplications is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.

This application also claims the benefit of provisional U.S. PatentApplication No. 60/838,700, filed Aug. 18, 2006 and entitled “CorrectingRoad Traffic Condition Data;” which is hereby incorporated by referencein its entirety.

This application is also related to U.S. patent application Ser. No.11/473,861, filed Jun. 22, 2006 and entitled “Obtaining Road TrafficCondition Data From Mobile Data Sources”; to U.S. patent applicationSer. No. 11/432,603, filed May 11, 2006 and entitled “Assessing RoadTraffic Speed Using Data Obtained From Mobile Data Sources”; to U.S.patent application Ser. No. 11/438,822, filed May 22, 2006 and entitled“Assessing Road Traffic Flow Conditions Using Data Obtained From MobileData Sources”; to U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/444,998, filed May31, 2006 and entitled “Filtering Road Traffic Condition Data ObtainedFrom Mobile Data Sources”; to U.S. patent application Ser. No.11/556,648, filed Nov. 3, 2006 and entitled “Detecting Anomalous RoadTraffic Conditions”; and to U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/556,670,filed Nov. 3, 2006 and entitled “Displaying Road Traffic ConditionInformation and User Controls”; each of which is hereby incorporated byreference in its entirety.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The following disclosure relates generally to techniques for determiningroad traffic conditions based on data obtained from various datasources, such as by inferring current traffic-related information and/orpredicting future traffic-related information for roads of interestbased in part on data samples that reflect actual travel on those roads.

BACKGROUND

As road traffic has continued to increase at rates greater thanincreases in road capacity, the effects of increasing traffic congestionhave had growing deleterious effects on business and governmentoperations and on personal well-being. Accordingly, efforts have beenmade to combat the increasing traffic congestion in various ways, suchas by obtaining information about current traffic conditions andproviding the information to individuals and organizations. Such currenttraffic condition information may be provided to interested parties invarious ways (e.g., via frequent radio broadcasts, an Internet Web sitethat displays a map of a geographical area with color-coded informationabout current traffic congestion on some major roads in the geographicalarea, information sent to cellular telephones and other portableconsumer devices, etc.).

One source for obtaining information about current traffic conditionsincludes observations supplied by humans (e.g., traffic helicopters thatprovide general information about traffic, reports from drivers viacellphones, etc.), while another source in some larger metropolitanareas is networks of traffic sensors capable of measuring traffic forvarious roads in the area (e.g., via sensors embedded in the roadpavement). While human-supplied observations may provide some value inlimited situations, such information is typically limited to only a fewareas at a time and typically lacks sufficient detail to be ofsignificant use.

Traffic sensor networks can provide more detailed information abouttraffic conditions on some roads in some situations. However, variousproblems exist with respect to such information, as well as toinformation provided by other similar sources. For example, many roadsdo not have road sensors (e.g., geographic areas that do not havenetworks of road sensors and/or arterial roads that are not sufficientlylarge to have road sensors as part of a nearby network), and even roadsthat have road sensors may often not provide accurate data, whichgreatly diminishes the value of the data provided by the trafficsensors. One cause of inaccurate and/or unreliable data includes trafficsensors that are broken, and therefore provide no data, intermittentdata, or data readings that are incorrect. Another cause of inaccurateand/or unreliable data includes temporary transmission problems in datafrom one or more sensors, resulting in intermittent delivery, delayeddelivery, or no delivery of data. In addition, many traffic sensors arenot configured or designed to report information about their operationalstatus (e.g., whether they are functioning normally or not), and even ifoperational status information is reported it may be incorrect (e.g.reporting that they are functioning normally when in fact they are not),thus making it difficult or impossible to determine if data provided bythe traffic sensors is accurate. Furthermore, some traffic-relatedinformation may be available only in raw and/or disaggregated form, andtherefore may be of limited utility.

In addition, even if accurate and timely information about currenttraffic conditions was available, such current traffic conditionsinformation does not indicate future traffic conditions of interest.Limited attempts have been made to generate and provide informationabout possible future traffic conditions, but such attempts havetypically suffered from inaccuracies in the generated information, aswell as various other problems. For example, some efforts to provideinformation about possible future traffic conditions have merelycalculated and provided historical averages of accumulated data. Whilesuch historical averages may occasionally produce information for aparticular place at a particular day and time that is temporarilysimilar to actual conditions, such historical averages cannot adapt toreflect specific current conditions that can greatly affect traffic(e.g., weather problems, traffic accidents, current road work,non-periodic events with large attendance, etc.), nor can they typicallyaccommodate general changes over time in the amount of traffic, and thusthe generated information can be of little practical use for planningpurposes.

Thus, it would be beneficial to provide improved techniques forobtaining and assessing traffic-related information, such as todetermine current traffic-related information and/or predicted futuretraffic-related information for roads of interest, as well as to providevarious additional related capabilities and benefits.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating data flow between components ofan embodiment of a system for assessing road traffic conditions based atleast in part on data obtained from vehicles and other mobile datasources.

FIGS. 2A-2E illustrate examples of assessing road traffic conditionsbased at least in part on data obtained from vehicles and other mobiledata sources.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating a computing system suitable forexecuting an embodiment of the described Data Sample Manager system.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data SampleFilterer routine.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data SampleOutlier Eliminator routine.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data Sample SpeedAssessor routine.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of Data Sample FlowAssessor routine.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Mobile DataSource Information Provision routine.

FIGS. 9A-9C illustrate examples of actions of mobile data sources inobtaining and providing information about road traffic conditions.

FIGS. 10A-10B illustrate examples of rectifying data samples obtainedfrom road traffic sensors.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Error Detector routine.

FIG. 12 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Error Corrector routine.

FIG. 13 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Aggregator routine.

FIG. 14 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Traffic FlowEstimator routine.

FIGS. 15A-15F illustrate examples of travel route selection based onpredicted future traffic conditions.

FIGS. 16A-16J illustrate various graphical representations of predictivemodels for representing knowledge about traffic conditions in a givengeographic area.

FIG. 17 is a block diagram illustrating a computing system suitable forexecuting an embodiment of the described Predictive Traffic InformationProvider system.

FIG. 18 is a flow diagram of an embodiment of a Route Selector routine.

FIGS. 19A-19B are flow diagrams of embodiments of a Dynamic TrafficPredictor routine and an associated Generate Predictions subroutine.

FIG. 20 is a flow diagram of an embodiment of a Traffic Prediction ModelGenerator routine.

FIGS. 21A-21J illustrate example displays of various traffic-relatedinformation and user-selected controls, including using predictions offuture traffic conditions and comparisons to normal traffic conditions.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Techniques are described for assessing road traffic conditions invarious ways based on obtained traffic-related data, such as datasamples from vehicles and other mobile data sources traveling on theroads and/or from road traffic sensors (e.g., physical sensors that areembedded in or otherwise near to the roads). The assessment of roadtraffic conditions based on obtained data samples (e.g., data readingsfrom road traffic sensors, individual or aggregated data points frommobile data sources, etc.) may include various filtering and/orconditioning of the data samples, and various inferences andprobabilistic determinations of traffic-related characteristics ofinterest.

As noted, in some embodiments obtained road traffic conditioninformation data may include multiple data samples, including datasamples provided by mobile data sources (e.g., vehicles), data readingsfrom road-based traffic sensors (e.g., loop sensors embedded in roadpavement), and data from other data sources. The data may be analyzed invarious manners to facilitate determination of traffic conditioncharacteristics of interest, such as estimated average traffic speed andestimated total volume of vehicles for particular portions of roads ofinterest, and to enable such traffic condition determinations to beperformed in a realtime or near-realtime manner (e.g., within a fewminutes of receiving the underlying data samples). For example, obtaineddata may be conditioned in various ways in order to detect and/orcorrect errors in the data. Obtained road traffic condition informationdata may further be filtered in various ways in various embodiments inorder to remove data from consideration if it is inaccurate or otherwiseunrepresentative of actual traffic condition characteristics ofinterest, including by identifying data samples that are not of interestbased at least in part on roads with which the data samples areassociated and/or data samples that are statistical outliers withrespect to other data samples—in some embodiments, the filtering mayfurther include performing the associating of the data samples withparticular roads. The filtered data samples may further include datasamples that otherwise reflect vehicle locations or activities that arenot of interest (e.g., parked vehicles, vehicles circling in a parkinglot or structure, etc.) and/or data samples that are otherwiseunrepresentative of actual vehicle travel on roads of interest.Assessing obtained data may in at least some embodiments includedetermining traffic conditions (e.g., average traffic speed or othermeasurements of traffic flow) for various portions of a road network ina particular geographic area, based at least in part on obtained datasamples. The assessed data may then be utilized in order to performother functions related to analyzing, predicting, forecasting, and/orproviding traffic-related information. In at least some embodiments, adata sample manager system uses at least some of the describedtechniques to prepare data for use by traffic data clients, such as apredictive traffic information provider system that generates multiplepredictions of traffic conditions at multiple future times, as describedin greater detail below.

In some embodiments, the conditioning of obtained data samples mayinclude rectifying erroneous data samples, such as by detecting and/orcorrecting errors present in the data in various ways (e.g., for datareadings received from road traffic sensors). In particular, techniquesare described for assessing the “health” of particular data sources(e.g., road-based traffic sensors) in order to determine whether thedata sources are operating correctly and reliably providing accuratedata samples, such as based on analysis of the data samples provided bythose data sources. For example, in some embodiments, current datareadings provided by a given traffic sensor may be compared to past datareadings provided by that traffic sensor (e.g., historical average data)in order to determine whether the current traffic data readings aresignificantly different than typical past data readings, such as may becaused by the traffic sensor operating incorrectly and/or other problemsin the data, and/or may instead reflect unusual current trafficconditions. Such detection and analysis of possible errors withparticular data sources and/or in current traffic data readings may beperformed in various ways in various embodiments, as discussed ingreater detail below, including based at least in part on classificationtechniques such as by using neural networks, Bayesian classifiers,decision trees, etc.

After detecting unreliable data samples, such as from broken datasources that are operating incorrectly, such unreliable data samples (aswell as missing data samples) may be corrected or otherwise rectified invarious ways. For example, missing and unreliable data samples for oneor more data sources (e.g., traffic sensors) may be rectified in someembodiments by using one or more other sources of related information,such as via contemporaneous data samples from nearby or otherwiserelated traffic sensors that are operating correctly (e.g., by averagingdata readings provided by adjacent traffic sensors), via predictiveinformation related to the missing and unreliable data samples (e.g., bydetermining expected data readings for the one or more data sourcesusing predicted and/or forecast traffic condition information for thosedata sources), via historical information for the one or more datasources (e.g., by utilizing historical average data readings), viaadjustments to incorrect data samples using information about consistentbias or other types of errors causing errors that can be compensatedfor, etc. Additional details related to rectifying missing andunreliable data samples are included below.

In addition, techniques are described for further estimating trafficcondition information in various other ways, such as in cases wherecurrently available data may not allow rectification of data samples fora particular data source (e.g., a particular traffic sensor) to bereliably performed. For example, the presence of multiple nearbyunhealthy traffic sensors that are operating incorrectly may result inthere being insufficient data to assess traffic flow information withsufficient confidence for individual ones of those traffic sensors. Insuch cases, traffic condition information may be estimated in variousother ways, including based on groups of related traffic sensors and/orother information related to the structure of a road network. Forexample, as described in greater detail below, each road of interest maybe modeled or represented by the use of multiple road segments, each ofwhich may have multiple associated traffic sensors and/or available datafrom one or more other data sources (e.g., mobile data sources). If so,road traffic condition information may be estimated for a particularroad segment (or other group of multiple related traffic sensors) invarious ways, such as by using traffic condition information assessedfor neighboring road segments, predicted information for the particularroad segment (e.g., that is generated for a limited future time period,such as three hours, based at least in part on current and recentconditions at a time of the predicting), forecast information for theparticular road segment (e.g., that is generated for a longer futuretime period, such as two weeks or longer, in a manner that does not usesome or all of the current and recent condition information used forpredicting), historical average conditions for the particular roadsegment, etc. By utilizing such techniques, traffic conditioninformation may be provided even in the presence of little or no currenttraffic condition data for one or more nearby traffic sensors or otherdata sources. Additional details related to such traffic conditioninformation estimation are included below.

As previously noted, information about road traffic conditions may beobtained from mobile data sources in various manners in variousembodiments. In at least some embodiments, the mobile data sourcesinclude vehicles on the road, which may each include one or morecomputing systems that provide data about movement of the vehicle. Forexample, each vehicle may include a GPS (“Global Positioning System”)device and/or other geo-location device capable of determining thegeographic location, speed, direction, and/or other data thatcharacterizes or is otherwise related to the vehicle's travel, and oneor more devices on the vehicle (whether the geo-location device(s) or adistinct communication device) may from time to time provide such data(e.g., by way of a wireless link) to one or more systems able to use thedata (e.g., a data sample manager system, as described in more detailbelow). Such vehicles may include, for example, a distributed network ofvehicles operated by individual unrelated users, fleets of vehicles(e.g., for delivery companies, taxi and bus companies, transportationcompanies, governmental bodies or agencies, vehicles of a vehicle rentalservice, etc.), vehicles that belong to commercial networks providingrelated information (e.g., the OnStar service), a group of vehiclesoperated in order to obtain such traffic condition information (e.g., bytraveling over predefined routes, or by traveling over roads asdynamically directed, such as to obtain information about roads ofinterest), vehicles with on-board cellphone devices (e.g., as built-inequipment and/or in the possession of a vehicle occupant) capable ofproviding location information (e.g., based on GPS capabilities of thedevices and/or based on geo-location capabilities provided by thecellular network), etc.

In at least some embodiments, the mobile data sources may include or bebased on computing devices and other mobile devices of users who aretraveling on the roads, such as users who are operators and/orpassengers of vehicles on the roads. Such user devices may includedevices with GPS capabilities (e.g., cellphones and other handhelddevices), or location and/or movement information may instead beproduced in other manners in other embodiments. For example, devices invehicles and/or user devices may communicate with external systems thatcan detect and track information about devices (e.g., for devicespassing by each of multiple transmitters/receivers in a network operatedby the system), thus allowing location and/or movement information forthe devices to be determined in various manners and with various levelsof detail, or such external systems may otherwise be able to detect andtrack information about vehicles and/or users without interacting withdevices (e.g., camera systems that can observe and identify licenseplates and/or users' faces). Such external systems may include, forexample, cellular telephone towers and networks, other wireless networks(e.g., a network of Wi-Fi hotspots), detectors of vehicle transpondersusing various communication techniques (e.g., RFID, or “Radio FrequencyIdentification”), other detectors of vehicles and/or users (e.g., usinginfrared, sonar, radar or laser ranging devices to determine locationand/or speed of vehicles), etc.

The road traffic condition information obtained from the mobile datasources may be used in various ways, whether alone or in combinationwith other road traffic condition information from one or more othersources (e.g., from road traffic sensors). In some embodiments, suchroad traffic condition information obtained from mobile data sources isused to provide information similar to that from road sensors but forroads that do not have functioning road sensors (e.g., for roads thatlack sensors, such as for geographic areas that do not have networks ofroad sensors and/or for arterial roads that are not significantly largeto have road sensors, for road sensors that are broken, etc.), to verifyduplicative information that is received from road sensors or othersources, to identify road sensors that are providing inaccurate data(e.g., due to temporary or ongoing problems), etc. Moreover, roadtraffic conditions may be measured and represented in one or more of avariety of ways, whether based on data samples from mobile data sourcesand/or from traffic sensor data readings, such as in absolute terms(e.g., average speed; volume of traffic for an indicated period of time;average occupancy time of one or more traffic sensors or other locationson a road, such as to indicate the average percentage of time that avehicle is over or otherwise activating a sensor; one of multipleenumerated levels of road congestion, such as measured based on one ormore other traffic condition measures; etc.) and/or in relative terms(e.g., to represent a difference from typical or from maximum).

In some embodiments, some road traffic condition information may takethe form of data samples provided by various data sources, such as datasources associated with vehicles to report travel characteristics of thevehicles. Individual data samples may include varying amounts ofinformation. For example, data samples provided by mobile data sourcesmay include one or more of a source identifier, a speed indication, anindication of a heading or direction, an indication of a location, atimestamp, and a status identifier. The source identifier may be anumber or string that identifies the vehicle (or person or other device)acting as a mobile data source. In some embodiments, the mobile datasource identifier may be permanently or temporarily (e.g., for the lifeof the mobile data source; for one hour; for a current session of use,such as to assign a new identifier each time that a vehicle or datasource device is turned on; etc.) associated with the mobile datasource. In at least some embodiments, source identifiers are associatedwith mobile data sources in such a manner as to minimize privacyconcerns related to the data from the mobile data sources (whetherpermanently or temporarily associated), such as by creating and/ormanipulating the source identifiers in a manner that prevents the mobiledata source associated with an identifier from being identified based onthe identifier. The speed indication may reflect the instant or averagevelocity of the mobile data source expressed in various ways (e.g.,miles per hour). The heading may reflect a direction of travel and be anangle expressed in degrees or other measure (e.g., in compass-basedheadings or radians). The indication of location may reflect a physicallocation expressed in various ways (e.g., latitude/longitude pairs orUniversal Transverse Mercator coordinates). The timestamp may denote thetime at which a given data sample was recorded by the mobile datasource, such as in local time or UTC (“Universal Coordinated Time”)time. A status indicator may indicate the status of the mobile datasource (e.g., that the vehicle is moving, stopped, stopped with enginerunning, etc.) and/or the status of at least some of the sensing,recording, and/or transmitting devices (e.g., low battery, poor signalstrength, etc.).

In some embodiments, the network of roads in a given geographic regionmay be modeled or represented by the use of multiple road segments. Eachroad segment may be used to represent a portion of a road (or ofmultiple roads), such as by dividing a given physical road into multipleroad segments (e.g., with each road segment being a particular length,such as a one-mile length of the road, or with road segments beingselected to reflect portions of the road that share similar trafficcondition characteristics)—such multiple road segments may be successiveportions of the road, or may alternatively in some embodiments beoverlapping or have intervening road portions that are not part of anyroad segments. In addition, a road segment may represent one or morelanes of travel on a given physical road. Accordingly, a particularmulti-lane road that has one or more lanes for travel in each of twodirections may be associated with at least two road segments, with atleast one road segment associated with travel in one direction and withat least one other road segment associated with travel in the otherdirection. In addition, multiple lanes of a single road for travel in asingle direction may be represented by multiple road segments in somesituations, such as if the lanes have differing travel conditioncharacteristics. For example, a given freeway system may have express orhigh occupancy vehicle (“HOV”) lanes that may be beneficial to representby way of road segments distinct from road segments representing theregular (e.g., non-HOV) lanes traveling in the same direction as theexpress or HOV lanes. Road segments may further be connected to orotherwise associated with other adjacent road segments, thereby forminga network of road segments.

In some embodiments, various types of information is used to generatepredictions of future traffic conditions at multiple future times. Inparticular, in at least some embodiments, the predictions are generatedusing probabilistic techniques that incorporate various types of inputdata in order to repeatedly produce future time series predictions foreach of numerous road segments, such as in a real-time manner based onchanging current conditions for a network of roads in a given geographicarea. Moreover, in at least some embodiments one or more predictiveBayesian or other models are automatically created for use in generatingthe future traffic condition predictions for each geographic area ofinterest, such as based on observed historical traffic conditions forthose geographic areas. Predicted future traffic condition informationmay be used in a variety of ways to assist in travel and for otherpurposes, such as to plan optimal routes through a network of roadsbased on predictions about traffic conditions for the roads at multiplefuture times. In at least some embodiments, a predictive trafficinformation provider system uses the described techniques to generatesuch predictions, as described in greater detail elsewhere.

In some embodiments, the types of input data used to generatepredictions of future traffic conditions may include a variety ofcurrent, past, and expected future conditions, and outputs from theprediction process include the generated predictions of the expectedtraffic conditions on each of multiple target road segments of interestfor each of multiple future times (e.g., every 5, 15 or 60 minutes inthe future) within a pre-determined time interval (e.g., three hours, orone day), as discussed in greater detail below. For example, types ofinput data may include the following: information about current and pastamounts of traffic for various target road segments of interest in ageographic area, such as for a network of selected roads in thegeographic area; information about current and recent traffic accidents;information about current, recent and future road work; informationabout current, past and expected future weather conditions (e.g.,precipitation, temperature, wind direction, wind speed, etc.);information about at least some current, past and future scheduledevents (e.g., type of event, expected start and end times of the event,and/or a venue or other location of the event, etc., such as for allevents, events of indicated types, events that are sufficiently large,such as to have expected attendance above an indicated threshold (forexample, 1000 or 5000 expected attendees), etc.); and information aboutschool schedules (e.g., whether school is in session and/or the locationof one or more schools). Moreover, current and predicted future trafficconditions may be measured and represented in one or more of a varietyof ways, such as in absolute terms (e.g., average vehicle speed, volumeof traffic for an indicated period of time; average occupancy time ofone or more traffic sensors, such as to indicate the average percentageof time that a vehicle is over or otherwise activating the sensor; oneof multiple enumerated levels of roadway congestion, such as measuredbased on one or more other traffic condition measures; etc.) and/or inrelative terms (e.g., to represent a difference from typical or frommaximum). In addition, while in some embodiments the multiple futuretimes at which future traffic conditions are predicted are each pointsin time, in other embodiments such predictions may instead representmultiple time points (e.g., a period of time), such as by representingan average or other aggregate measure of the future traffic conditionsduring those multiple time points. Furthermore, some or all of the inputdata may be known and represented with varying degrees of certainty(e.g., expected weather), and additional information may be generated torepresent degrees of confidence in and/or other metadata for thegenerated predictions. In addition, the prediction of future trafficconditions may be initiated for various reasons and at various times,such as in a periodic manner (e.g., every five minutes), when any orsufficient new input data is received, in response to a request from auser, etc.

Some of the same types of input data may be used to similarly generatelonger-term forecasts of future traffic conditions (e.g., one week inthe future, or one month in the future) in some embodiments, but suchlonger-term forecasts may not use some of the types of input data, suchas information about current conditions at the time of the forecastgeneration (e.g., current traffic, weather, or other conditions). Inaddition, such longer-term forecasts may be generated less frequentlythan shorter-term predictions, and may be made so as to reflectdifferent future time periods than for shorter-term predictions (e.g.,for every hour rather than every 15 minutes).

The roads and/or road segments for which future traffic conditionpredictions and/or forecasts are generated may also be selected invarious manners in various embodiments. In some embodiments, futuretraffic condition predictions and/or forecasts are generated for each ofmultiple geographic areas (e.g., metropolitan areas), with eachgeographic area having a network of multiple inter-connected roads—suchgeographic areas may be selected in various ways, such as based on areasin which current traffic condition information is readily available(e.g., based on networks of road sensors for at least some of the roadsin the area) and/or in which traffic congestion is a significantproblem. In some such embodiments, the roads for which future trafficcondition predictions and/or forecasts are generated include those roadsfor which current traffic condition information is readily available,while in other embodiments the selection of such roads may be based atleast in part on one or more other factors (e.g., based on size orcapacity of the roads, such as to include freeways and major highways;based on the role the roads play in carrying traffic, such as to includearterial roads and collector roads that are primary alternatives tolarger capacity roads such as freeways and major highways; based onfunctional class of the roads, such as is designated by the FederalHighway Administration; etc.). In other embodiments, future trafficcondition predictions and/or forecasts may be made for a single road,regardless of its size and/or inter-relationship with other roads. Inaddition, segments of roads for which future traffic conditionpredictions and/or forecasts are generated may be selected in variousmanners, such as to treat each road sensor as a distinct segment; togroup multiple road sensors together for each road segment (e.g., toreduce the number of independent predictions and/or forecasts that aremade, such as by grouping specified numbers of road sensors together);to select road segments so as to reflect logically related sections of aroad in which traffic conditions are typically the same or sufficientlysimilar (e.g., strongly correlated), such as based on traffic conditioninformation from traffic sensors and/or from other sources (e.g., datagenerated from vehicles and/or users that are traveling on the roads, asdiscussed in greater detail below); etc.

In addition, future traffic condition prediction and/or forecastinformation may be used in a variety of ways in various embodiments, asdiscussed in greater detail below, including to provide such informationto users and/or organizations at various times (e.g., in response torequests, by periodically sending the information, etc.) and in variousways (e.g., by transmitting the information to cellular telephonesand/or other portable consumer devices; by displaying information tousers, such as via Web browsers and/or application programs; byproviding the information to other organizations and/or entities thatprovide at least some of the information to users, such as third partiesthat perform the information providing after analyzing and/or modifyingthe information; etc.). For example, in some embodiments, the predictionand/or forecast information is used to determine suggested travel routesand/or times, such as an optimal route between a starting location andan ending location over a network of roads and/or an optimal time toperform indicated travel, with such determinations based on predictedand/or forecast information at each of multiple future times for one ormore roads and/or road segments.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating data flow between components ofan embodiment of a Data Sample Manager system. The illustrated data flowdiagram is intended to reflect a logical representation of data flowbetween data sources, components of an embodiment of a Data SampleManager system, and traffic data clients. That is, actual data flow mayoccur via a variety of mechanisms including direct flows (e.g.,implemented by parameter passing or network communications such asmessages) and/or indirect flows via one or more database systems orother storage mechanisms, such as file systems. The illustrated DataSample Manager system 100 includes a Data Sample Filterer component 104,a Sensor Data Conditioner component 105, a Data Sample OutlierEliminator component 106, a Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107, aData Sample Flow Assessor component 108, and an optional Sensor DataAggregator component 110.

In the illustrated embodiment, the components 104-108 and 110 of theData Sample Manager system 100 obtain data samples from various datasources, including vehicle-based data sources 101, road traffic sensors103, and other data sources 102. Vehicle-based data sources 101 mayinclude multiple vehicles traveling on one or more roads, which may eachinclude one or more computing systems and/or other devices that providedata about the travel of the vehicle. As described in more detailelsewhere, each vehicle may include GPS and/or other geo-locationdevices capable of determining location, speed, and/or other datarelated to the vehicle's travel. Such data may be obtained by thecomponents of the described Data Sample Manager system by wireless datalinks (e.g., satellite uplink and/or cellular network) or in othermanners (e.g., via a physical wired/cabled connection that is made aftera vehicle arrives at the location with the physical location, such aswhen a fleet vehicle returns to its home base). Road traffic sensors 102may include multiple sensors that are installed in, at, or near variousstreets, highways, or other roads, such as loop sensors embedded in thepavement that are capable of measuring the number of vehicles passingabove the sensor per unit time, vehicle speed, and/or other data relatedto traffic flow. Data may similarly be obtained from the road trafficsensors 102 via wire-based or wireless-based data links. Other datasources 103 may include a variety of other types of data sources,including map services and/or databases that provide informationregarding road networks such as the connections between roads as well astraffic control information related to such roads (e.g., the existenceand/or location of traffic control signals and/or speed zones).

Although the illustrated data sources 101-103 in this example providedata samples directly to various components 104-108 and 110 of the DataSample Manager system 100, the data samples may instead be processed invarious ways in other embodiments prior to their provision to thosecomponents. Such processing may include organizing and/or aggregatingdata samples into logical collections based on time, location,geographic region, and/or the identity of the individual data source(e.g., vehicle, traffic sensor, etc.). In addition, such processing mayinclude merging or otherwise combining data samples into higher-order,logical data samples or other values. For example, data samples obtainedfrom multiple geographically co-located road traffic sensors may bemerged into a single, logical data sample by way of averaging or otheraggregation. Furthermore, such processing may include deriving orotherwise synthesizing data samples or elements of data samples based onone or more obtained data samples. For example, in some embodiments, atleast some vehicle-based data sources may each provide data samples thatinclude only a source identifier and a geographic location, and if sogroups of multiple distinct data samples provided periodically over aparticular time interval or other time period can thereby be associatedwith one another as having been provided by a particular vehicle. Suchgroups of data samples may then be further processed in order todetermine other travel-related information, such as a heading for eachdata sample (e.g. by calculating the angle between the position of adata sample and the position of a prior and/or subsequent data sample)and/or a speed for each data sample (e.g., by calculating the distancebetween the position of a data sample and the position of a prior and/orsubsequent data sample, and by dividing the distance by thecorresponding time).

The Data Sample Filterer component 104 obtains data samples from thevehicle-based data sources 101 and the other data sources 102 in theillustrated embodiment, and then filters the obtained data samplesbefore providing them to the Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component106 and optionally to the Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108. Asdiscussed in greater detail elsewhere, such filtering may includeassociating data samples with road segments corresponding to roads in ageographic area and/or identifying data samples that do not correspondto road segments of interest or that otherwise reflect vehicle locationsor activities that are not of interest. Associating data samples withroad segments may include using the reported location and/or heading ofeach data sample to determine whether the location and headingcorrespond to a previously defined road segment. Identifying datasamples that do not correspond to road segments of interest may includeremoving or otherwise identifying such data samples so that they willnot be modeled, considered, or otherwise processed by other componentsof the Data Sample Manager system 100—such data samples to be removedmay include those corresponding to roads of certain functional roadclasses (e.g., residential streets) that are not of interest, thosecorresponding to particular roads or road segments that are not ofinterest, those corresponding to portions or sections of roads that arenot of interest (e.g., ramps and collector/distributor lanes/roads forfreeways), etc. Identifying data samples that otherwise reflect vehiclelocations or activities that are not of interest may include identifyingdata samples corresponding to vehicles that are in an idle state (e.g.,parked with engine running), that are driving in a parking structure(e.g., circling at a very low speed), etc. In addition, filtering may insome embodiments include identifying road segments that are (or are not)of interest for presentation or further analysis. For example, suchfiltering may include analyzing variability of traffic flow and/or levelof congestion of various road segments within a particular time period(e.g., hour, day, week), such as to exclude some or all road segmentswith low intra-time period variability and/or low congestion (e.g., forroad segments for which sensor data readings are not available or whosefunctional road class otherwise indicates a smaller or less-traveledroad) from further analysis as being of less interest than other roadsand road segments.

The Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 assists in rectifyingerroneous data samples, such as by detecting and correcting errors inreadings obtained from the road traffic sensors 103. In someembodiments, data samples that are detected by the Sensor DataConditioner component as being unreliable are not forwarded on to othercomponents for use (or indications of the unreliability of particulardata samples are provided so that the other components can handle thosedata samples accordingly), such as to the Data Sample Outlier Eliminatorcomponent 106. If so, the Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component maythen determine whether sufficient reliable data samples are available,and initiate corrective action if not. Alternatively, in someembodiments and circumstances, the Sensor Data Conditioner component mayfurther perform at least some corrections to the data samples, asdiscussed in greater detail below, and then provide the corrected datato the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 (and optionally to othercomponents such as the Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component and/orthe Data Sample Flow Assessor component). Detecting erroneous datasamples may use various techniques, including statistical measures thatcompare the distribution of current data samples reported by a givenroad traffic sensor to the historical distribution of data samplesreported by that road traffic sensor during a corresponding time period(e.g., same day-of-week and time-of-day). The extent to which the actualand historical distributions differ may be calculated by statisticalmeasures, such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence, which provides aconvex measure of the similarity between two probability distributions,and/or by statistical information entropy. In addition, some roadsensors may report indications of sensor health, and such indicationsmay also be utilized to detect errors in obtained data samples. Iferrors are detected in obtained data samples, erroneous data samples maybe rectified in various ways, including by replacing such data sampleswith averages of adjacent (e.g., neighbor) data samples fromadjacent/neighbor road sensors that have not been determined to beerroneous. In addition, erroneous data samples may be rectified byinstead using previously or concurrently forecasted and/or predictedvalues, such as may be provided by a predictive traffic informationsystem. Additional details regarding predictive traffic informationsystems are provided elsewhere.

The Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component 106 obtains filtered datasamples from the Data Sample Filterer component 104 and/or conditionedor otherwise rectified data samples from the Sensor Data Conditionercomponent 105, and then identifies and eliminates from considerationthose data samples that are not representative of actual vehicle travelon the roads and road segments of interest. In the illustratedembodiment, for each road segment of interest, the component analyzes agroup of data samples that were recorded during a particular time periodand associated with the road segment (e.g., by the Data Sample Filterercomponent 104) in order to determine which, if any, should beeliminated. Such determinations of unrepresentative data samples may beperformed in various ways, including based on techniques that detectdata samples that are statistical outliers with respect to the otherdata samples in the group of data samples. Additional details regardingdata sample outlier elimination are provided elsewhere.

The Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107 obtains data samples fromthe Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component 106, such that the obtaineddata samples in the illustrated embodiment are representative of actualvehicle travel on the roads and road segments of interest. The DataSample Speed Assessor component 107 then analyzes the obtained datasamples to assess one or more speeds for road segments of interest forat least one time period of interest based on a group of the datasamples that have been associated with the road segment (e.g., by theData Sample Filterer component 104, or by readings from traffic sensorsthat are part of the road segment) and the time period. In someembodiments, the assessed speed(s) may include an average of the speedsfor multiple of the data samples of the group, possibly weighted by oneor more attributes of the data samples (e.g., age, such as to givegreater weight to newer data samples, and/or source or type of the datasamples, such as to vary the weight for data samples from mobile datasources or from road sensors so as to give greater weight to sourceswith higher expected reliability or availability) or by other factors.More details regarding speed assessment from data samples are providedelsewhere.

The Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108 assesses traffic flowinformation for road segments of interest for at least one time periodof interest, such as to assess traffic volume (e.g., expressed as atotal or average number of vehicles arriving at or traversing a roadsegment over a particular amount of time, such as per minute or hour),to assess traffic density (e.g., expressed as an average or total numberof vehicles per unit of distance, such as per mile or kilometer), toassess traffic occupancy (e.g., expressed as an average or total amountof time that vehicles occupy a particular point or region over aparticular amount of time, such as per minute or hour), etc. Theassessment of the traffic flow information in the illustrated embodimentis based at least in part on traffic speed-related information providedby the Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107 and the Data SampleOutlier Eliminator component 106, and optionally on traffic data sampleinformation provided by the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 andthe Data Sample Filterer component 104. Additional details regardingdata sample flow assessment are provided elsewhere.

If present, the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 aggregatessensor-based traffic condition information provided by the Sensor DataConditioner component 105, such as after the Sensor Data Conditionercomponent has removed any unreliable data samples and/or has rectifiedany missing and/or unreliable data samples. Alternatively, in otherembodiments the Sensor Data Aggregator component may instead perform anysuch removal and/or correction of missing and/or unreliable datasamples. In some cases, the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 mayprovide traffic flow information for each of various road segments byaggregating (e.g., averaging) information provided by the multipleindividual traffic sensors associated with each of those road segments.As such, when present, the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 mayprovide information that is complementary to assessed traffic conditioninformation provided by components such as the Data Sample SpeedAssessor component 107 and/or the Data Sample Flow Assessor component108, or may instead be used if data samples from mobile data sources arenot available at all or in sufficient quantity of reliable data samplesto allow other components such as the Data Sample Speed Assessorcomponent 107 and Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108 to provideaccurate assessed road traffic condition information.

The one or more traffic data clients 109 in the illustrated embodimentobtain assessed road traffic condition information (e.g., speed and/orflow data) provided by the Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107and/or the Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108, and may utilize suchdata in various ways. For example, traffic data clients 109 may includeother components and/or traffic information systems operated by theoperator of the Data Sample Manager system 100, such as a predictivetraffic information provider system that utilizes traffic conditioninformation in order to generate predictions of future trafficconditions at multiple future times, and/or a realtime (ornear-realtime) traffic information presentation or provider system thatprovides realtime (or near-realtime) traffic condition information toend-users and/or third-party clients. In addition, traffic data clients109 may include computing systems operated by third parties in order toprovide traffic information services to their customers. In addition,the one or more traffic data clients 109 may optionally in somecircumstances (e.g., in instances when insufficient data is availablefor the Data Sample Speed Assessor component and/or Data Sample FlowAssessor component to perform accurate assessments, and/or if no data isavailable from vehicle-based or other data sources) obtain road trafficcondition information provided by the Sensor Data Aggregator component110, whether instead of or in addition to data from the Data SampleSpeed Assessor component and/or Data Sample Flow Assessor component.

For illustrative purposes, some embodiments are described below in whichspecific types of road traffic conditions are assessed in specific ways,and in which such assessed traffic information is used in variousspecific ways. However, it will be understood that such road trafficcondition assessments may be generated in other manners and using othertypes of input data in other embodiments, that the described techniquescan be used in a wide variety of other situations, and that theinvention is thus not limited to the exemplary details provided.

FIGS. 2A-2E illustrate examples of assessing road traffic conditionsbased on data obtained from vehicles and other mobile data sources, suchas may be performed by an embodiment of the described Data SampleManager system. In particular, FIG. 2A illustrates an example of datasample filtering for an example area 200 with several roads 201, 202,203, and 204, and with a legend indication 209 indicating the directionof north. In, this example, road 202 is a divided, limited access roadsuch as a freeway or toll road, with two distinct groups of lanes 202 aand 202 b for vehicle travel in the west and east directions,respectively. Lane group 202 a includes an HOV lane 202 a 2 and multipleother regular lanes 202 a 1, and lane group 202 b similarly includes anHOV lane 202 b 2 and multiple other regular lanes 202 b 1. Road 201 isan arterial road with two lanes 201 a and 201 b for vehicle travel inthe south and north directions, respectively. Road 201 passes over road202 (e.g., via an overpass or bridge), and road 204 is an on-ramp thatconnects the northbound lane 201 b of road 201 to the eastbound lanegroup 202 b of road 202. Road 203 is a local frontage road adjoiningroad 202.

The roads depicted in FIG. 2A may be represented in various ways for useby the described Data Sample Manager system. For example, one or moreroad segments may be associated with each physical road, such as to havenorthbound and southbound road segments associated with the northboundlane 201 b and southbound lane 201 b, respectively. Similarly, at leastone westbound road segment and at least one eastbound road segment maybe associated with the westbound lane group 202 a and the eastbound lanegroup 202 b of road 202, respectively. For example, the portion of theeastbound lane group 202 b east of road 201 may be a separate roadsegment from the portion of the eastbound lane group 202 b west of road201, such as based on the road traffic conditions typically or oftenvarying between the road portions (e.g., due to a typically significantinflux of vehicles to lane group 202 b east of road 201 from the on-ramp204, such as that may typically cause greater congestion in lane group202 b to the east of road 201). In addition, one or more lane groups maybe decomposed into multiple road segments, such as if different lanestypically or often have differing road traffic condition characteristics(e.g., to represent any given portion of lane group 202 b as a firstroad segment corresponding to lanes 202 b 1 based on those lanes sharingsimilar traffic condition characteristics, and as a second road segmentcorresponding to HOV lane 202 b 2 due to its differing traffic conditioncharacteristics)—in other such situations, only a single road segmentmay be used for such a lane group, but some data samples (e.g., thosecorresponding to HOV lane 202 b 2) may be excluded from use (such as bya Data Sample Filterer component and/or a Data Sample Outlier Eliminatorcomponent) when assessing road traffic conditions for the lane group.Alternatively, some embodiments may represent multiple lanes of a givenroad as a single road segment, even if the lanes are used for travel inopposite directions, such as if the road traffic conditions aretypically similar in both directions—for example, frontage road 205 amay have two opposing lanes of travel, but may be represented by asingle road segment. Road segments may be determined at least in part ina variety of other ways in at least some embodiments, such as to beassociated with geographic information (e.g., physical dimensions and/orheading(s)) and/or traffic-related information (e.g., speed limits).

FIG. 2A further depicts multiple data samples 205 a-k reported bymultiple mobile data sources (e.g., vehicles, not shown) traveling inthe area 200 during a particular time interval or other time period(e.g. 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, etc.). Each of thedata samples 205 a-k is depicted as an arrow that indicates a headingfor the data sample, as reported by one of the multiple mobile datasources. The data samples 205 a-k are superimposed upon the area 200 insuch a manner as to reflect locations reported for each of the datasamples (e.g., expressed in units of latitude and longitude, such asbased on GPS readings), which may differ from the actual locations ofthe vehicle when that data sample was recorded (e.g., due to aninaccurate or erroneous reading, or due to a degree of variability thatis inherent for the location sensing mechanism used). For example, datasample 205 g shows a location that is slightly north of the road 202 b,which may reflect a vehicle that was pulled over off the north side oflane 202 b 2 (e.g., because of a mechanical malfunction), or it insteadmay reflect an inaccurate location for a vehicle that was in facttraveling in the eastbound direction in lane 202 b 2 or other lane. Inaddition, a single mobile data source may be the source of more than oneof the illustrated data samples, such as if both sample 205 i and sample205 h were reported by a single vehicle based on its travel eastboundalong road 202 during the time period (e.g., via a single transmissioncontaining multiple data samples for multiple prior time points, such asto report data samples every 5 minutes or every 15 minutes). Moredetails regarding storing and providing multiple acquired data samplesare included below.

The described Data Sample Manager system may in some embodiments, filterthe obtained data samples, such as to map data samples to predefinedroad segments and/or identify data samples that do not correspond tosuch road segments of interest. In some embodiments, a data sample willbe associated with a road segment if its reported location is within apredetermined distance (e.g., 5 meters) of the location of a road and/orlane(s) corresponding to the road segment and if its heading is within apredetermined angle (e.g., plus or minus 15 degrees) of the heading ofthe road and/or lanes(s) corresponding to the road segment. Roadsegments in the illustrated embodiment are associated with sufficientlocation-based information (e.g., heading of the road segment, physicalbounds of the road segment, etc.) to make such a determination, althoughin other embodiments the association of data samples to road segmentsmay be performed before the data samples are made available to the DataSample Manager system.

As an illustrative example, data sample 205 a may be associated with aroad segment corresponding to road 203, because its reported locationfalls within the bounds of road 203 and its heading is the same (ornearly the same) as at least one of the headings associated with road203. In some embodiments, when a single road segment is utilized torepresent multiple lanes some of which are traveling in oppositedirections, the heading of a data sample may be compared to bothheadings of the road segment in order to determine whether the datasample may be associated with the road segment. For example, data sample205 k has a heading approximately opposite that of data sample 205 a,but it may also be associated with the road segment corresponding toroad 203, if that road segment is utilized to represent the two opposinglanes of road 203.

However, due to the proximity of road 203 and lane group 202 a, it mayalso be possible that data sample 205 k reflects a vehicle traveling inlane group 202 a, such as if the reported location of data sample 205 kis within a margin of error for locations of vehicles traveling in oneor more of the lanes of lane group 202 a, since the heading of datasample 205 k is the same (or nearly the same) as the heading of lanegroup 202 a. In some embodiments, such cases of multiple possible roadsegments for a data sample may be disambiguated based on otherinformation associated with the data sample—for example, in this case,an analysis of the reported speed of data sample 205 k may be used toassist in the disambiguation, such as if lane group 202 a corresponds toa freeway with a 65 mph speed limit, road 203 is a local frontage roadwith a 30 mph speed limit, and a reported speed of the data sample is 75mph (resulting in an association with the freeway lane(s) being muchmore likely than an association with the local frontage road). Moregenerally, if the reported speed of data sample 205 k is more similar tothe observed or posted speed for road 203 than to the observed or postedspeed for lane group 202 a, such information may be used as part ofdetermining to associate the data sample with road 203 and not lanegroup 202 a. Alternatively, if the reported speed of data sample 205 kis more similar to the observed or posted speed for lane group 202 athan to the observed or posted speed for road 203, it may be associatedwith lane group 202 a and not road 203. Other types of information maysimilarly be used as part of such disambiguation (e.g., location;heading; status; information about other related data samples, such asother recent data samples from the same mobile data source; etc.), suchas part of a weighted analysis to reflect a degree of match for eachtype of information for a data sample to a candidate road segment.

For example, with respect to associating data sample 205 b to anappropriate road segment, its reported location occurs at an overlapbetween lane 201 b and lane group 202 a, and is near lane 201 a as wellas other roads. However, the reported heading of the data sample(approximately northbound) matches the heading of lane 201 b(northbound) much more closely than that of other candidate lanes/roads,and thus it will likely be associated with the road segmentcorresponding to lane 201 b in this example. Similarly, data sample 205c includes a reported location that may match multiple roads/lanes(e.g., lane 201 a, lane 201 b, and lane group 202 a), but its heading(approximately westbound) may be used to select a road segment for lanegroup 202 a as the most appropriate road segment for the data sample.

Continuing with this example, data sample 205 d may not be associatedwith any road segment, because its heading (approximately eastbound) isin the opposite direction as that of lane group 202 a (westbound) whoseposition corresponds to the data sample's reported location. If thereare no other appropriate candidate road segments that are near enough(e.g., within a predetermined distance) to the reported location of datasample 205 d, such as if lane group 202 b with a similar heading is toofar way, this data sample may be excluded during filtering fromsubsequent use in analysis of the data samples.

Data sample 205 e may be associated with a road segment corresponding tolane group 202 a, such as a road segment corresponding to HOV lane 202 a2, since its reported location and heading correspond to the locationand heading of that lane, such as if a location-based technique used forthe location of the data sample has sufficient resolution todifferentiate between lanes (e.g., differential GPS, infrared, sonar, orradar ranging devices). Data samples may also be associated with aparticular lane of a multi-lane road based on factors other thanlocation-based information, such as if the lanes have differing trafficcondition characteristics. For example, in some embodiments the reportedspeed of a data sample may be used to fit or match the data sample to aparticular lane by modeling an expected distribution (e.g., a normal orGaussian distribution) of observed speeds (or other measures of trafficflow) of data samples for each such candidate lane and determining abest fit for the data sample to the expected distributions. For example,data sample 205 e may be associated with the road segment correspondingto HOV lane 202 a 2 because the reported speed of that data sample iscloser to an observed, inferred or historical average speed of vehiclestraveling in HOV lane 202 a 2 than to an observed, inferred orhistorical average speed for vehicles traveling in regular lanes 202 a1, such as by determining an observed or inferred average speed based onother data samples (e.g., using data readings provided by one or moreroad traffic sensors) and/or analysis of other related current data.

In a similar manner, data samples 205 f, 205 h, 205 i, and 205 j may beassociated with the road segments corresponding to lane 201 a, lanes 202b 1, lanes 202 b 1, and ramp 204, respectively, because their reportedlocations and headings correspond to the locations and headings of thoseroads or lanes.

Data sample 205 g may be associated with a road segment corresponding tolane group 202 b (e.g., a road segment for HOV lane 202 b 2) even thoughits reported location is outside of the bounds of the illustrated road,because the reported location may be within the predetermined distance(e.g., 5 meters) of the road. Alternatively, data sample 205 g may notbe associated with any road segment if its reported location issufficiently far from the road. In some embodiments, differentpredetermined distances may be used for data samples provided bydifferent data sources, such as to reflect a known or expected level ofaccuracy of the data source. For example, data samples provided bymobile data sources that utilize uncorrected GPS signals may use arelatively high (e.g., 30 meters) predetermined distance, whereas datasamples provided by mobile data sources utilizing differential-correctedGPS devices may be compared using a relatively low (e.g., 1 meter)predetermined distance.

In addition, data sample filtering may include identifying data samplesthat do not correspond to road segments of interest and/or areunrepresentative of actual vehicle travel on the roads. For instance,some data samples may be removed from consideration because they havebeen associated with roads that are not being considered by the DataSample Manager system. For example, in some embodiments, data samplesassociated with roads of lesser functional road classes (e.g.,residential streets and/or arterials) may be filtered. Referring back toFIG. 2A, for example, data samples 205 a and/or 205 k may be filteredbecause road 203 is a local frontage road that is of a sufficiently lowfunctional classification to not be considered by the Data SampleManager system, or data sample 205 j may be filtered because the on-rampis too short to be of interest separate from the freeway. Filtering mayfurther be based on other factors, such as inferred or reported activityof mobile data sources relative to the inferred or reported activity ofother mobile data sources on one or more road segments. For example, aseries of data samples associated with a road segment and provided by asingle mobile data source that all indicate the same location likelyindicates that the mobile data source has stopped. If all other datasamples associated with the same road segment indicate moving mobiledata sources, the data samples corresponding to the stopped mobile datasource may be filtered out as being unrepresentative of actual vehicletravel on the road segment, such as due to the mobile data source beinga parked vehicle. Furthermore, in some embodiments, data samples mayinclude reported indications of the driving status of the vehicle (e.g.,that the vehicle transmission is in “park” with the engine running, suchas a vehicle stopped to make a delivery), and if so such indications maysimilarly be used to filter such data samples as being unrepresentativeof actual traveling vehicles.

FIG. 2B illustrates a graphical view of multiple data samples associatedwith a single road segment obtained from multiple data sources during aparticular time interval or other time period, with the data samplesplotted on a graph 210 with time measured on the x-axis 210 b and speedmeasured on the y-axis 210 a. In this example, the illustrated datasamples have been obtained from multiple mobile data sources as well asone or more road traffic sensors associated with the road segment, andare shown with differing shapes as illustrated in the displayed legend(i.e., with darkened diamonds (“♦”) for data samples obtained from roadtraffic sensors, and with open squares (“□”) for data samples obtainedfrom mobile data sources). The illustrated data samples from mobile datasources may have been associated with the road segment as described withreference to FIG. 2A.

Exemplary data samples include road traffic sensor data samples 211 a-cand mobile data source data samples 212 a-d. The reported speed andrecording time of a given data sample may be determined by its positionon the graph. For example, mobile data source data sample 212 d has areported speed of 15 miles per hour (or other speed unit) and wasrecorded at a time of approximately 37 minutes (or other time unit)relative to some starting point. As will be described in more detailbelow, some embodiments may analyze or otherwise process obtained datasamples within particular time windows during the time period beingrepresented, such as time window 213. In this example, time window 213contains data samples recorded during a 10-minute interval from time 30minutes to time 40 minutes. In addition, some embodiments may furtherpartition the group of data samples occurring within a particular timewindow into two or more groups, such as group 214 a and group 214 b. Forexample, it will be noted that the illustrated data samples appear toreflect a bi-modal distribution of reported speeds, with the bulk of thedata samples reporting speeds in the range of 25-30 miles per hour or inthe range of 0-8 miles per hour. Such a bi-modal or other multi-modaldistribution of speeds may occur, for example, because the underlyingtraffic flow patterns are non-uniform, such as due to a traffic controlsignal that causes traffic to flow in a stop-and-go pattern, or to theroad segment including multiple lanes of traffic that are moving atdifferent speeds (e.g., an HOV or express lane with relatively higherspeeds than other non-HOV lanes). In the presence of such multi-modaldistributions of speed data, some embodiments may partition the datasamples into two or more groups for further processing, such as toproduce improved accuracy or resolution of processing (e.g., bycalculating distinct average speeds that more accurately reflect thespeeds of various traffic flows) as well as additional information ofinterest (e.g., the speed differential between HOV traffic and non-HOVtraffic), or to identify a group of data samples to exclude (e.g., tonot include HOV traffic as part of a subsequent analysis). While notillustrated here, such distinct groups of data samples may be identifiedin various ways, including by modeling a distinct distribution (e.g., anormal or Gaussian distribution) for the observed speeds of each group.

FIG. 2C illustrates an example of performing data sample outlierelimination to filter or otherwise exclude from consideration those datasamples that are unrepresentative of vehicles traveling on a particularroad segment, which in this example is based on the reported speed forthe data samples (although in other embodiments one or more otherattributes of the data samples could instead be used as part of theanalysis, whether instead of or in addition to the reported speeds). Inparticular, FIG. 2C shows a table 220 that illustrates data sampleoutlier elimination being performed on an example group of ten datasamples (in actual use, the numbers of data samples being analyzed maybe much larger). The illustrated data samples may, for example, be allof the data samples occurring within a particular time window (such astime window 213 of FIG. 2B), or alternatively may include only a subsetof the data samples of a particular time window (such as those includedin group 214 a or 214 b of FIG. 2B) or may include all data samplesavailable for a larger time period.

In the present example, unrepresentative data samples are identified asbeing statistical outliers with respect to other data samples in adetermined group of data samples by determining the deviation of thespeed of each data sample in a group of data samples from the averagespeed of the other data samples in the group. The deviation of each datasample may be measured, for example, in terms of the number of standarddeviations difference from the average speed of the other data samplesin the group, with data samples whose deviations are greater than apredetermined threshold (e.g., 2 standard deviations) being identifiedas outliers and being excluded from further processing (e.g., by beingdiscarded).

Table 220 includes a heading row 222 that describes the contents ofmultiple columns 221 a-f. Each row 223 a-j of table 220 illustrates adata sample outlier elimination analysis for a distinct one of the tendata samples, with column 221 a indicating the data sample beinganalyzed for each row—as each data sample is analyzed, it is excludedfrom the other samples of the group to determine the difference thatresults. The data sample of row 223 a may be referred to as the firstdata sample, the data sample of row 223 b may be referred to as thesecond data sample, and so on. Column 221 b contains the reported speedof each of the data samples, measured in miles per hour. Column 221 clists the other data samples in the group against which the data sampleof a given row will be compared, and column 221 d lists the approximateaverage speed of the group of data samples indicated by column 221 c.Column 221 e contains the approximate deviation between the speed of theexcluded data sample from column 221 b and the average speed listed incolumn 221 d of the other data samples, measured in number of standarddeviations. Column 221 f indicates whether the given data sample wouldbe eliminated, based on whether the deviation listed in column 221 e isgreater than 1.5 standard deviations for the purposes of this example.In addition, the average speed 224 for all 10 data samples is shown tobe approximately 25.7 miles per hour, and the standard deviation 225 ofall 10 data samples is shown to be approximately 14.2.

Thus, for example, row 223 a illustrates that the speed of data sample 1is 26 miles per hour. Next, the average speed of the other data samples2-10 is calculated as approximately 25.7 miles per hour. The deviationof the speed of data sample 1 from the average speed of the other datasamples 2-10 is then calculated as being approximately 0.02 standarddeviations. Finally, data sample 1 is determined to not be an outliersince its deviation is below the threshold of 1.5 standard deviations.Further, row 223 c illustrates that the speed of data sample 3 is 0miles per hour and that the average speed of the other data samples 1-2and 4-10 is calculated as approximately 28.6 miles per hour. Next, thedeviation of the speed of data sample 3 from the average speed of theother data samples 1-2 and 4-10 is calculated as approximately 2.44standard deviations. Finally, data sample 3 is determined to beeliminated as an outlier because its deviation is above the threshold of1.5 standard deviations.

More formally, given N data samples, v₀, v₁, v₂, . . . , v_(n), recordedin a given time period and associated with a given road segment, acurrent data sample v_(i) will be eliminated if

$\frac{{v_{i} - {\overset{\_}{v}}_{i}}}{\sigma_{i}} \geq c$where v_(i) is speed of the current data sample being analyzed; v _(i)is the average of the speed of the other data samples (v₀, . . . ,v_(i−1), v_(i+1), . . . , v_(n)); σ_(i) is the standard deviation of theother data samples; and c is a constant threshold (e.g., 1.5). Inaddition, as a special case to handle a potential division by zero, thecurrent sample v_(i) will be eliminated if the standard deviation of theother data samples, σ_(i), is zero and the speed of the current datasample is not equal to the average speed of the other data samples, v_(i).

Note that for each v_(i), it is not necessary to iterate over all of theother data samples (v₀, . . . , v_(i−1), v_(i+1), . . . , v_(n)) inorder to compute the average v _(i) and the standard deviation σ_(i).The average v _(i) of the other data samples v₀, . . . , v_(i−1),v_(i+1), . . . , v_(n) may be expressed as follows:

${\overset{\_}{v}}_{i} = \frac{{N\overset{\_}{v}} - v_{i}}{N - 1}$and the standard deviation σ_(i) of the other data samples v₀, . . . ,v_(i−1), v_(i+1), . . . , v_(n) may be expressed as follows:

$\sigma_{i} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N - 2}\left\lbrack {{\left( {N - 1} \right)\sigma^{2}} - \frac{{N\left( {v_{i} - \overset{\_}{v}} \right)}^{2}}{N - 1}} \right\rbrack}$where N is the total number of data samples (including the current datasample); v is the average of all of the data samples v₀, v₁, v₂, . . . ,v_(n); v_(i) is the current data sample, and σ is the standard deviationof all of the data samples v₀, v₁, v₂, . . . , v_(n). By utilizing theabove formulas, the averages and standard deviations may be efficientlycalculated, and in particular may be calculated in constant time. Sincethe above algorithm calculates an average and a standard deviation foreach data sample in each road segment, the algorithm runs in O(MN) time,where M is the number of road segments and N is the number of datasamples per road segment.

In other embodiments, other outlier detection and/or data eliminationalgorithms may be used, whether instead of or in addition to thedescribed outlier detection, such as techniques based on neural networkclassifiers, naïve Bayesian classifiers, and/or regression modeling, aswell as techniques in which groups of multiple data samples areconsidered together (e.g., if at least some data samples are notindependent of other data samples).

FIG. 2D illustrates an example of performing average speed assessmentusing data samples, and shows example data samples similar to thosedepicted in FIG. 2B for a particular road segment and period of time.The data samples have been plotted on a graph 230, with time measured onthe x-axis 230 b and speed measured on the y-axis 230 a. In someembodiments, the average speed for a given road segment may be computedon a periodic basis (e.g. every 5 minutes). Each computation mayconsider multiple data samples within a predetermined time window (orinterval), such as 10 minutes or 15 minutes. If average speeds arecomputed over such time windows, such as at or near the end of the timewindows, data samples within a time window may be weighted in variousmanners when aggregating the speeds of the data samples, such as to takeinto account the age of data samples (e.g., to discount older datasamples based on the intuition and the expectation that they do notprovide as accurate information as to the actual traffic conditions atthe end of the time window or other current time as younger data samplesrecorded relatively nearer the current time due to changing trafficconditions). Similarly, other data sample attributes may be consideredin some embodiments when weighting data samples, such as a type of datasource or a particular data source for a data sample (e.g., to weightdata samples more heavily if they come from a type of data source or aparticular data source that is believed to be more accurate than othersor to otherwise provide better data than others), as well as one or moreother types of weighting factors.

In the illustrated example, an average speed for the example roadsegment is computed every five minutes over a 15-minute time window. Theexample depicts the relative weights of two illustrative data samples,231 a and 231 b, as they contribute to the computed average speed ofeach of two time windows, 235 a and 235 b. The time window 235 aincludes data samples recorded between times 30 and 45, and the timewindow 235 b includes data samples recorded between times 35 and 50.Data samples 231 a and 231 b both fall within both time windows 235 aand 235 b.

In the illustrated example, each data sample in a given time window isweighted in proportion to its age. That is, older data samples weighless (and therefore contribute less to the average speed) than youngerdata samples. Specifically, the weight of a given data sample decreasesexponentially with age in this example. This decaying weighting functionis illustrated by way of two weight graphs 232 a and 232 b correspondingto time windows 235 a and 235 b, respectively. Each weight graph 232 aand 232 b plots data sample recording time on the x-axis (horizontal)against weight on the y-axis (vertical). Samples recorded later in time(e.g., nearer the end of the time window) weigh more than samplesrecorded earlier in time (e.g., nearer the beginning of the timewindow). The weight for a given data sample may be visualized bydropping a vertical line downwards from the data sample in graph 230 towhere it intersects with the curve of the weight graph corresponding tothe time window of interest. For example, weight graph 232 a correspondsto time window 235 a, and in accordance with the relative ages of datasamples 231 a (older) and 231 b (younger), the weight 233 a of datasample 231 a is less than the weight 233 b of data sample 231 b. Inaddition, weight graph 232 b corresponds to time interval 235 b, and itsimilarly can be seen that the weight 234 a of data sample 231 a is lessthan the weight 234 b of data sample 231 b. In addition, it is evidentthat the weight of a given data sample decays over time with respect tosubsequent time windows. For example, the weight 233 b of data sample231 b in time window 235 a is greater than the weight 234 b of the samedata sample 231 b in the later time window 235 b, because data sample231 b is relatively younger during time window 235 a compared to timewindow 235 b.

More formally, in one embodiment, the weight of a data sample recordedat time t with respect to a time ending at time T may be expressed asfollows:w(t)=e ^(−α(T−t))where e is the well-known mathematical constant and α is a variableparameter (e.g., 0.2). Given the above, a weighted average speed for Ndata samples v₀, v₁, v₂, . . . , v_(n), in a time interval ending attime T may be expressed as follows, with t_(i) being the time which datasample v_(i) represents (e.g., the time at which it was recorded):

${{Weighted}\mspace{14mu}{average}\mspace{14mu}{speed}} = \frac{\sum\limits_{i}^{n}\;{v_{i}{\mathbb{e}}^{- {\alpha{({T - t_{i}})}}}}}{\sum\limits_{i}^{n}{\mathbb{e}}^{- {\alpha{({T - t_{i}})}}}}$

Furthermore, an error estimate for the computed average speed may becomputed as follows:

${{Error}\mspace{14mu}{estimate}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{N}}$where N is the number of data samples and σ is the standard deviation ofthe samples v₀, v₁, v₂, . . . , v_(n) from the average speed. Otherforms of confidence values may similarly be determined for computed orgenerated average speeds in other embodiments.

As noted, data samples may be weighted based on other factors, whetherinstead of or in addition to recency of the data samples. For example,data samples may be time-weighted as described above but by utilizingdifferent weight functions (e.g., to have the weight of a data sampledecrease linearly, rather than exponentially, with age). In addition,data sample weighting may be further based on the total number of datasamples in the time interval of interest. For example, the variableparameter α described above may depend or otherwise vary based on thetotal number of data samples, such that greater numbers of data samplesresult in higher penalties (e.g., lower weights) for older data samples,to reflect the increased likelihood that there will be more low latency(e.g., younger) data samples available for purposes of computing averagespeed. Furthermore, data samples may be weighted based on other factors,including type of data source. For example, it may be the case thatparticular data sources (e.g., particular road traffic sensors, or alltraffic sensors of a particular network) are known (e.g., based onreported status information) or expected (e.g., based on historicalobservations) to be unreliable or otherwise inaccurate. In such cases,data samples obtained from such road traffic sensors (e.g., such as datasample 211 a of FIG. 2B) may be weighted less than data samples obtainedfrom mobile data sources (e.g., data sample 212 a of FIG. 2B).

FIG. 2E facilitates an example of performing traffic flow assessment forroad segments based on data samples, such as may include inferringtraffic volumes, densities, and/or occupancy. In this example, trafficvolume of a given road segment is expressed as a total number ofvehicles flowing in a given time window over the road segment or a totalnumber of vehicles arriving at the road segment during the time window,traffic density of a given road segment is expressed as a total numberof vehicles per unit distance (e.g., miles or kilometers), and trafficoccupancy is expressed as an average amount of time that a particularroad segment or point on the road segment is occupied by a vehicle.

Given a number of distinct mobile data sources observed to be travelingover a given road segment during a given time window, and a known orexpected percentage of total vehicles that are mobile data sources, itis possible to infer a total traffic volume—the total number of vehicles(including the vehicles that are not mobile data sources) traveling overthe road segment during the time window. From the inferred total trafficvolume, and assessed average speeds for vehicles on the road segment, itis possible to further calculate traffic density as well as roadoccupancy.

An unsophisticated approach to estimating total traffic volume of aparticular road segment during a particular time window would be tosimply divide the number of mobile data sample sources for that timewindow by the percentage of actual vehicles expected to be mobile datasample sources—thus, for example, if mobile data samples are receivedfrom 25 mobile data sources during the time window and 10% of the totalvehicles on the road segment are expected to be mobile data samplesources, the estimated total volume would be 250 actual vehicles for theamount of time of the time window. However, this approach may lead tolarge variability of volume estimates for adjacent time windows due tothe inherent variability of arrival rates of vehicles, particularly ifthe expected percentage of mobile data sample sources is small. As onealternative that provides a more sophisticated analysis, total trafficvolume of a given road segment may be inferred as follows. Given anobservation of a certain number of distinct mobile data sources (e.g.,individual vehicles), n, on a road segment of length l, during a givenperiod of time τ, Bayesian statistics can be utilized to infer anunderlying mean rate of arrival of mobile data sources, λ. The arrivalof mobile data sources on the stretch of road corresponding to the roadsegment may be modeled as a random, discrete process in time, andtherefore may be described by Poisson statistics, such that:

${p\left( {n❘\lambda} \right)} = \frac{\lambda^{n}{\mathbb{e}}^{- \lambda}}{n!}$From the above formula, a likelihood that n mobile data sources will beobserved may be calculated, given a mean arrival rate λ and an observednumber of vehicles n. For example, suppose a mean arrival rate of λ=10(vehicles/unit time) and an observation of n=5 vehicles. Substitutionyields

${p\left( {n❘\lambda} \right)} = {\frac{10^{5}{\mathbb{e}}^{10}}{5!} \approx 0.038}$indicating a 3.8% likelihood of actually observing n=5 vehicles.Similarly, the likelihood of actually observing 10 vehicles arriving(i.e., n=10) if the mean arrival rate is λ=10 (vehicles/unit time) isapproximately 12.5%.

The above formula may be utilized in conjunction with Bayes Theorem inorder to determine the likelihood of a particular arrival rate λ givenan observation of n. As is known, Bayes Theorem is:

${p\left( {\lambda ❘n} \right)} = \frac{{p\left( {n❘\lambda} \right)}{p(\lambda)}}{p(n)}$By substitution and constant elimination, the following may be obtained:

${p\left( {\lambda ❘n} \right)} \propto \frac{\lambda^{n}{\mathbb{e}}^{- \lambda}}{n!}$From the above, a proportional or relative likelihood of an arrival rateλ, given an observation of n mobile data sources, may be calculated,providing a probability distribution over possible values of λ givenvarious observed values for n. For a particular value of n, thedistribution of likelihoods over various arrival rate values allows asingle representative arrival rate value to be selected (e.g., a mean ora median) and a degree of confidence in that value to be assessed.

Furthermore, given a known percentage q of total vehicles on the roadthat are mobile data sources, also referred to as the “penetrationfactor”, the arrival rate volume of total traffic may be calculated as

${{Total}\mspace{14mu}{traffic}\mspace{14mu}{volume}} = \frac{\lambda}{q}$Total traffic volume for a road segment during a time period may in someembodiments alternatively be expressed as a total number of vehicles kflowing in time τ over a length l of the road segment.

FIG. 2E illustrates the probability distribution of various totaltraffic volumes given observed sample sizes, given an example mobiledata source penetration factor of q=0.014 (1.4%). In particular, FIG. 2Edepicts a three dimensional graph 240 that plots observed number ofmobile data sources (n) on the y-axis 241 against inferred trafficarrival rate volume on the x-axis 242 and against likelihood of eachinferred traffic volume value on the z-axis 243. For example, the graphshows that given an observed number of mobile data sources of n=0, thelikelihood that the actual traffic volume is near zero is approximately0.6 (or 60%), as illustrated by bar 244 a, and the likelihood that theactual traffic volume is near 143 vehicles per unit time isapproximately 0.1, as illustrated by bar 244 b. Furthermore, given anobserved number of mobile data sources of n=28, the likelihood that thetotal actual traffic volume is near 2143 vehicles per unit time(corresponding to approximately 30 mobile data sample sources per unittime, given the example penetration factor) is approximately 0.1, asillustrated by bar 244 c, which appears to be close to the median valuefor total actual traffic volume.

In addition, average occupancy and density may be calculated using theinferred total traffic arrival rate volume for a given road segment(representing a number of vehicles k arriving during time τ at the roadsegment), the assessed average speed v, and an average vehicle length d,as follows:

${{Vehicles}\mspace{14mu}{per}\mspace{14mu}{mile}},{m = \frac{k}{v\;\tau}}$Occupancy = mdAs previously described, the average speed v of vehicles on the roadsegment may be obtained by utilizing speed assessment techniques, suchas those described with reference to FIG. 2D.

FIGS. 10A-10B illustrate examples of conditioning and otherwiserectifying erroneous data samples from road traffic sensors, such asunreliable and missing data samples. In particular, FIG. 10A shows anumber of example data readings obtained from multiple traffic sensorsat various times, organized into a table 1000. The table 1000 includesmultiple data reading rows 1004 a-1004 y that each include a trafficsensor ID (“Identifier”) 1002 a that uniquely identifies the trafficsensor that provided the reading, a traffic sensor data reading value1002 b that includes traffic flow information reported by the trafficsensor, a time of traffic sensor data reading 1002 c that reflects thetime at which the data reading was taken by the traffic sensor, and atraffic sensor state 1002 d that includes an indication of theoperational state of the traffic sensor. In this example, only speedinformation is shown, although in other embodiments additional types oftraffic flow information may be reported by traffic sensors (e.g.,traffic volume and occupancy), and values may be reported in otherformats.

In the illustrated example, the data readings 1004 a-1004 y have beentaken by multiple traffic sensors at various times and recorded asrepresented in the table 1000. In some cases, data readings may be takenby traffic sensors on a periodic basis (e.g., every minute, every fiveminutes, etc.) and/or reported by the traffic sensors on such a periodicbasis. For example, traffic sensor 123 takes data readings every fiveminutes, as shown by data readings 1004 a-1004 d and 1004 f-1004 i thatillustrate a number of data readings taken by traffic sensor 123 between10:25 AM and 10:40 AM on two separate days (in this example, Aug. 13,2006 and Aug. 14, 2006).

Each illustrated data reading 1004 a-1004 y includes a data readingvalue 1002 b that includes traffic flow information observed orotherwise obtained by the data sensor. Such traffic flow information mayinclude the speed of one or more vehicles traveling at, near, or over atraffic sensor. For example, data readings 1004 a-1004 d show thattraffic sensor 123 observed, at four different times, vehicle speeds of34 miles per hour (mph), 36 mph, 42 mph, and 38 mph, respectively. Inaddition, traffic flow information may include total or incrementalcounts of vehicles traveling at, near, or over a traffic sensor, whetherinstead of or in addition to speed and/or other information. Totalcounts may be a cumulative count of vehicles observed by a trafficsensor since the sensor was installed or otherwise activated.Incremental counts may be a cumulative count of vehicles observed by atraffic sensor since the traffic sensor took a previous data reading.Data readings 1004 w-1004 x show that traffic sensor 166 counted, at twodifferent times, 316 cars and 389 cars, respectively. In some cases,recorded data readings may not include data reading values, such as whena given traffic sensor has experienced a sensor malfunction, such thatit cannot make or record an observation or report an observation (e.g.,due to a network failure). For example, data reading 1004 k shows thattraffic sensor 129 was unable to provide a data reading value at 10:25AM on the day of Aug. 13, 2006, as indicated by a “--” in the datareading value column 1002 b.

In addition, a traffic sensor state 1002 d may be associated with atleast some data readings, such as if a traffic sensor and/orcorresponding communications network provides an indication of theoperational state of the traffic sensor. Operational states in theillustrated embodiment include indications that a sensor is functioningproperly (e.g., OK), that a sensor is in a power-off state (e.g. OFF),that a sensor is stuck reporting a single value (e.g., STUCK), and/orthat a communications link to the network is down (e.g., COM_DOWN), asillustrated in data readings 1004 m, 1004 k, 1004 o, and 1004 s,respectively. In other embodiments, additional and/or differentinformation related to the operational state of a traffic sensor may beprovided, or such operational state information may not be available.Other traffic sensors, such as traffic sensors 123 and 166 in thisexample, are not configured to provide indications of traffic sensorstate, as indicated by a “--” in the traffic sensor state column 1002 d.

Rows 1004 e, 1004 j, 1004 n, 1004 q, 1004 v, and 1004 y and column 1002e indicate that additional traffic sensor data readings may be recordedin some embodiments and/or that additional information may be providedand/or recorded as part of each data reading. Likewise, in someembodiments, less information than is shown may be utilized as a basisfor the techniques described herein.

FIG. 10B illustrates examples of detecting errors in traffic sensor datareadings that may be indicative of unhealthy traffic sensors that areoperating incorrectly. In particular, because many traffic sensors maynot provide an indication of traffic sensor state, and because in somecases such indications of traffic sensor state may be unreliable (e.g.,indicating that a sensor is not functioning properly when in fact it is,or indicating that a sensor is functioning properly when in fact it isnot), it may be desirable to utilize statistical and/or other techniquesto detect unhealthy traffic sensors based on reported data readingvalues.

For example, in some embodiments, an unhealthy traffic sensor may bedetected by comparing a current distribution of data readings reportedby a given traffic sensor during a time period (e.g., between 4:00 PMand 7:29 PM) on a particular day to a historical distribution of datareadings reported by the traffic sensor during the same time period overmultiple past days (e.g., the past 120 days). Such distributions may begenerated by, for example, processing multiple data readings obtainedfrom a traffic sensor, such as those shown in FIG. 10A.

FIG. 10B shows three histograms 1020, 1030, and 1040 that eachrepresents a data reading distribution based on data readings obtainedfrom traffic sensor 123 during a time period of interest. The datarepresented in histograms 1020, 1030, and 1040 is discretized into 5mile per hour intervals (e.g., 0 to 4 miles per hour, 5 to 9 miles perhour, 10 to 14 miles per hour, etc.) and is normalized, such that eachbar (e.g. bar 1024) represents a probability between 0 and 1 thatvehicle speeds within the 5 mile per hour bucket for that bar occurredduring the time period (e.g., based on a percentage of data readingsduring the time period that fall within the bucket). For example, bar1024 indicates that vehicle speeds between 50 and 54 miles per hour wereobserved by traffic sensor 123 with a probability of approximately 0.23,such as based on approximately 23% of the data readings obtained fromtraffic sensor 123 having reported speeds between 50 and 54 miles perhour, inclusive. In other embodiments, one or more other bucket sizesmay be used, whether in addition to or instead of a 5 mph bucket. Forexample, a 1 mph bucket may provide a finer granularity of processing,but may also cause high variability between adjacent buckets ifsufficient data readings are not available for the time period, while a10 mph bucket would provide less variability but also less detail.Further, while the current example uses average speed as the measure foranalysis and comparison for data readings, one or more other measuresmay be used in other embodiments, whether instead of or in addition toaverage speed. For example, traffic volume and/or occupancy maysimilarly be used in at least some embodiments.

In this example, histogram 1020 represents a historical distribution ofdata readings taken by traffic sensor 123 between 9:00 AM and 12:29 PMon Mondays over the last 120 days. Histogram 1030 represents adistribution of data readings taken by sensor 123 between 9:00 AM and12:29 on a particular Monday when traffic sensor 123 was functioningproperly. It can be visibly discerned that the shape of histogram 1030resembles that of histogram 1020, given that traffic patterns on aparticular Monday would be expected to be similar to traffic patterns onMondays in general, and the degree of similarity may be computed invarious ways, as discussed below. Histogram 1040 represents adistribution of data readings taken by traffic sensor 123 between 9:00AM and 12:29 on a particular Monday when traffic sensor 123 was notfunctioning properly, and was instead outputting data readings that didnot reflect actual traffic flows. The shape of histogram 1040 differsmarkedly from that of histogram 1020, as is visibly discernible,reflecting the erroneous data readings reported by traffic sensor 123.For example, a large spike in the distribution is visible at bar 1048,which may be indicative of sensor 123 being stuck for at least some ofthe time between 9:00 AM and 12:30 PM and reporting a substantial numberof identical readings that were not reflective of actual traffic flows.

In some embodiments, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two trafficsensor data distributions may be utilized to determine the similaritybetween the two distributions, although in other embodimentssimilarities or differences between distributions may be calculated inother manners. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is a convex measure ofthe similarity of two probability distributions P and Q. It may beexpressed as follows,

${D_{KL}\left( {P{}Q} \right)} = {\sum\limits_{i}^{\;}\;{P_{i}{\log\left( \frac{P_{i}}{Q_{i}} \right)}}}$where P_(i) and Q_(i) are values of the discretized probabilitydistributions P and Q (e.g., each P_(i) and Q_(i) is the probabilitythat speeds within the i-th bucket occurred). In the illustratedexample, the Kullback-Leibler divergence (“DKL”) 1036 between the datareading distribution shown in histogram 1020 and the data readingdistribution shown in histogram 1030 for the healthy traffic sensor isapproximately 0.076, while the Kullback-Leibler divergence 1046 betweenthe data reading distribution shown in histogram 1020 and the datareading distribution shown in histogram 1040 for the unhealthy trafficsensor is approximately 0.568. As one might expect, the DKL 1036 issignificantly smaller than the DKL 1046 (in this case, approximately 13%of DKL 1046), reflecting the fact that histogram 1030 (e.g.,representing the output of traffic sensor 123 while it was functioningproperly) is more similar to histogram 1020 (e.g., representing theaverage behavior of traffic sensor 123) than histogram 1040 (e.g.,representing traffic sensor 123 while it was malfunctioning) is similarto histogram 1020.

In addition, some embodiments may use other statistical measures todetect erroneous data readings provided by traffic sensors, such asstatistical information entropy, whether instead of or in addition to asimilarity measure such as from the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Thestatistical entropy of a probability distribution is a measure of thediversity of the probability distribution. Statistical entropy of aprobability distribution P may be expressed as follows,

${H(P)} = {- {\sum\limits_{i}^{\;}\;{P_{i}\log\; P_{i}}}}$where P_(i) is a value of the discretized probability distributions P(e.g., each P_(i) is the probability that speeds within the i-th bucketof the histogram for P occurred). In the illustrated example, thestatistical entropy 1022 of the distribution shown in histogram 1020 isapproximately 2.17, the statistical entropy 1032 of the distributionshown in histogram 1030 is approximately 2.14, and the statisticalentropy 1042 of the distribution shown in histogram 1040 isapproximately 2.22. As one might expect, the statistical entropy 1042 isgreater than both the statistical entropy 1032 and the statisticalentropy 1022, reflecting the more chaotic output pattern exhibited bytraffic sensor 123 while it was malfunctioning.

In addition, the difference between two statistical entropy measures maybe measured by calculating the entropy difference measure. The entropydifference measure between two probability distributions P and Q may beexpressed asEM=∥H(P)−H(Q)∥²where H(P) and H(Q) are the entropies of the probability distributions Pand Q, respectively, as described above. In the illustrated example, theentropy difference measure (“EM”) 1034 between the distribution shown inhistogram 1020 and the distribution shown in histogram 1030 isapproximately 0.0010, and the entropy difference measure 1044 betweenthe distribution shown in histogram 1020 and the distribution shown inhistogram 1040 is approximately 0.0023. As one may expect, the entropydifference measure 1044 is significantly larger than the entropydifference measure 1034 (in this case, more than twice as large),reflecting the greater difference between the statistical entropy of thedistribution shown in histogram 1040 and the statistical entropy of thedistribution shown in histogram 1020, compared to the difference betweenthe statistical entropy of the distribution shown in histogram 1030 andthe statistical entropy of the distribution shown in histogram 1020.

The statistical measures described above may be utilized in various waysin order to detect unhealthy traffic sensors. In some embodiments,various information about a current data reading distribution isprovided as input to a sensor health (or data reading reliability)classifier, such as based on a neural network, Bayesian classifier,decision tree, etc. For example, the classifier input information mayinclude, for example, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between ahistorical data reading distribution for the traffic sensor and thecurrent data reading distribution for the traffic sensor, and thestatistical entropy of the current data reading distribution. Theclassifier then assesses the health of the traffic sensor based on theprovided inputs, and provides an output that indicates an unhealthy orhealthy sensor. In some cases, additional information may also beprovided as input to the classifier, such as an indication of thetime-of-day (e.g., a time period from 5:00 AM to 9:00 AM), day or daysof week (e.g., Monday through Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday)corresponding to the time-of-day and/or day-of-week to which the currentand historical data reading distributions correspond, size of the mphbuckets, etc. Classifiers may be trained by utilizing actual prior datareadings, such as those that include indications of traffic sensorstate, as illustrated in FIG. 10A.

In other embodiments, unhealthy traffic sensors may be identifiedwithout the use of a classifier. For example, a traffic sensor may bedetermined to be unhealthy if one or more statistical measures are abovea predetermined threshold value. For instance, a traffic sensor may bedetermined to be unhealthy if the Kullback-Leibler divergence between ahistorical data reading distribution for the traffic sensor and acurrent data reading distribution for the traffic sensor is above afirst threshold value, if the statistical entropy of the current datareading distribution is above a second threshold value, and/or if theentropy difference measure between the current data reading distributionand the historical data reading distribution is above a third threshold.In addition, other non-statistical information may be utilized, such aswhether the traffic sensor is reporting a sensor state that may beinterpreted as healthy or unhealthy.

As previously noted, although the above techniques are describedprimarily in the context of traffic sensors that report vehicle speedinformation, the same techniques may be utilized with respect to othertraffic flow information, including traffic volume, density, andoccupancy.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating an embodiment of a computingsystem 300 that is suitable for performing at least some of thedescribed techniques, such as by executing an embodiment of a DataSample Manager system. The computing system 300 includes a centralprocessing unit (“CPU”) 335, various input/output (“I/O”) components305, storage 340, and memory 345, with the illustrated I/O componentsincluding a display 310, a network connection 315, a computer-readablemedia drive 320, and other I/O devices 330 (e.g., keyboards, mice orother pointing devices, microphones, speakers, etc.).

In the illustrated embodiment, various systems are executing in memory345 in order to perform at least some of the described techniques,including a Data Sample Manager system 350, a Predictive TrafficInformation Provider system 360, a Key Road Identifier system 361, aRoad Segment Determiner system 362, an RT Information Provider system363, and optional other systems provided by programs 369, with thesevarious executing systems generally referred to herein as trafficinformation systems. The computing system 300 and its executing systemsmay communicate with other computing systems via a network 380 (e.g.,the Internet, one or more cellular telephone networks, etc.), such asvarious client devices 382, vehicle-based clients and/or data sources384, road traffic sensors 386, other data sources 388, and third-partycomputing systems 390.

In particular, the Data Sample Manager system 350 obtains variousinformation regarding current traffic conditions and/or previousobserved case data from various sources, such as from the road trafficsensors 386, vehicle-based mobile data sources 384 and/or other mobileor non-mobile data sources 388. The Data Sample Manager system 350 thenprepares the obtained data for use by other components and/or systems byfiltering (e.g., eliminating data samples from consideration) and/orconditioning (e.g., correcting errors) the data, and then assesses roadtraffic conditions such as traffic flow and/or speed for various roadsegments using the prepared data. In this illustrated embodiment, theData Sample Manager system 350 includes a Data Sample Filterer component352, a Sensor Data Conditioner component 353, a Data Sample OutlierEliminator component 354, a Data Sample Speed Assessor component 356, aData Sample Flow Assessor component 358, and an optional Sensor DataAggregator component 355, with the components 352-358 performingfunctions similar to those previously described for correspondingcomponents of FIG. 1 (such as the Data Sample Filterer component 104,the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105, the Data Sample OutlierEliminator component 106, the Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107,the Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108, and the optional SensorData Aggregator component 110). In addition, in at least someembodiments the Data Sample Manager system performs its assessment ofroad traffic conditions in a substantially realtime or near-realtimemanner, such as within a few minutes of obtaining the underlying data(which may be itself be obtained in a substantially realtime manner fromthe data sources).

The other traffic information systems 360-363 and 369 and/or thethird-party computing systems 390 may then use data provided by the DataSample Manager system in various ways. For example, the PredictiveTraffic Information Provider system 360 may obtain (either directly, orindirectly via a database or storage device) such prepared data togenerate future traffic condition predictions for multiple future times,and provide the predicted information to one or more other recipients,such as one or more other traffic information systems, client devices382, vehicle-based clients 384, and/or third-party computing systems390. In addition, the RT Information Provider system 363 may obtaininformation about assessed road traffic conditions from the Data SampleManager system, and make the road traffic condition informationavailable to others (e.g., client devices 382, vehicle-based clients384, and/or third-party computing systems 390) in a realtime ornear-realtime manner—when the Data Sample Manager system also performsits assessments in such a realtime or near-realtime manner, therecipients of the data from the RT Information Provider system may beable to view and use information about current traffic conditions on oneor more road segments based on contemporaneous actual vehicle travel onthose road segments (as reported by mobile data sources traveling onthose road segments and/or by sensors and other data sources providinginformation about actual vehicle travel on those road segments).

The client devices 382 may take various forms in various embodiments,and may generally include any communication devices and other computingdevices capable of making requests to and/or receiving information fromthe traffic information systems. In some cases, the client devices mayexecute interactive console applications (e.g., Web browsers) that usersmay utilize to make requests for traffic-related information (e.g.,predicted future traffic conditions information, realtime ornear-realtime current traffic conditions information, etc.), while inother cases at least some such traffic-related information may beautomatically sent to the client devices (e.g., as text messages, newWeb pages, specialized program data updates, etc.) from one or more ofthe traffic information systems.

The road traffic sensors 386 include multiple sensors that are installedin, at, or near various streets, highways, or other roads, such as forone or more geographic areas. These sensors may include loop sensorsthat are capable of measuring the number of vehicles passing above thesensor per unit time, vehicle speed, and/or other data related totraffic flow. In addition, such sensors may include cameras, motionsensors, radar ranging devices, RFID-based devices, and other types ofsensors that are located adjacent to or otherwise near a road and thatcan sense or otherwise detect passing vehicles. The road traffic sensors386 may periodically or continuously provide measured data readings viawire-based or wireless-based data link to the Data Sample Manager system350 via the network 380 using one or more data exchange mechanisms(e.g., push, pull, polling, request-response, peer-to-peer, etc.). Inaddition, while not illustrated here, in some embodiments one or moreaggregators of such road traffic sensor information (e.g., agovernmental transportation body that operates the sensors) may insteadobtain the raw data and make that data available to the trafficinformation systems (whether in raw form or after it is processed).

The other data sources 388 include a variety of types of other sourcesof data that may be utilized by one or more of the traffic informationsystems to provide traffic-related information to users, customers,and/or other computing systems. Such data sources include map servicesand/or databases that provide information regarding road networks, suchas the connectivity of various roads to one another as well as trafficcontrol information related to such roads (e.g., the existence andlocation of traffic control signals and/or speed zones). Other datasources may also include sources of information about events and/orconditions that impact and/or reflect traffic conditions, such asshort-term and long-term weather forecasts, school schedules and/orcalendars, event schedules and/or calendars, traffic incident reportsprovided by human operators (e.g., first responders, law enforcementpersonnel, highway crews, news media, travelers, etc.), road workinformation, holiday schedules, etc.

The vehicle-based clients/data sources 384 in this example may each be acomputing system and/or communication system located within a vehiclethat provides data to one or more of the traffic information systemsand/or that receives data from one or more of those systems. In someembodiments, the Data Sample Manager system 350 may utilize adistributed network of vehicle-based mobile data sources and/or otheruser-based mobile data sources (not shown) that provide informationrelated to current traffic conditions for use by the traffic informationsystems. For example, each vehicle or other mobile data source may havea GPS (“Global Positioning System”) device (e.g., a cellular telephonewith GPS capabilities, a stand-alone GPS device, etc.) and/or othergeo-location device capable of determining the geographic location, andpossibly other information such as speed, direction, elevation and/orother data related to the vehicle's travel, with the geo-locationdevice(s) or other distinct communication devices obtaining andproviding such data to one or more of the traffic information systems(e.g., by way of a wireless link) from time to time. Such mobile datasources are discussed in greater detail elsewhere.

Alternatively, some or all of the vehicle-based clients/data sources 384may each have a computing system and/or communication system locatedwithin a vehicle to obtain information from one or more of the trafficinformation systems, such as for use by an occupant of the vehicle. Forexample, the vehicle may contain an in-dash navigation system with aninstalled Web browser or other console application that a user mayutilize to make requests for traffic-related information via a wirelesslink from one of the traffic information systems, such as the PredictiveTraffic Information Provider system and/or RT Information Providersystem, or instead such requests may be made from a portable device of auser in the vehicle. In addition, one or more of the traffic informationsystems may automatically transmit traffic-related information to such avehicle-based client device based upon the receipt or generation ofupdated information.

The third-party computing systems 390 include one or more optionalcomputing systems that are operated by parties other than theoperator(s) of the traffic information systems, such as parties whoreceive traffic-related data from one or more of the traffic informationsystems and who make use of the data in some manner. For example, thethird-party computing systems 390 may be systems that receive trafficinformation from one or more of the traffic information systems, andthat provide related information (whether the received information orother information based on the received information) to users or others(e.g., via Web portals or subscription services). Alternatively, thethird-party computing systems 390 may be operated by other types ofparties, such as media organizations that gather and report trafficconditions to their consumers, or online map companies that providetraffic-related information to their users as part of travel-planningservices.

As previously noted, the Predictive Traffic Information Provider system360 may use data prepared by the Data Sample Manager system 350 andother components in the illustrated embodiment to generate futuretraffic condition predictions for multiple future times. In someembodiments, the predictions are generated using probabilistictechniques that incorporate various types of input data in order torepeatedly produce future time series predictions for each of numerousroad segments, such as in a realtime manner based on changing currentconditions for a network of roads in a given geographic area. Moreover,in at least some embodiments one or more predictive Bayesian or othermodels (e.g., decision trees) are automatically created for use ingenerating the future traffic condition predictions for each geographicarea of interest, such as based on observed historical trafficconditions for those geographic areas. Predicted future trafficcondition information may be used in a variety of ways to assist intravel and for other purposes, such as to plan optimal routes through anetwork of roads based on predictions about traffic conditions for theroads at multiple future times.

Furthermore, the Road Segment Determiner system 362 may utilize mapservices and/or databases that provide information regarding roadnetworks in one or more geographic areas in order to automaticallydetermine and manage information related to the roads that may be usedby other traffic information systems. Such road-related information mayinclude determinations of particular portions of roads to be treated asroad segments of interest (e.g., based on traffic conditions of thoseroad portions and other nearby road portions), as well as automaticallygenerated associations or relationships between road segments in a givenroad network and indications of other information of interest (e.g.,physical locations of road traffic sensors, event venues, and landmarks;information about functional road classes and other related trafficcharacteristics; etc.). In some embodiments, the Road Segment Determinersystem 362 may execute periodically and store the information itproduces in storage 340 or a database (not shown) for use by othertraffic information systems.

In addition, the Key Road Identifier system 361 utilizes a road networkrepresenting a given geographic area and traffic condition informationfor that geographic area to automatically identify roads that are ofinterest for tracking and assessing road traffic conditions, such as forused by other traffic information systems and/or traffic data clients.In some embodiments, the automatic identification of a road (or of oneor more road segments of the road) as being of interest may be based atleast in part on factors such as the magnitude of peak traffic volume orother flow, the magnitude of peak traffic congestion, intra-dayvariability of traffic volume or other flow, intra-day variability ofcongestion for the road, inter-day variability of traffic volume orother flow, and/or inter-day variability of congestion for the road.Such factors may be analyzed by way of, for example, principalcomponents analysis, such as by first computing a covariance matrix S oftraffic condition information for all roads (or road segments) in agiven geographic area, and then computing an Eigen decomposition of thecovariance matrix S. In descending order of Eigenvalue, the Eigenvectorsof S then represent the combinations of roads (or road segments) thatindependently contribute most strongly to the variance of the observedtraffic conditions.

In addition, a realtime traffic information provider or presenter systemmay be provided by the RT Information Provider system, or instead by oneor more of the other programs 369. The information provider system mayutilize data analyzed and provided by the Data Sample Manager system 350and/or other components (such as the Predictive Traffic InformationProvider system 360) in order to provide traffic information services toconsumers and/or business entities that are operating or otherwiseutilizing client devices 382, vehicle-based clients 384, third-partycomputing systems 390, etc., such as to provide data in a realtime ornear-realtime manner based at least in part on data samples obtainedfrom vehicles and other mobile data sources.

It will be appreciated that the illustrated computing systems are merelyillustrative and are not intended to limit the scope of the presentinvention. Computing system 300 may be connected to other devices thatare not illustrated, including through one or more networks such as theInternet or via the Web. More generally, a “client” or “server”computing system or device, or traffic information system and/orcomponent, may comprise any combination of hardware or software that caninteract and perform the described types of functionality, includingwithout limitation desktop or other computers, database servers, networkstorage devices and other network devices, PDAs, cellphones, wirelessphones, pagers, electronic organizers, Internet appliances,television-based systems (e.g., using set-top boxes and/orpersonal/digital video recorders), and various other consumer productsthat include appropriate inter-communication capabilities. In addition,the functionality provided by the illustrated system components may insome embodiments be combined in fewer components or distributed inadditional components. Similarly, in some embodiments the functionalityof some of the illustrated components may not be provided and/or otheradditional functionality may be available.

In addition, while various items are illustrated as being stored inmemory or on storage while being used, these items or portions of themcan be transferred between memory and other storage devices for purposesof memory management and/or data integrity. Alternatively, in otherembodiments some or all of the software components and/or modules mayexecute in memory on another device and communicate with the illustratedcomputing system via inter-computer communication. Some or all of thesystem components or data structures may also be stored (e.g., assoftware instructions or structured data) on a computer-readable medium,such as a hard disk, a memory, a network, or a portable media article tobe read by an appropriate drive or via an appropriate connection. Thesystem components and data structures can also be transmitted asgenerated data signals (e.g., as part of a carrier wave or other analogor digital propagated signal) on a variety of computer-readabletransmission mediums, including wireless-based and wired/cable-basedmediums, and can take a variety of forms (e.g., as part of a single ormultiplexed analog signal, or as multiple discrete digital packets orframes). Such computer program products may also take other forms inother embodiments. Accordingly, the present invention may be practicedwith other computer system configurations.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data SampleFilterer routine 400. The routine may be provided by, for example,execution of an embodiment of a Data Sample Filterer component 352 ofFIG. 3 and/or Data Sample Filterer component 104 of FIG. 1, such as toreceive data samples corresponding to roads in a geographic area and tofilter data samples that are not of interest for later assessments. Thefiltered data samples may then subsequently be used in various ways,such as to use the filtered data samples to calculate average speeds forparticular road segments of interest and to calculate other trafficflow-related characteristics for such road segments.

The routine begins in step 405, where a group of data samples isreceived for a geographic area for a particular period of time. In step410, the routine then optionally generates additional information forsome or all of the data samples based on other related data samples. Forexample, if a particular data sample for a vehicle or other mobile datasource lacks information of interest (such as speed and/or heading ororientation for the mobile data source), such information may bedetermined in conjunction with one or both of the prior and subsequentdata samples for the same mobile data source. In addition, in at leastsome embodiments information from multiple data samples for a particularmobile data source may be aggregated in order to assess additional typesof information regarding the data source, such as to assess an activityof the data source over a period of time that spans multiple datasamples (e.g., to determine if a vehicle has been parked for severalminutes rather than temporarily stopped for a minute or two as part ofthe normal flow of traffic, such as at a stop sign or stop light).

After step 410, the routine continues to step 415 to attempt toassociate each data sample with a road in the geographic area and aparticular road segment of that road, although in other embodiments thisstep may not be performed or may be performed in other manners, such asif at least an initial association of a data sample to a road and/orroad segment is instead received in step 405, or instead if the entireroutine is performed at a single time for a single road segment suchthat all of the data samples received in step 405 as a group correspondto a single road segment. In the illustrated embodiment, the associationof a data sample to a road and road segment may be performed in variousways, such as to make an initial association based solely on ageographic location associated with the data sample (e.g., to associatethe data sample with the nearest road and road segment). Furthermore,the association may optionally include additional analysis to refine orrevise that initial association—for example, if a location-basedanalysis indicates multiple possible road segments for a data sample(such as multiple road segments for a particular road, or insteadmultiple road segments for nearby but otherwise unrelated roads), suchadditional analysis may use other information such as speed andorientation to affect the association (e.g., by combining locationinformation and one or more other such factors in a weighted manner).Thus, for example, if the reported location of a data sample is betweena freeway and a nearby frontage road, information about the reportedspeed of the data sample may be used to assist in associating the datasample with the appropriate road (e.g., by determining that a datasample with an associated speed of 70 miles per hour is unlikely tooriginate from a frontage road with a speed limit of 25 miles per hour).In addition, in situations in which a particular stretch of road orother road portion is associated with multiple distinct road segments(e.g., for a two-lane road in which travel in one direction is modeledas a first road segment and in which travel in the other direction ismodeled as a distinct second road segment, or instead a multi-lanefreeway in which an HOV lane is modeled as a separate road segment fromone or more adjacent non-HOV lanes), additional information about thedata sample such as speed and/or orientation may be used to select themost likely road segment of the road for the data sample.

After step 415, the routine continues to step 420 to filter any datasamples that are not associated with road segments that are of interestfor later processing, including data samples (if any) that are notassociated with any road segment. For example, certain roads or portionsof roads may not be of interest for later analysis, such as to excluderoads of certain functional road classes (e.g., if the size of the roadand/or its amount of traffic is not sufficiently large to be ofinterest), or to exclude portions of roads such as a freeway ramp orfeeder road or collector/distributor road since the trafficcharacteristics of such road portions are not reflective of the freewayas a whole. Similarly, in situations in which multiple road segments areassociated with a particular portion of road, some road segments may notbe of interest for some purposes, such as to exclude an HOV lane for afreeway if only the behavior of the non-HOV lanes are of interest for aparticular purpose, or if only one direction of a two-way road is ofinterest. After step 420, the routine continues to step 425 to determinewhether to filter data samples based on activity of the data sources,although in other embodiments such filtering may not be performed or mayalways be performed. In the illustrated embodiment, if the filtering isto be performed based on the source activity, the routine continues tostep 430 to perform such filtering, such as to remove data samplescorresponding to data sources whose behavior does not reflect thetraffic flow activity of interest to be measured (e.g., to excludevehicles that are parked with their engines running for an extendedperiod of time, to exclude vehicles that are driving around in a parkinglot or parking garage or other small area for an extended period oftime, etc.). After step 430, or if it was instead determined in step 425to not filter based on data source activity, the routine continues tostep 490 to store the filtered data for later use, although in otherembodiments the filtered data could instead be provided directly to oneor more clients. The routine then continues to step 495 to determinewhether to continue. If so, the routine returns to step 405, and if notcontinues to step 499 and ends.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data SampleOutlier Eliminator routine 500. The routine may be provided by, forexample, execution of an embodiment of a Data Sample Outlier Eliminatorcomponent 354 of FIG. 3 and/or Data Sample Outlier Eliminator component106 of FIG. 1, such as to eliminate data samples for a road segment thatare outliers with respect to the other data samples for the roadsegment.

The routine begins in step 505, where a set of data samples for a roadsegment and a time period are received. The received data samples maybe, for example, filtered data samples obtained from the output of theData Sample Filterer routine. In step 510, the routine then optionallyseparates the data samples into multiple groups to reflect distinctparts of the road segment and/or distinct behaviors. For example, ifmultiple freeway lanes are included together as part of a single roadsegment and the multiple lanes include at least one HOV lane and one ormore non-HOV lanes, the vehicles in the HOV lane(s) may be separatedfrom vehicles in the other lanes if the traffic flow during the timeperiod is significantly different between the HOV and non-HOV lanes.Such grouping may be performed in various ways, such as by fitting thedata samples to multiple curves that each represent typical data samplevariability within a particular group of data samples (e.g., a normal orGaussian curve). In other embodiments, such grouping may not beperformed, such as if the road segment is instead divided such that allof the data samples for the road segment reflect similar behavior (e.g.,if a freeway with an HOV lane and other non-HOV lanes is instead splitinto multiple road segments).

The routine next continues to step 515 to, for each of the one or moregroups of data samples (with all of the data samples being treated as asingle group if the data sample separating of step 510 is notperformed), calculate average traffic condition characteristics for allof the data samples. Such average traffic condition characteristics mayinclude, for example, an average speed, as well as correspondingstatistical information such as a standard deviation from the mean. Theroutine then continues to step 520 to, for each of the one or more datasample groups, successively perform a leave-one-out analysis such that aparticular target data sample is selected to be provisionally left outand average traffic condition characteristics are determined for theremaining traffic condition characteristics. The larger the differencebetween the average traffic condition characteristics for the remainingdata samples and the average traffic condition characteristics for alldata samples from step 515, the greater the likelihood that the left-outtarget data sample is an outlier that does not reflect commoncharacteristics of the other remaining data samples. In step 525, theroutine then optionally performs one or more additional types of outlieranalysis, such as to successively leave out groups of two or more targetdata samples in order to assess their joint effect, although in someembodiments such additional outlier analysis may not be performed. Afterstep 522, the routine continues to step 590 to remove data samples thatare identified as outliers in steps 520 and/or 525, and stores theremaining data samples for later use. In other embodiments, the routinemay instead forward the remaining data samples to one or more clientsfor use. The routine then continues to step 595 to determine whether tocontinue. If so, the routine returns to step 505, and if not the routinecontinues to step 599 and ends.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data Sample SpeedAssessor routine 600. The routine may be provided by, for example,execution of the Data Sample Speed Assessor component 356 of FIG. 3and/or the Data Sample Speed Assessor component 107 of FIG. 1, such asto assess a current average speed for a road segment during a period oftime based on various data samples for the road segment. In this exampleembodiment, the routine will perform successive calculations of averagespeed for the road segment for each of multiple time intervals orwindows during the period of time, although in other embodiments eachinvocation of the routine may instead be for a single time interval(e.g., with multiple time intervals assessed via multiple invocations ofthe routine). For example, if the time period is thirty minutes, a newaverage speed calculation may be performed every five minutes, such aswith 5-minute time intervals (and thus with each time interval notoverlapping with prior or successive time intervals), or with 10-minutetime intervals (and thus overlapping with adjacent time intervals).

The routine begins at step 605, where an indication is received of datasamples (e.g., data samples from mobile data sources and physical sensordata readings) for a road segment for a period of time, or ofinsufficient data for a road segment for a period of time, although insome embodiments only one of data samples from mobile data sources andfrom sensor data readings may be received. The received data samples maybe, for example, obtained from the output of the Data Sample OutlierEliminator routine. Similarly, the indication of insufficient data maybe received from the Data Sample Outlier Eliminator routine. In somecases, the indication of insufficient data may be based on having aninsufficient number of data samples, such as when there have been nodata samples from mobile data sources associated with the road segmentfor the period of time and/or when some or all sensor data readings forthe road segment are missing or have been detected to be erroneous(e.g., by the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 of FIG. 1). In thisexample, the routine continues in step 610 to determine whether anindication of insufficient data has been received. If so, the routinecontinues to step 615, and if not, the routine continues to step 625.

In step 615, the routine executes an embodiment of the Traffic FlowEstimator routine (described with reference to FIG. 14) in order toobtain estimated average traffic speed for the road segment for theperiod of time. In step 620, the routine then provides an indication ofthe estimated average speed. In step 625, the routine selects the nexttime interval or window for which an average speed is to be assessed,beginning with the first time interval. In step 630, the routine thencalculates a weighted average traffic speed for the data samples withinthe time interval, with the weighting of the data samples being based onone or more factors. For example, in the illustrated embodiment, theweighting for each data sample is varied (e.g., in a linear,exponential, or step-wise manner) based on the latency of the datasample, such as to give greater weight to data samples near the end ofthe time interval (as they may be more reflective of the actual averagespeed at the end of the time interval). In addition, the data samplesmay further be weighted in the illustrated embodiment based on thesource of the data, such as to weight data readings from physicalsensors differently from data samples from vehicles and other mobiledata sources, whether more or less heavily. In addition, in otherembodiments, various other factors could be used in the weighting,including on a per-sample basis—for example, a data reading from onephysical sensor may be weighted differently than a data reading fromanother physical sensor, such as to reflect available information aboutthe sensors (e.g., that one of the physical sensors is intermittentlyfaulty or has a less accurate data reading resolution than anothersensor), and a data sample from one vehicle or other mobile data sourcemay similarly be weighted differently from that of another such vehicleor mobile data source based on information about the mobile datasources. Other types of factors that in some embodiments may be used inthe weightings include confidence values or other estimates of thepossible error in a particular data sample, a degree of confidence thata particular data sample should be associated with a particular roadsegment, etc.

After step 630, the routine continues to step 635 to provide anindication of the average calculated traffic speed for the timeinterval, such as to store the information for later use and/or toprovide the information to a client. In step 640, the routine thenoptionally obtains additional data samples for the time period that havebecome available subsequent to the receipt of information in step 605.It is then determined in step 645 whether more time intervals are to becalculated for the time period, and if so the routine returns to step625. If there are instead no more time intervals, or after step 620, theroutine continues to step 695 to determine whether to continue. If so,the routine returns to step 605, and if not continues to step 699 andends.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Data Sample FlowAssessor routine 700. The routine may be provided by, for example,execution of an embodiment of a Data Sample Flow Assessor component 358of FIG. 3 and/or Data Sample Flow Assessor component 108 of FIG. 1, suchas to assess traffic condition flow characteristics other than averagespeed for a particular road segment during a particular period of time.In this example embodiment, the flow characteristics to be assessedinclude a total volume of vehicles (or other mobile data sources)arriving at or present on a particular road segment during a period oftime, and a percentage occupancy for the road segment during the periodof time to reflect the percentage of time that a point on or area of theroad segment is covered by a vehicle.

The routine begins at step 705, where an indication is received of datasamples for a road segment for a period of time and an average speed forthe road segment during the period of time, or of insufficient data fora road segment for a period of time. The data samples may be obtainedfrom, for example, output of the Data Sample Outlier Eliminator routine,and the average speed may be obtained from, for example, output of theData Sample Speed Assessor routine. The indication of insufficient datamay be obtained from, for example, output of the Data Sample OutlierEliminator routine. In some cases, the indication of insufficient datamay be based on having an insufficient number of data samples, such aswhen there have been no data samples from mobile data sources associatedwith the road segment for the period of time and/or when some or allsensor data readings for the road segment are missing or have beendetected to be erroneous (e.g., by the Sensor Data Conditioner component105 of FIG. 1). The routine then continues in step 706 to determinewhether an indication of insufficient data has been received. If so, theroutine continues to step 750, and if not, the routine continues to step710.

In step 750, the routine executes an embodiment of the Traffic FlowEstimator routine (described with reference to FIG. 14) in order toobtain estimated total volume and occupancy for the road segment for theperiod of time. In step 755, the routine then provides an indication ofthe estimated total volume and occupancy.

In step 710, the routine determines a number of vehicles (or othermobile data sources) that provided the data samples, such as byassociating each data sample with a particular mobile data source. Instep 720, the routine then probabilistically determines the most likelyarrival rate to the road segment of the vehicles providing the datasamples, based in part on the determined number of vehicles. In someembodiments, the probabilistic determination may further use informationabout the a priori probability of the number of such vehicles and the apriori probability of a particular arrival rate. In step 730, theroutine then infers the total volume of all vehicles passing through theroad segment during the period of time, such as based on the determinednumber of vehicles and information about what percentage of the totalnumber of vehicles are vehicles that provide data samples, and furtherassesses a confidence interval for the inferred total volume. In step740, the routine then infers the percentage occupancy for the roadsegment during the period of time based on the inferred total volume,the average speed, and an average vehicle length. Other types of trafficflow characteristics of interest may similarly be assessed in otherembodiments. In the illustrated embodiment, the routine then continuesto step 790 to provide indications of the inferred total volume and theinferred percentage occupancy. After steps 755 or 790, if it is thendetermined in step 795 to continue, the routine returns to step 705, andif not continues to step 799 and ends.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Error Detector routine 1100. The routine may be provided by, forexample, execution of the Sensor Data Conditioner component 353 of FIG.3 and/or the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 of FIG. 1, such as todetermine the health of one or more traffic sensors. In this exampleembodiment, the routine is performed at various times of day todetermine the health of one or more traffic sensors, based on trafficsensor data readings recently obtained during an indicated time period.In addition, data being output by a traffic sensor for one or more ofvarious types of traffic conditions measures may be analyzed by theroutine in various embodiments, such as traffic speed, volume,occupancy, etc. Furthermore, data for at least some of trafficconditions may be measured and/or aggregated in various ways, such as atvarious levels of granularity (e.g., 5 mph buckets of groups of data forspeed information), and the routine may in some embodiments analyze datafor a particular traffic sensor at each of one or more levels ofgranularity (or other level of aggregation) for each of one or moretraffic conditions measures.

The routine begins at step 1105 and receives an indication of one ormore traffic sensors and of a selected time category (e.g., the mostrecent time category, if the routine executes after each time categoryto provide results in a near-realtime manner, or one or more prior timecategories selected for analysis), although in other embodimentsmultiple time categories may instead be indicated. In some embodiments,time may be modeled by way of time categories that each include atime-of-day category (e.g., 12:00 AM to 5:29 AM and 7:30 PM to 11:59 PM,5:30 AM to 8:59 AM, 9:00 AM to 12:29 PM, 12:30 PM to 3:59 PM, 4:00 PM to7:29 PM, and 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM) and/or a day-of-week category (e.g.,Monday through Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, or instead withSaturday and Sunday grouped together). Particular time categories may beselected in various ways in various embodiments, including to reflecttime periods during which traffic is expected to have similarcharacteristics (e.g., based on commuting times and patterns, or otherconsistent activities that affect traffic), such as to group evening andearly morning hours together if traffic is typically relatively sparseduring those times. In addition, in some embodiments time categories maybe selected to differ for different traffic sensors (e.g., by geographicarea, road, individual sensor, etc.), whether manually or in anautomated manner by analyzing historical data to determine time periodsthat have similar traffic flow characteristics.

In steps 1110 to 1150, the routine then performs a loop in which itanalyzes traffic sensor data readings from each of the indicated one ormore traffic sensors for the indicated time categories in order todetermine the traffic sensor health status of each of the trafficsensors during that time category. In step 1110, the routine selects thenext traffic sensor of the indicated one or more traffic sensors,beginning with the first, and selects the indicated time category (or,if multiple time categories were instead indicated in step 1105, thenext combination of traffic sensor and indicated time category). In step1115, the routine retrieves an average historical data readingdistribution for the traffic sensor during the selected time category.In some embodiments, the historical data reading distribution may bebased on data readings provided by the traffic sensor during theselected time category (e.g., between 4:00 PM and 7:29 PM on days of theweek that include Monday through Thursday) over an extended time period,such as the last 120 days or a recent 120 day period).

In step 1120, the routine determines a target traffic sensor datadistribution for the selected traffic sensor and selected time category.In step 1125, the routine then determines the similarity of the targettraffic sensor data reading distribution and the historical trafficsensor data reading distribution. As described in more detail elsewhere,in some embodiments, such a similarity measure may be determined bycalculating the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the target trafficsensor data reading distribution and the historical traffic sensor datareading distribution. In step 1130, the routine next determines theinformation entropy of the target traffic sensor data readingdistribution, as discussed in greater detail elsewhere.

In step 1135, the routine next assesses the health of the selectedtraffic sensor for the selected time category by using variousinformation to perform a health classification (e.g., an indication of“healthy” or “unhealthy”, or a value on a “health” scale such as from 1to 100), which in this example includes the determined similarity,determined entropy, and the selected time category (e.g., the selectedtime-of-day category, such as 4:00 PM to 7:29 PM, and/or the selectedday-of-week category, such as Monday to Thursday). In other embodiments,other types of information could be used, such as an indication of adegree of granularity of the data being measured (e.g., 5 mph buckets ofgroups of data for speed information). In one embodiment, a neuralnetwork may be used for the classification, while in other embodimentsvarious other classification techniques may be utilized, includingdecision trees, Bayesian classifiers, etc.

In step 1140, the routine then determines the traffic sensor healthstatus for the selected traffic sensor and selected time category (inthis example as healthy or unhealthy) based on the assessed trafficsensor health and/or other factors. In some embodiments, the healthstatus for a traffic sensor may be determined to be healthy whenever thetraffic sensor health for the selected time category is assessed ashealthy in step 1135. In addition, the health status for the trafficsensor may be determined to be unhealthy whenever the traffic sensorhealth for the selected time category is assessed as unhealthy (e.g., instep 1135), and the selected time category has an associated time-of-daycategory that covers a sufficiently large time period (e.g., at least 12or 24 hours). Furthermore, in some embodiments information about relatedtime categories (e.g., for one or more prior and/or subsequent timeperiods) may be retrieved and used, such as to classify traffic sensorhealth over a longer period of time (e.g., a day). Such logic may reducethe risk of a false negative determination of sensor health status(e.g., determining the traffic sensor health status as unhealthy when infact the traffic sensor is healthy) based on temporary unusual trafficpatterns that the traffic sensor is accurately reporting.

For example, false negative determinations may occur due to substantialintra-day variability in data readings due to external factors (e.g.,traffic accidents, weather incidents, etc.). An automobile accidentoccurring at or near a particular traffic sensor, for example, mayresult in that traffic sensor providing atypical and erratic datareadings for a relatively short time period (e.g., one to two hours). Ifa determination of sensor health status is solely based on data readingsobtained primarily during the time of the disturbance caused by thetraffic accident, a false negative determination will likely result. Bybasing the determination of unhealthy sensor status on data readingsobtained over relatively larger time periods (e.g., 12 or 24 hours) therisk of such false negative determinations may be reduced. On the otherhand, false positive determinations (e.g., determining the trafficsensor health as healthy when in fact it is unhealthy) may in general beless likely, because malfunctioning traffic sensors are unlikely toprovide data readings that are similar to historical data readings(e.g., reflective of ordinary traffic patterns). As such, it may beappropriate to determine a traffic sensor health status as healthy basedon relatively smaller time periods.

Some embodiments may effect such differential logic by executing theillustrated routine multiple times per day with time categoriesreflective of shorter time periods (e.g., executing the routine everythree hours with a time category having a time-of-day category extendingover the previous three hours) and at least once per day with a timecategory reflective of the entire previous day (e.g., executing theroutine at midnight with a time category having a time-of-day categoryextending over the previous 24 hours).

In addition, the determination of sensor health status may be based onother factors, such as whether a sufficient number of data readings canbe obtained for the selected time category (e.g., because the trafficsensor is intermittently reporting data readings) and/or based onindications of sensor state provided by the traffic sensor (e.g., thatthe traffic sensor is stuck).

In step 1145, the routine provides the determined traffic sensor healthstatus. In some embodiments, the traffic sensor health status may bestored (e.g., in a database or file system) for later use by othercomponents (e.g., the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 of FIG. 1)and/or directly provided to other components (e.g., a Data SampleOutlier Eliminator component). In step 1150, the routine determineswhether there are more traffic sensors (or combinations of trafficsensors and time categories) to process. If so, the routine continues tostep 1110 to continue, and if not continues to step 1155 to performother actions as appropriate. Such other actions may include, forexample, periodically (e.g., once per day, once per week, etc.)recalculating historical data reading distributions (e.g., for the last120 days) for each of one or more time categories for each of multipletraffic sensors. By periodically recalculating historical data readingdistributions, the routine may continue to provide accurate trafficsensor health status determinations in the face of gradually changingtraffic conditions (e.g., due to the initiation or completion of roadconstruction projects). After step 1155, the routine continues to step1199 and returns.

FIG. 12 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Error Corrector routine 1200. The routine may be provided by,for example, execution of the Sensor Data Conditioner component 353 ofFIG. 3 and/or the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 of FIG. 1, suchas to determine corrected data readings for one or more traffic sensorsassociated with a road segment. In the illustrated example embodiment,this routine may be executed periodically (e.g., every 5 minutes) tocorrect data readings for traffic sensors that have been identified asunhealthy by the Sensor Data Reading Error Corrector routine. In otherembodiments, the routine may be executed on demand, such as by theSensor Data Aggregator routine, in order to obtain corrected datareadings for a particular road segment, or instead may not be used invarious circumstances. For example, data analysis and correction may beperformed more generally by determining if all data samples (e.g., frommultiple data sources, such as of multiple types that may includetraffic sensors and one or more distinct types of mobile data sources)for a particular road segment provide sufficient data to analyze trafficflow conditions for that road segment, and if so to not performcorrection of data from individual traffic sensors.

The routine begins at step 1205, where it receives an indication of aroad segment with which one or more traffic sensors are associated(e.g., based on results from the Sensor Data Reading Error Detectorroutine that one or more of the associated traffic sensors have beenclassified as unhealthy), and optionally of one or more time categoriesto be processed (e.g., time categories during which at least one of theassociated traffic sensors have been classified as at least potentiallybeing unhealthy). In other embodiments, one or more traffic sensors ofinterest may be indicated in other manners, such as by directlyreceiving indications of one or more traffic sensors. In steps 1210 to1235, the routine performs a loop in which it processes unhealthytraffic sensors in the indicated road segment to determine and providecorrected data readings for those traffic sensors during one or moretime categories (e.g., the time categories indicated in step 1205).

In step 1210, the routine selects the next unhealthy traffic sensor inthe indicated road segment, beginning with the first. The routine alsoselects a time category to use, such as one of one or more timecategories indicated in step 1205, by selecting one of one or more timecategories during which the traffic sensor was previously designated tobe unhealthy, etc. In step 1215, the routine determines whether thereare sufficient other traffic sensors in the indicated road segment thatare healthy and may be used to assist in the correction of the readingsfor the unhealthy traffic sensor for the selected time category. Thisdetermination may be based on whether there are at least a predeterminednumber (e.g., at least two) and/or a predetermined percentage (e.g., atleast 30%) of healthy traffic sensors in the indicated road segmentduring the selected time category, and may further consider the relativelocation of the healthy traffic sensors in the indicated road segment(e.g., neighboring or otherwise nearby traffic sensors may be preferredto traffic sensors that are farther away from the unhealthy trafficsensor). If it is determined in step 1215 that there are sufficienthealthy traffic sensors, the routine continues to step 1220, where itdetermines a corrected data reading for the unhealthy traffic sensorbased on data readings from other healthy traffic sensors in the roadsegment for the selected time category. A corrected data reading may bedetermined in various ways, such as by calculating the average of two ormore data readings obtained from healthy traffic sensors in theindicated road segment for the selected time category. In someembodiments, all healthy traffic sensors may be used for the averaging,while in other embodiments only selected healthy traffic sensors may beused. For example, if a predetermined percentage (e.g., at least 30%) oftraffic sensors in the indicated road segment are healthy during theselected time category, all healthy traffic sensors may be used for theaveraging, and otherwise only a predetermined number (e.g., at leasttwo) of the nearest healthy traffic sensors may be used.

If it is instead determined in step 1215 that there are not sufficienthealthy traffic sensors in the indicated road segment for the selectedtime category, the routine continues to step 1225, where it attempts todetermine a corrected data reading for the unhealthy traffic sensorbased on other information related to the traffic sensor and/or the roadsegment. For example, such information may include predicted trafficcondition information for the road segment and/or unhealthy trafficsensor, forecast traffic condition information for the road segmentand/or unhealthy traffic sensor, and/or historical average trafficcondition information for the road segment and/or the unhealthy trafficsensor. Various logic may be implemented to reflect the relativereliability of various types of information. For example, in someembodiments, predicted traffic condition information may be used inpreference to (e.g., so long as it is available) to forecast trafficcondition information, which may in turn be used in preference tohistorical average traffic condition information. Additional detailsrelated to predicting and forecasting future traffic flow conditions andusing the resulting information are discussed elsewhere, including withrespect to FIGS. 15A-21J. In other embodiments, steps 1215 and 1225 maynot be performed, such as if the data reading correction in step 1220 isalways performed based on the best data that is available from otherhealthy traffic sensors during the selected time category and/or relatedtime categories. For example, the data reading correction may be basedon all healthy traffic sensors in the indicated road segment for theselected time category if at least a predetermined percentage (e.g., atleast 30%) of those traffic sensors are healthy, or otherwise on thenearest neighbor healthy traffic sensors in the indicated and/or nearbyroad segments during the selected time category and/or related timecategories.

After steps 1220 or 1225, the routine proceeds to step 1230 and providesthe determined traffic sensor data reading for use as a correctedreading for the traffic sensor during the selected time category. Insome embodiments, the determined traffic sensor data reading may bestored (e.g., in a database or file system) for later use by othercomponents (e.g., the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 of FIG. 1).In step 1235, the routine determines whether there are additionalcombinations of traffic sensor and time category to process. If so, theroutine returns to step 1210, and if not proceeds to step 1299 andreturns.

FIG. 13 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Sensor DataReading Aggregator routine 1300. The routine may be provided by, forexample, execution of the Sensor Data Aggregator component 355 of FIG. 3and/or the Sensor Data Aggregator component 110 of FIG. 1, such as todetermine and provide traffic condition information for multiple trafficsensors during a particular time category or other time period, such asfor multiple traffic sensors associated with a particular road segment.In the illustrated example embodiment, the routine is performed forparticular road segments, but in other embodiments may aggregateinformation from other types of groups of multiple traffic sensors. Inaddition, this routine may provide traffic condition information that iscomplementary to information provided by other routines that performassessments of traffic condition information (e.g., the Data Sample FlowAssessor routine), such as to provide traffic condition information insituations in which other routines cannot provide accurate assessments(e.g., due to insufficient data).

The routine begins at step 1305 and receives an indication of one ormore road segments and of one or more time categories or other timeperiods. In step 1310, the routine selects the next road segment of theone or more indicated road segments, beginning with the first. In step1315, the routine obtains some or all available traffic sensor datareadings taken during the indicated time period(s) by all trafficsensors associated with the road segment. Such information may beobtained from, for example, the Sensor Data Conditioner component 105 ofFIG. 1 and/or the Sensor Data Conditioner component 353 of FIG. 1. Inparticular, the routine may in some cases obtain traffic sensor datareadings for traffic sensors determined to be healthy and/or correctedtraffic sensor data readings for traffic sensors determined to beunhealthy, such as those provided or determined by the Sensor DataReading Error Corrector routine of FIG. 12.

In step 1320, the routine then aggregates the obtained data readings inone or more of various ways, such as to determine average speed, volume,and/or occupancy for the road segment during the indicated timeperiod(s). The average speed may, for example, be determined byaveraging data readings that reflect the speed of vehicles passing overone or more traffic sensors. The traffic volume may be determined withreference to data readings that report vehicle counts. For example,given a loop sensor that reports a cumulative number of vehicles thathave passed over the sensor since the sensor was activated, a trafficvolume may be inferred simply by subtracting two data readings obtainedduring the indicated time period and dividing the result by the timeinterval between the data readings. In addition, the density may bedetermined based on the determined average speed, volume, and an averagevehicle length, as described in more detail elsewhere. In some cases,data readings may be weighted in various ways (e.g., by age), such thatmore recent data readings have a greater impact than older data readingson an average flow determination.

In step 1325, the routine then determines whether there are more roadsegments (or other groups of multiple traffic sensors) to process. Ifso, the routine returns to step 1310, and otherwise proceeds to step1330 to provide the determined traffic flow information. In someembodiments, the determined flow information may be stored (e.g., in adatabase or file system) for later provision to traffic data clients 109of FIG. 1 and/or the RT Information Provider system 363 of FIG. 3. Next,the routine continues to step 1339 and returns.

FIG. 14 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Traffic FlowEstimator routine 1400. The routine may be provided by, for example,execution of a Traffic Flow Estimator component (not shown), such as toestimate various types of traffic flow information for a road segment invarious ways. In this example embodiment, the routine may be invoked bythe Data Sample Speed Assessor routine of FIG. 6 to obtain estimates ofaverage speed and/or by the Data Sample Flow Assessor routine of FIG. 7to obtain estimates of volume and/or occupancy, such as in situationswhen those routines are unable to obtain sufficient data for otherwiseaccurately performing their respective assessments.

The routine begins at step 1405 and receives an indication of a roadsegment, one or more time categories or other time periods, and of oneor more types of traffic flow information, such as speed, volume,density, occupancy, etc. In step 1410, the routine determines whether toestimate the indicated type of traffic flow information based on one ormore related road segments, such as based on whether such road segmentshave accurate information for the one or more types of traffic flowinformation during the one or more indicated time periods. Related roadsegments may be identified in various ways. For example, in some cases,information about road segments may include information aboutrelationships between road segments, such as a first road segmenttypically having similar traffic patterns to a second (e.g.,neighboring) road segment, such that traffic flow information for thesecond road segment may be utilized to estimate traffic flow on thefirst road segment. In some cases, such relationships may be determinedautomatically, such as based on a statistical analysis of the respecttraffic flow patterns on the two road segments (e.g., in a mannersimilar to that discussed previously with respect to identifying similardata distributions for a given traffic sensor at different times, butinstead analyzing similarity between two or more different trafficsensors, such as at the same time), whether an analysis that waspreviously and/or dynamically performed. Alternatively, one or moreneighboring road segments may be selected as being related for anindicated road segment without any determination of a particularrelationship between road segments having been performed. If it isdetermined to estimate traffic flow information based on related roadsegments, the routine proceeds to step 1415 and estimates value(s) forthe indicated type(s) of traffic flow information based on the sametype(s) of traffic flow information for the one or more related roadsegments. For example, average speed of the road segment may bedetermined based on the average traffic speed of one or more neighboringroad segments (e.g., by using the traffic speed from one neighboringroad segment, or averaging the traffic speeds from two or moreneighboring road segments).

If it is instead determined in step 1410 not to estimate traffic flowinformation for the indicated road segment based on related roadsegments, the routine continues to step 1420 and determines whether toestimate traffic flow information for the indicated road segment duringthe one or more indicated time periods based on predicted informationfor the indicated road segment and indicated time periods. In someembodiments, such predicted information may only be available undercertain conditions, such as if predictions are repeatedly made formultiple future times (e.g. every 15 minutes for the next three hours)while accurate current data is available. As such, if accurate inputdata for generating predictions becomes available for an extended time(e.g., for more than three hours), it may not be possible to obtainfuture traffic condition information predictions that may be utilized bythis routine. Alternatively, in some embodiments such predicted futuretraffic condition information may not be available for other reasons,such as due to not being used in that embodiment. If it is determined instep 1420 to estimate traffic flow information based on predictedinformation, the routine proceeds to step 1425 and estimates theindicated type(s) of traffic flow information for the indicated roadsegment and indicated time period(s) based on predicted informationobtained from, for example, the Predictive Traffic Information Providersystem 360 of FIG. 3. Additional details related to predicting andforecasting future traffic flow conditions are discussed elsewhere.

If it is instead determined in step 1420 not to estimate traffic flowinformation for the indicated segment based on predicted information(e.g., due to that information not being available), the routinecontinues to step 1430 and determines whether to estimate traffic flowinformation for the indicated road segment during the one or moreindicated time periods based on forecast information for that roadsegment and time period(s). In some embodiments, traffic conditions maybe forecast for future times beyond those for which traffic conditionsare predicted, such as in a manner that does not use at least somecurrent condition information. As such, if predicted information is notavailable (e.g., because accurate input data for generating predictionshas not been available for more than three hours), it still may bepossible to utilize forecast information, such as information generatedsignificantly in advance. If it is determined in step 1430 to estimatetraffic flow information based on forecast information, the routineproceeds to step 1435 and estimates the indicated type(s) of trafficflow information for the indicated road segment and time period(s) basedon forecast information obtained from, for example, the PredictiveTraffic Information Provider system 360.

If it is instead determined in step 1430 not to estimate traffic flowinformation for the indicated road segment based on forecast information(e.g., due to the information not being available), the routinecontinues to step 1440 and estimates the indicated type(s) of trafficflow information for the indicated road segments and time period(s)based on historical average flow information for the indicated roadsegment (e.g., for the same or corresponding time periods, such as basedon time categories that include a time-of-day category and/orday-of-week category). For example, if forecast information isunavailable (e.g., because input data has been unavailable for longerthan the period for which the most recent prediction and forecast wasgenerated, such that neither new predictions nor new forecasts can begenerated), the routine may use historical average flow information forthe indicated road segment. Additional details related to generatinghistorical average flow information are available in U.S. PatentApplication No. 60/838,761, filed Aug. 18, 2006 and entitled “GeneratingRepresentative Road Traffic Flow Information From Historical Data,”which is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.

After steps 1415, 1425, 1435, or 1440, the routine proceeds to step 1445and provides estimated traffic flow information of the indicated type(s)for the indicated road segment and indicated time period(s). Theprovided information may, for example, be returned to a routine (e.g.,the Data Sample Flow Assessor routine) that called the routine and/or bestored (e.g., in a database or file system) for later utilization. Afterstep 1445, the routine continues to step 1499 and returns.

FIGS. 9A-9C illustrate examples of actions of mobile data sources inobtaining and providing information about road traffic conditions.Information about road traffic conditions may be obtained from mobiledevices (whether vehicle-based devices and/or user devices) in variousways, such as by being transmitted using a wireless link (e.g.,satellite uplink, cellular network, WI-FI, packet radio, etc.) and/orphysically downloaded when the device reaches an appropriate docking orother connection point (e.g., to download information from a fleetvehicle once it has returned to its primary base of operations or otherdestination with appropriate equipment to perform the informationdownload). While information about road traffic conditions at a firsttime that is obtained at a significantly later second time providesvarious benefits (e.g., verifying predictions about the first time, foruse as observed case data in later improving a prediction process,etc.), such as may be the case for information that is, physicallydownloaded from a device, such road traffic condition informationprovides additional benefits when obtained in a realtime ornear-realtime manner. Accordingly, in at least some embodiments mobiledevices with wireless communication capabilities may provide at leastsome acquired information about road traffic conditions on a frequentbasis, such as periodically (e.g., every 30 seconds, 1 minute, 5minutes, etc.) and/or when a sufficient amount of acquired informationis available (e.g., for every acquisition of a data point related toroad traffic condition information; for every N acquisitions of suchdata, such as where N is a configurable number; when the acquired datareaches a certain storage and/or transmission size; etc.). In someembodiments, such frequent wireless communications of acquired roadtraffic condition information may further be supplemented by additionalacquired road traffic condition information at other times (e.g., upon asubsequent physical download from a device, via less-frequent wirelesscommunications that contain a larger amount of data, etc.), such as toinclude additional data corresponding to each data point, to includeaggregated information about multiple data points, etc.

While various benefits are provided by obtaining acquired road trafficcondition information from mobile devices in a realtime or otherfrequent manner, in some embodiments such wireless communications ofacquired road traffic condition information may be restricted in variousways. For example, in some cases the cost structure of transmitting datafrom a mobile device via a particular wireless link (e.g., satelliteuplink) may be such that transmissions occur at less-frequent intervals(e.g., every 15 minutes), or the mobile devices may have beenpre-programmed to transmit at such intervals. In other cases, a mobiledevice may temporarily lose an ability to transmit data over a wirelesslink, such as due to a lack of wireless coverage in an area of themobile device (e.g., due to no nearby cellphone receiver station), dueto other activities being performed by the mobile device or a user ofthe device, or due to a temporary problem with the mobile device or anassociated transmitter.

Accordingly, in some embodiments at least some such mobile devices maybe designed or otherwise configured to store multiple data samples (orto cause such multiple data samples to be stored on another associateddevice) so that at least some information for the multiple data samplesmay be transmitted together during a single wireless transmission. Forexample, in some embodiments at least some mobile devices are configuredto store acquired road traffic condition information data samples duringperiods when the mobile device is unable to transmit data over awireless link (e.g., such as for a mobile device that typicallytransmits each data sample individually, such as every 30 seconds or 1minute), and to then transmit those stored data samples together (or asubset and/or aggregation of those samples) during the next wirelesstransmission that occurs. Some mobile devices may also be configured toperform wireless transmissions periodically (e.g., every 15 minutes, orwhen a specified amount of data is available to be transmitted), and inat least some embodiments may further be configured to acquire and storemultiple data samples of road traffic condition information (e.g., at apre-determined sampling rate, such as 30 seconds or a minute) over thetime interval between wireless transmissions and to then similarlytransmit those stored data samples together (or a subset and/oraggregation of those samples) during the next wireless transmission. Asone example, if a wireless transmission of up to 1000 units ofinformation costs $0.25 and each data sample is 50 units in size, it maybe advantageous to sample every minute and send a data set comprising 20samples every 20 minutes (rather than sending each sample individuallyeach minute). In such embodiments, while data samples may be delayedslightly (in the example of the periodic transmissions, by on averagehalf of the time period between transmissions, assuming regularacquisitions of the data samples), the road traffic conditioninformation obtained from the transmissions still provides near-realtimeinformation. Moreover, in some embodiments additional information may begenerated and provided by a mobile device based on multiple stored datasamples. For example, if a particular mobile device is able to acquireonly information about a current instant position during each datasample, but is not able to acquire additional related information suchas speed and/or direction, such additional related information may becalculated or otherwise determined based on multiple subsequent datasamples.

In particular, FIG. 9A depicts an example area 955 with severalinterconnected roads 925, 930, 935 and 940, and a legend indication 950indicates the direction of North for the roads (with roads 925 and 935running in a north-south direction, and with roads 930 and 940 runningin an east-west direction). While only a limited number of roads areindicated, they may represent a large geographic area, such asinterconnected freeways over numerous miles, or a subset of city streetsspanning numerous blocks. In this example, a mobile data source (e.g., avehicle, not shown) has traveled from location 945 a to 945 c over aperiod of 30 minutes, and is configured to acquire and transmit a datasample indicating current traffic conditions each 15 minutes.Accordingly, as the mobile data source begins to travel, it acquires andtransmits a first data sample at location 945 a (as indicated in thisexample by an asterisk “*”), acquires and transmits a second data sample15 minutes later at location 945 b, and acquires and transmits a thirddata sample a total of 30 minutes later at location 945 c. In thisexample, each data sample includes an indication of current position(e.g., in GPS coordinates), current direction (e.g., northbound),current speed (e.g., 30 miles per hour), and current time, asrepresented for the 945 a transmission using data values P_(a), D_(a),S_(a) and T_(a), and may optionally include other information as well(e.g., an identifier to indicate the mobile data source). While suchacquired and provided current traffic conditions information providessome benefit, numerous details cannot be determined from such data,including whether the route from location 945 b to 945 c occurred inpart along road 930 or along 940. Moreover, such sample data does notallow, for example, portions of road 925 between locations 945 a and 945b to be treated as distinct road segments for which distinct trafficconditions can be reported and predicted.

In a manner similar to FIG. 9A, FIG. 9B depicts an example 905 with amobile data source traveling over the interconnected roads 925, 930, 935and 940 from location 945 a to 945 c over a period of 30 minutes, andwith the mobile data source transmitting information about trafficconditions each 15 minutes (as indicated by the asterisks shown atlocations 945 a, 945 b and 945 c). However, in this example the mobiledata source is configured to acquire and store data samples everyminute, with a subsequent transmission including data from each of thedata samples during the prior 15 minutes. Accordingly, as the mobiledata source travels between location 945 a and 945 b, the mobile datasource acquires a set 910 b of 15 data samples 910 b 1-910 b 15, witheach data sample indicated in this example with an arrow pointed in thedirection of the mobile data source at the time of the data sample. Inthis example, each data sample similarly includes an indication ofcurrent position, current direction, current speed, and current time,and the subsequent transmission at location 945 b includes those datavalues for each of the data samples 910 b. Similarly, as the mobile datasource travels between location 945 b and 945 c, the mobile data sourceacquires 15 data samples 910 c 1-910 c 15, and the subsequenttransmission at location 945 c includes the acquired data values foreach of those 15 data samples. By providing such additional datasamples, various additional information may be obtained. For example, itis now easily determined that the route from location 945 b to 945 coccurred in part along road 930 rather than road 940, allowingcorresponding traffic condition information to be attributed to road930. In addition, particular data samples and their adjacent datasamples may provide various information about smaller sections of roads,such as to allow road 925 between locations 945 a and 945 b to berepresented as, for example, up to 15 distinct road segments (e.g., byassociating each data sample with a distinct road segment) that each haspotentially distinct road traffic conditions. For example, it can bevisually observed that the average speed for data samples 910 b 1-910 b6 is approximately static (since the data samples are approximatelyequally spaced), that the average speed increased for data samples 910 b7 and 910 b 8 (since the data samples correspond to locations that arefarther apart, reflecting that greater distance was traveled during thegiven 1-minute interval between data samples for this example), and thatthe average speed decreased for data samples 910 b 11-910 b 15. Whilethe data samples in this example provide information about such speeddirectly, in other embodiments such speed information may be derivedfrom data sample information that includes only current position.

FIG. 9C depicts a third example 990 with a mobile data source travelingover a portion of the interconnected roads from location 965 a to 965 cover a period of 30 minutes, and with the mobile data sourcetransmitting information about traffic conditions each 15 minutes (asindicated by the asterisks shown at locations 965 a, 965 b and 965 c).As in FIG. 9C, the mobile data source is configured in this example toacquire and store data samples every minute, with a subsequenttransmission including data from each of at least some of the datasamples during the prior 15 minutes. Accordingly, as the mobile datasource travels between location 965 a and 965 b, the mobile data sourceacquires a set 960 b of 15 data samples 960 b 1-960 b 15. However, as isillustrated by co-located data samples 960 b 5-b 13 (with circles usedin this instance rather than arrows because no movement was detected forthese data samples, but shown separately rather than on top of eachother for the purposes of clarity), in this example the mobile datasource has stopped for approximately 9 minutes at a location to the sideof road 925 (e.g., to stop at a coffee shop). Accordingly, when the nexttransmission at location 965 b occurs, the transmission may in someembodiments include all of the information for all of the data samples,or may instead omit at least some such information (e.g., to omitinformation for data samples 960 b 6-960 b 12, since in this situationthey do not provide additional useful information if it is known thatthe mobile data source remained immobile between data samples 960 b 5and 960 b 13). Moreover, while not illustrated here, in otherembodiments in which the information for one or more such data samplesis omitted, the subsequent transmission may be delayed until 15 datasamples to be transmitted are available (e.g., if the periodictransmissions are performed based on amount of data to send rather thantime). Moreover, as the mobile data source travels between location 965b and 965 c, the mobile data source acquires data samples 960 c 13 and960 c 14 in an area in which wireless communications are not currentlyavailable (as indicated in this example with open circles rather thanarrows). In other embodiments in which each data sample is individuallytransmitted when acquired but is not otherwise saved, these data sampleswould be lost, but in this example are instead stored and transmittedalong with the other data samples 960 c 1-960 c 12 and 960 c 15 atlocation 965 c. While not shown here, in some situations a mobile datasource may further temporarily lose the ability to obtain one or moredata samples using a primary means of data acquisition (e.g., if amobile data source loses the ability to obtain GPS readings for a fewminutes)—if so, the mobile data source may in some embodiments reportthe other obtained data samples without further action (e.g., such as toallow the recipient to interpolate or otherwise estimate those datasamples if so desired), while in other embodiments may attempt to obtaindata samples in other manners (e.g., by using a less accurate mechanismto determine location, such as cellphone tower triangulation, or byestimating current location based on a prior known location andsubsequent average speed and heading, such as via dead reckoning), evenif those data samples have less precision or accuracy (e.g., which maybe reflected by including a lesser degree of confidence or higher degreeof possible error to those data samples, or by otherwise including anindication of how those and/or other data samples were generated).

While the example data samples in each of FIGS. 9B and 9C areillustrated for a single vehicle or other mobile data source for thepurposes of clarity, in other embodiments the multiple data samples fora particular mobile data source may not be used to determine aparticular route taken by that mobile data source, and more generallymay not even be associated with each other (e.g., if the source of eachmobile data sample is anonymous or otherwise undifferentiated from othersources). For example, if multiple data samples from a particular mobiledata source are not used by a recipient to generate aggregate datarelated to those data samples (e.g., to generate speed and/or directioninformation based on successive data samples that provide only locationinformation), such as when such aggregate data is included with eachdata sample or is not used, such a recipient may not be provided in someembodiments with identifying data related to the source of the mobiledata samples and/or with indications that the multiple data samples arefrom the same mobile data source (e.g., based on a design decision toincrease privacy related to the mobile data sources).

Instead, in at least some such embodiments, multiple mobile data sourcesare used together to determine road condition information of interest,such as to use multiple data samples from all mobile data sources for aparticular road segment (or other portion of a road) to determineaggregate information for that road segment. Thus, for example, during aperiod of time of interest (e.g., 1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes,etc.), numerous unrelated mobile data sources may each provide one ormore data samples related to their own travel on a particular roadsegment during that time period, and if each such data sample includesspeed and direction information (for example), an average aggregatespeed may be determined for that time period and that road segment forall mobile data sources that are generally moving in the same direction,such as in a manner similar to a road sensor that aggregates informationfor multiple vehicles passing the sensor. A particular data sample maybe associated with a particular road segment in various ways, such as byassociating the data sample location with the road (or road segment)having the nearest location (whether for any road, or only for roadsmeeting specified criteria, such as being of one or more indicatedfunctional road classes) and then selecting the appropriate road segmentfor that road, or by using an indication provided by a mobile datasource along with a data sample of an associated road (or road segment).In addition, in at least some embodiments roads other than 1-way roadswill be treated as distinct roads for the purposes of assigning datasamples to roads and for other purposes (e.g., to treat the northboundlanes of a freeway as being a distinct road from the southbound lanes ofthe freeway), and if so the direction for a mobile data sample mayfurther be used to determine the appropriate road with which the datasample is associated—in other embodiments, however, roads may be modeledin other manners, such as to treat a two-way city street as a singleroad (e.g., with average traffic conditions being reported and predictedfor vehicles moving in both directions), to treat each lane of amultiple lane freeway or other road as a distinct logical road, etc.

In some embodiments, to facilitate the use of multiple mobile datasources to determine road condition information of interest, fleetvehicles may be configured in various ways to provide data samples ofuse. For example, if a large fleet of vehicles will each leave the sameorigination point at a similar time each day, various of the fleetvehicles may be configured differently regarding how soon and how oftento begin providing data samples, such as to minimize a very large numberof data points all near the single origination point and/or to providevariability in when data samples will be acquired and transmitted. Moregenerally, a mobile data source device may be configured in various waysregarding how and when to acquire data samples, including based on totaldistance covered since a starting point (e.g., an origination point fora group of fleet vehicles), distance covered since a last data sampleacquisition and/or transmission, total time elapsed since a startingtime (e.g., a departure time of a fleet vehicle from an originationpoint), time elapsed since a last data sample acquisition and/ortransmission, an indicated relationship having occurred with respect toone or more indicated locations (e.g., passing by, arriving at,departing from, etc.), etc. Similarly, a mobile data source device maybe configured in various ways regarding how and when to transmit orotherwise provide one or more acquired data samples, such as whenpredefined conditions are satisfied, including based on total distancecovered since a starting point, distance covered since a last datasample acquisition and/or transmission, total time elapsed since astarting time, time elapsed since a last data sample acquisition and/ortransmission, an indicated relationship having occurred with respect toone or more indicated locations, an indicated number of data sampleshaving been gathered, an indicated amount of data having been gathered(e.g., an amount such as to fill or substantially fill a cache used tostore the data samples on the mobile device, or an amount such as tofill or substantially fill an indicated amount of time for atransmission), etc.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of an example embodiment of a Mobile DataSource Information Provision routine 800, such as may be provided by,for example, operation of a mobile data source device for each of one ormore of the vehicle-based data sources 384 of FIG. 3 and/or other datasources 388 (e.g., user devices) of FIG. 3 and/or vehicle-based datasources 101 of FIG. 1 and/or other data sources 102 of FIG. 1. In thisexample, the routine acquires data samples for a particular mobile datasource to indicate current traffic conditions, and stores the datasamples as appropriate such that a subsequent transmission may includeinformation for multiple data samples.

The routine begins at step 805, where parameters are retrieved that willbe used as part of the data sample acquisition and providing, such asconfigurable parameters to indicate when data samples should be acquiredand when transmissions should occur with information corresponding toone or more data samples. The routine continues to step 810 to waituntil it is time to acquire a data sample, such as based on theretrieved parameters and/or other information (e.g., an indicated amountof time having passed since a prior data sample acquisition, anindicated distance having been traveled since a prior data sampleacquisition, an indication to acquire data samples in a substantiallycontinuous manner, etc.). The routine then continues to step 815 toacquire a data sample based on the current location and movement of themobile data source, and stores the data sample in step 820. If it isdetermined in step 825 that it is not yet time to transmit data, such asbased on the retrieved parameters and/or other information (e.g., anindicated amount of time having passed since a prior transmission, anindicated distance having been traveled since a prior transmission, anindication to transmit data samples as soon as they become available orin a substantially continuous manner, etc.), the routine returns to step810.

Otherwise, the routine continues to step 830 to retrieve and select anystored data samples since the prior transmission (or since startup, forthe first transmission). The routine then optionally in step 835generates aggregated data based on multiple of the selected data samples(e.g., an overall average speed for all of the data samples, an averagespeed and a direction for each data sample if the acquired informationprovides only location information, etc.), although in other embodimentssuch aggregated data generation may not be performed. In step 840, theroutine then optionally removes some or all of the acquired informationfor some or all of the data samples from the selected set of datasamples (e.g., to transmit only selected types of data for each datasample, to remove data samples that appear to be outliers or otherwiseerroneous, to remove data samples that do not correspond to actualmovement of the mobile data source, etc.), although in other embodimentssuch information removal may not be performed. In step 845, the routinethen transmits the current information in the current set of datasamples and any aggregated information to a recipient that will use thedata in an appropriate manner. In step 895, the routine determineswhether to continue (e.g., whether the mobile data source continues tobe in use and mobile), and if so returns to step 810. Otherwise, theroutine continues to step 899 and ends. In embodiments and situations inwhich a mobile data source is not able to transmit data, whether due totemporary conditions or instead to reflect configuration of orlimitations of the mobile data source, the steps 830-845 may not beperformed until such time as the mobile data source is able to transmitor otherwise provide (e.g., via physical download) some or all of thedata samples that have been acquired and stored since a priortransmission.

As previously noted, once information about road traffic conditions hasbeen obtained, such as from one or more mobile data sources and/or oneor more other sources, the road traffic conditions information may beused in various ways, such as to report current road traffic conditionsin a substantially realtime manner, or to use past and current roadtraffic condition information to predict future traffic conditions ateach of multiple future times. In some embodiments, the types of inputdata used to generate predictions of future traffic conditions mayinclude a variety of current, past, and expected future conditions, andoutputs from the prediction process may include the generatedpredictions of the expected traffic conditions on each of multipletarget road segments of interest for each of multiple future times(e.g., every 5, 15 or 60 minutes in the future) within a pre-determinedtime interval (e.g., three hours, or one day), as discussed in greaterdetail elsewhere. For example, types of input data may include thefollowing: information about current and past amounts of traffic forvarious target road segments of interest in a geographic area, such asfor a network of selected roads in the geographic area; informationabout current and recent traffic accidents; information about current,recent and future road work; information about current, past andexpected future weather conditions (e.g., precipitation, temperature,wind direction, wind speed, etc.); information about at least somecurrent, past and future scheduled events (e.g., type of event, expectedstart and end times of the event, and/or a venue or other location ofthe event, etc., such as for all events, events of indicated types,events that are sufficiently large, such as to have expected attendanceabove an indicated threshold (for example, 1000 or 5000 expectedattendees), etc.); and information about school schedules (e.g., whetherschool is in session and/or the location of one or more schools). Inaddition, while in some embodiments the multiple future times at whichfuture traffic conditions are predicted are each points in time, inother embodiments such predictions may instead represent multiple timepoints (e.g., a period of time), such as by representing an average orother aggregate measure of the future traffic conditions during thosemultiple time points. Furthermore, some or all of the input data may beknown and represented with varying degrees of certainty (e.g., expectedweather), and additional information may be generated to representdegrees of confidence in and/or other metadata for the generatedpredictions. In addition, the prediction of future traffic conditionsmay be initiated for various reasons and at various times, such as in aperiodic manner (e.g., every five minutes), when any or sufficient newinput data is received, in response to a request from a user, etc.

Some of the same types of input data may be used to similarly generatelonger-term forecasts of future traffic conditions (e.g., one week inthe future, or one month in the future) in some embodiments, but suchlonger-term forecasts may not use some of the types of input data, suchas information about current conditions at the time of the forecastgeneration (e.g., current traffic, weather, or other conditions). Inaddition, such longer-term forecasts may be generated less frequentlythan shorter-term predictions, and may be made so as to reflectdifferent future time periods than for shorter-term predictions (e.g.,for every hour rather than every 15 minutes).

The roads and/or road segments for which future traffic conditionpredictions and/or forecasts are generated may also be selected invarious manners in various embodiments. In some embodiments, futuretraffic condition predictions and/or forecasts are generated for each ofmultiple geographic areas (e.g., metropolitan areas), with eachgeographic area having a network of multiple inter-connected roads—suchgeographic areas may be selected in various ways, such as based on areasin which current traffic condition information is readily available(e.g., based on networks of road sensors for at least some of the roadsin the area) and/or in which traffic congestion is a significantproblem. In some such embodiments, the roads for which future trafficcondition predictions and/or forecasts are generated include those roadsfor which current traffic condition information is readily available,while in other embodiments the selection of such roads may be based atleast in part on one or more other factors (e.g., based on size orcapacity of the roads, such as to include freeways and major highways;based on the role the roads play in carrying traffic, such as to includearterial roads and collector roads that are primary alternatives tolarger capacity roads such as freeways and major highways; based onfunctional class of the roads, such as is designated by the FederalHighway Administration; etc.). In other embodiments, future trafficcondition predictions and/or forecasts may be made for a single road,regardless of its size and/or inter-relationship with other roads. Inaddition, segments of roads for which future traffic conditionpredictions and/or forecasts are generated may be selected in variousmanners, such as to treat each road sensor as a distinct segment; togroup multiple road sensors together for each road segment (e.g., toreduce the number of independent predictions and/or forecasts that aremade, such as by grouping specified numbers of road sensors together);to select road segments so as to reflect logically related sections of aroad in which traffic conditions are typically the same or sufficientlysimilar (e.g., strongly correlated), such as based on traffic conditioninformation from traffic sensors and/or from other sources (e.g., datagenerated from vehicles and/or users that are traveling on the roads, asdiscussed in greater detail elsewhere); etc.

In addition, future traffic condition prediction and/or forecastinformation may be used in a variety of ways in various embodiments, asdiscussed in greater detail elsewhere, including to provide suchinformation to users and/or organizations at various times (e.g., inresponse to requests, by periodically sending the information, etc.) andin various ways (e.g., by transmitting the information to cellulartelephones and/or other portable consumer devices; by displayinginformation to users, such as via Web browsers and/or applicationprograms; by providing the information to other organizations and/orentities that provide at least some of the information to users, such asthird parties that perform the information providing after analyzingand/or modifying the information; etc.). For example, in someembodiments, the prediction and/or forecast information is used todetermine suggested travel routes and/or times, such as an optimal routebetween a starting location and an ending location over a network ofroads and/or an optimal time to perform indicated travel, with suchdeterminations based on predicted and/or forecast information at each ofmultiple future times for one or more roads and/or road segments.

In addition, various embodiments provide various mechanisms for usersand other clients to interact with one or more of the trafficinformation systems (e.g., the Data Sample Manager system 350, RTInformation Provider system 363, and/or Predictive Traffic InformationProvider system 360 of FIG. 3, etc.). For example, some embodiments mayprovide an interactive console (e.g. a client program providing aninteractive user interface, a Web browser-based interface, etc.) fromwhich clients can make requests and receive corresponding responses,such as requests for information related to current and/or predictedtraffic conditions and/or requests to analyze, select, and/or provideinformation related to travel routes. In addition, some embodimentsprovide an API (“Application Programmer Interface”) that allows clientcomputing systems to programmatically make some or all such requests,such as via network message protocols (e.g., Web services) and/or othercommunication mechanisms.

As previously noted, in at least some embodiments, predictions of futuretraffic conditions may be generated and used in various ways. Forillustrative purposes, some embodiments are described below in whichspecific types of predictions are generated in specific ways usingspecific types of input, and in which generated prediction informationis used in various specific ways. However, it will be understood thatsuch future traffic predictions may be generated in other manners andusing other types of input data in other embodiments, that the describedtechniques can be used in a wide variety of other situations, thatfuture traffic forecasts may similarly be generated and used in variousways, and that the invention is thus not limited to the exemplarydetails provided.

FIGS. 15A-15F illustrate examples of performing travel route selectionbased on predicted future traffic conditions. In particular, FIG. 15Aillustrates multiple potential travel routes between a starting point Aand a destination point F in the form of an undirected graph, withintermediate nodes labeled B-E—for example, listing nodes in order alonga route, one potential route is ABDF, while other potential routes areABDEF, ACEF and ACEDF. In addition, the edges between the nodes in FIG.15A are each labeled with a predicted time to travel between the twonodes connected by the edge. For example, at a starting time T1represented by the graph, the predicted time to travel between node Aand node B is 12 minutes and the predicted time to travel between node Aand node C is 17 minutes. Similarly, for someone departing node B atstarting time T1 and heading toward node D along edge BD (with an edgebeing represented by the node labels at the two ends of the edge), thepredicted time for travel is 15 minutes. In other embodiments, othertypes of predicted information may instead be used as part of suchtravel route selection, such as predicted traffic congestion orpredicted average speed.

Thus, FIG. 15A illustrates the entire route graph at a single startingtime T1 (e.g., 5 PM), such as for edges traveled by vehicles starting atany of the graph nodes at that starting time. Conversely, FIGS. 15B-15Eillustrate various views showing predicted traffic condition informationfor multiple future times for use by the route selection process fromnode A to node F, with the intervals between each of the future times inthis example being 15 minutes. For example, FIG. 15B illustrates aportion of the route graph based on predicted travel times for time T1that are for use during a first time period beginning at starting timeT1 and continuing until time T2, which in this example is a 15-minutetime period from 5 PM until 5:15 PM, but shows only predicted timeinformation that is relevant during that first time period for the routeselection process, which in this example is for edges AB and AC. Inparticular, since edges beyond nodes B and C will not be reached in thisexample until the first time period is complete or substantiallycomplete, the predicted traffic information at time T1 5 pm for edge CE(for example) is not of use since a vehicle would not reach that edgeuntil a second time period of 5:15 pm-5:30 pm. Accordingly, FIG. 15Cillustrates predicted travel information for the route graph during thesecond time period, such as based on predicted travel times for time T25:15 PM, with only predicted travel times for edges BD and CE shownsince those edges correspond to road segments that would possibly betraveled by a vehicle that left node A at 5 pm. Similarly, FIG. 15Dillustrates the route graph during a third time period between 5:30 and5:45 PM, such as based on predicted travel times for time T3 5:30 PM,with the predicted travel times for edges DF, DE, and EF shown sincethose edges correspond to road segments that could be traveled by avehicle that left node A at 5 pm. For purposes of simplification forthis example, predicted travel times during a fourth time period between5:45 PM and 6 PM (such as based on predicted travel times for time T45:45 PM) for edges DF, DE, and EF are the same as the predicted traveltimes for those edges during the third period, and the fourth timeperiod times are not illustrated separately.

FIG. 15E illustrates a combined view of the information displayed inFIGS. 15B-15D, with predicted travel times for multiple future timesbeing displayed. In particular, the edges are labeled with the predictedtravel times that correspond to the time periods during which a vehicletraveling from source node A to destination node F would be expected tobe traversing the route segments corresponding to the graph edges, withinformation displayed from left to right in the graph generallyreflecting predictions relating to successively later time periods.Thus, the graph shows that the predicted travel time from A to B duringthe first time period is 12 minutes; from A to C during the first timeperiod is 17 minutes; from B to D during the second time period is 18minutes; from C to E during the second time period is 12 minutes; from Dto E during the third time period is 15 minutes; from D to F during thethird time period (and the fourth time period) is 17 minutes; and from Eto F during the third time period (and the fourth time period) is 10minutes.

Using the predicted travel times for these multiple time periods shownin FIG. 15E, it is possible to select the optimal route (in thisexample, the fastest route) from source node A to destination node F. Inthis simple example, total travel times for possible routes between thesource and destination nodes are as follows (not counting routes inwhich a vehicle backtracks over a previously traveled edge): ABDF (totaltime=47); ABDEF (total time=55); ACEF (total time=39); and ACEDF (totaltime=61). Thus, based on the predictions made at the current time forthe multiple future time periods, route ACEF will be the fastest routebetween source node A and destination node F, with an expected traveltime of 39 minutes.

Returning to FIG. 15A, in which the predicted times for the entire routegraph during the first time period are shown, this route groupillustrates how a non-optimal route would be selected using thisinformation since predicted travel times for future time periods are notconsidered. In particular, the predicted travel times for the same 4routes using only the predicted first time period travel times are asfollows: ABDF (travel time=37); ABDEF (travel time=60); ACEF (traveltime=45); and ACEDF (travel time=52). Thus, this less-accurateinformation would have erroneously indicated that route ABDF would bethe fastest route between source node A and destination node F with atime of 37 minutes, rather than the 47 minutes for that route that areindicated by using the predicted travel times indicated in FIG. 15E.Such inaccuracies may have arisen, for example, due to predictedincreases in traffic congestion after the first time period, such as dueto a scheduled event that causes traffic to significantly increaseduring the second and third time periods.

FIG. 15F shows a revised view of the information shown in FIG. 15E, andin particular shows updated predicted travel times for the third andfourth time periods with respect to edges DF, DE and EF. In thisexample, the updated predicted travel information is generated duringthe second time period based on new input information that becameavailable at that time (e.g., an accident that occurred along a roadcorresponding to edge EF, thus significantly increasing predicted traveltime for that edge), which may alter optimal routes between nodes in thegraph. Such updated information may be particularly beneficial if it canbe rapidly provided to users that are affected by changes in thepredicted travel information. For example, a user who had beguntraveling along route ACEF based on the predicted travel informationshown in FIG. 15E would be traveling along a road corresponding to edgeCE when the updated information becomes available, but the updatedinformation indicates that traveling edge EF is no longer the optimalchoice from node E—instead, traveling a revised route ED and DF is nowpredicted to take less time than the original edge EF route. If the usercan be quickly notified while in transit, the user can thus dynamicallyadjust the route being taken to reflect the new predicted trafficinformation at multiple future time periods. Moreover, if the updatedtravel information had become available early in the first time periodbefore a user had departed from node A, the user could be directedtoward a new optimal route of ABDF.

Thus, FIGS. 15B-15F illustrate examples of using predicted futuretraffic conditions at multiple future times to provide benefits withrespect to route planning.

FIGS. 16A-16F illustrate various graphical representations of examplepredictive models for representing knowledge about traffic conditions ina given geographic area. In some embodiments, such predictive models areautomatically generated, maintained, and utilized to make predictionsand/or forecasts regarding future traffic conditions at multiple futuretimes, such as to predict future time series data for each road segmentof interest. Such predictive models may include, but are not limited to,Bayesian or belief networks, decision trees, hidden Markov models,autoregressive trees, and neural networks. Some such predictive modelsmay be probabilistic models, such as Bayesian network models, and suchpredictive models may be stored as part of one or more data structureson one or more computer-readable media.

FIGS. 16A-16D illustrate an example of the generation of a Bayesiannetwork for representing probabilistic knowledge about trafficconditions. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (“DAG”)consisting of nodes and edges. The nodes in the graph represent randomvariables, which may have discrete or continuous values that representstates in the domain being modeled. The edges in the graph representdependence relationships between the variables. Nodes with no parentsare root nodes. The probability distributions of root nodes areunconditional on any other nodes in the graph. A node with one or moreparents has a probability distribution that is conditional on theprobabilities of its parent nodes. By specifying the prior probabilitiesof the root nodes and the conditional probabilities of the non-rootnodes, a Bayesian network graph can represent the joint probabilitydistribution over all of the variables represented by nodes in thegraph.

FIG. 16A illustrates an example collection of nodes that may be used togenerate a Bayesian network predictive model for use in predictingtraffic conditions. The illustrated nodes correspond to variables forwhich observed input data may be received, and to traffic conditionspredictions that may be output with respect to a particular geographicarea. In particular, nodes 1602 a-m represent various input variablesfor use in the predictive model, which in this example will correspondto root nodes in the Bayesian network that will be generated. Theexample input variables are as follows. Node 1602 a labeled IsSchoolDaymay be used to represent whether school is in session on a particularday. Node 1602 b labeled CurrentTime may be used to represent the timeof day. Node 1602 c labeled Precipitation may be used to represent anamount of precipitation over a particular time interval (e.g., the past6 hours) or alternatively a current rate of precipitation. Node 1602 dlabeled StadiumXEvtType may be used to represent the type of event (ifany) that is scheduled for or currently taking place at stadium X. Nodes1602 e, 1602 f and 1602 l-m may each be used to represent the trafficconditions on a particular road segment at the present time or at sometime in the past, and in particular to represent the percentage ofindividual data sources (e.g., traffic sensors or other data sources)for that road segment that are reporting black (e.g., highly congested)traffic conditions at the time being represented—as previously noted,each road segment may be associated with one or more traffic sensorsand/or with one or more other sources of traffic condition informationfor that road segment, as described in greater detail elsewhere. In someembodiments, traffic congestion level data for road segments isrepresented using colors (e.g., green, yellow, red, black) correspondingto enumerated increasing levels of traffic congestion, with green thuscorresponding to the lowest level of traffic congestion and blackcorresponding to the highest level of traffic congestion. These nodes inthis example are labeled PercentBlackSegmentX-Y, where X refers to aparticular road segment and Y refers to a time in the past (e.g., inminutes, or other unit of time measurement) for which the percentagelevel of highly congested traffic on that road segment is beingreported. For example, node 1602 f labeled PercentBlackSegment1-30 maybe used to represent the percentage of black-level congestion for roadsegment Segment1 30 minutes ago.

Nodes 1602 g-i may each be used to represent the average or most commontraffic conditions on a particular road segment at the present time orat some time in the past. These nodes are labeled SegmentXColor-Y inthis example, where X refers to a particular road segment and Y refersto a time in the past (e.g., in minutes, or other unit of timemeasurement) at which a particular level of traffic congestion on thatroad segment has been identified (with the traffic congestion levelrepresented here with its corresponding color). For example, node 1602 hlabeled Segment1 Color-60 may be used to represent the trafficconditions 60 minutes ago on road segment Segment1, with the level oftraffic congestion at that time being illustrated with the appropriatecongestion color. Nodes 1602 j-k may each be used to represent how longthe levels of traffic congestion for a particular road segment have beencontinuously reported as being black. For example, node 1602 j labeledBlackStartSegment1 may be used to represent how long the level oftraffic congestion on road segment Segment1 has been continuouslyreported as being black. A variety of other input variables may be usedin other embodiments, such as to provide additional details related tovarious of the types of conditions shown or to represent other types ofconditions, as discussed in greater detail below.

Nodes 1604 a-g in FIG. 16A represent output variables in the predictivemodel, and in particular correspond to predictions regarding trafficconditions that may be made given prior probabilities assigned to inputnodes 1602 a-m and any current input information for those input nodes.Each output node 1604 a-1604 g in this example is labeledSegmentXColorY, where X refers to a particular road segment and Y refersto a time in the future for which a particular color corresponding to alevel of traffic congestion on that road segment is predicted. Forexample, node 1604 a labeled Segment1Color15 may be used to representthe predicted traffic conditions on road segment Segment1 at 15 minutesin the future. For each road segment, traffic conditions are representedfor a number of future times. For example, nodes 1604 a-1604 d representthe predicted traffic conditions on road segment Segment1 at 15-minuteintervals over a three hour-long window into the future. In theillustrated embodiment, traffic conditions on N road segments arerepresented, each having 12 nodes corresponding to the twelve 15-minutetime intervals over which traffic conditions are to be predicted. Inother embodiments, larger or smaller future time windows and/or more orless time intervals may be represented.

FIG. 16B illustrates the possible values that may be taken by thevariables corresponding to nodes depicted in FIG. 16A. In table 1610,column 1612 a lists the variable name and column 1612 b lists thepossible values the corresponding variable may take, which may be eithercontinuous or discrete. Rows 1614 a-g each list an individual variablename and its corresponding range of values. For example, row 1614 aillustrates that the IsSchoolDay input variable may take the values trueor false, corresponding to the observation that the current day is aschool day or not, while row 1614 b illustrates that the Precipitationinput variable may take one of the enumerated values of none, low,medium, or high. In this example, precipitation is measured as adiscretized quantity over a fixed time interval for the sake ofsimplicity, although in other embodiments precipitation may berepresented instead in other manners (e.g., as a continuous quantity ofrain over a fixed time interval, as a current rate of rainfall, etc.).Row 1614 c illustrates that the StadiumXEvtType input variable may takeone of the values none, football, concert, soccer, or other, although inother embodiments the event type may take on a greater or lesser numberof possible values (e.g., a Boolean value indicating whether or notthere is an event). Row 1614 d illustrates that eachPercentBlackSegmentX-Y input variable may take a real numbered value inthe closed interval from 0.0 to 1.0, representing the percentage of datapoints (e.g., road sensor readings, mobile data source values, etc.) orother sub-segments for the road segment SegmentX on which black trafficcongestion level conditions are being reported at the corresponding timeY minutes in the past. Row 1614 e illustrates that eachBlackStartSegmentX input variable may take one of the values notblack,0, 5, 10, 15, . . . 30, with the “notblack” value indicating that theroad segment SegmentX has not had a black traffic congestion levelcondition in the last 30 minutes, and with the other values indicatingthe closest number of minutes during the last 30 minutes that blacktraffic conditions have been continuously reported on the road segmentSegmentX prior to the current time. For example, a value of 10 meansthat black traffic conditions have been continuously reported forapproximately the last 10 minutes, and a value of 0 means that blacktraffic conditions have been continuously reported for zero minutes (orfor less than 2½ minutes if time is rounded down) but that blackconditions have previously been present during the last 30 minutes(otherwise, the notblack value would be used). Row 1614 f illustratesthat the SegmentXColorY output variable may take one of the enumeratedvalues green, yellow, red, or black, corresponding to increasing levelsof traffic congestion reported on road segment X at Y minutes in thefuture. Row 1614 g illustrates that additional possible values foradditional variables may be represented.

FIG. 16C illustrates a collection of example data corresponding toobservations made regarding traffic conditions in a given geographicarea. Each row represents an observation record consisting of relatedobservations for each of multiple of the variables in the predictivemodel, such as to reflect a particular time or situation. In table 1620,columns 1622 a-1622 f correspond to input variables represented by nodes1602 a-m in FIG. 16A and columns 1622 g-1622 j correspond to outputvariables represented by nodes 1604 a-g in FIG. 16A, with some nodes notrepresented for the sake of clarity. For example, row 1624 a illustratesa first observation record corresponding to an observation at a time atwhich school was in session; no precipitation had been measured; asoccer event was scheduled to be occurring in stadium X; black trafficcongestion level conditions were reported for 22 percent of road segmentSegmentX at a time Y minutes ago; and black traffic congestion levelconditions were continuously reported on road segment SegmentN forapproximately zero minutes. In addition, 15 minutes after the aboveobservations were made, red traffic congestion level conditions werereported on road segment Segment1; black traffic congestion levelconditions were reported on road segment Segment1 30 minutes after thoseobservations; and yellow traffic congestion level conditions werereported on road segment SegmentN 180 minutes after those observations.Rows 1624 b-g similarly illustrate additional observation records, andit will be appreciated that actual observation data may include verylarge numbers of such observations.

FIG. 16D illustrates an example Bayesian network that may be generatedbased on observation data such as that illustrated in FIG. 16C, and thatmay be used as a predictive model for generating future trafficconditions predictions. As is shown, the nodes depicted in FIG. 16Drepresent the same input and output variables as the nodes as in FIG.16A, but arcs now connect the input variable nodes 1632 a-m to theoutput variable nodes 1634 a-g such that each of the output nodes is nowthe child of one or more of the input nodes 1632 a-m corresponding toinput variables. Each arc directed from a parent node to a child noderepresents dependence between the child node and the parent node,meaning that the observed data from which the Bayesian network structurewas generated indicates that the probability of the child node isconditional on the prior probability of its parent node. For example,node 1634 c in this example has a single parent node 1632 c, which canbe understood to mean that the probability of the output variableSegment1Color45 represented by node 1634 c is conditional on the priorprobability of the Precipitation input variable represented by node 1632c. Thus, when input information is currently obtained for thePrecipitation input variable, a predicted value for the trafficcongestion level color of road segment Segment1 at future time 45minutes can be determined. If a child node has multiple parent nodes,its probability is conditional on the probabilities of all combinationsof its multiple parent nodes. For example, output node 1634 a has sevenparent nodes in this example, those being input nodes 1632 a, 1632 b,1632 d, 1632 e, 1632 f, 1632 g and 1632 h, which can be understood tomean that the probability of the output variable Segment1Color15represented by node 1634 a is conditional on the prior probabilities ofthe input variable IsSchoolDay represented by node 1632 a, the inputvariable CurrentTime represented by node 1632 b, the input variableStadiumXEvtType represented by node 1632 d, the input variablePercentBlackSegment1-0 represented by node 1632 e, the input variablePercentBlackSegment1-30 represented by node 1632 f, the input variableSegment1Color-0 represented by node 1632 g, and the input variableSegment1Color-60 represented by node 1632 h.

Intuitively, the Bayesian network may be understood to represent causalrelationships. For example, the illustrated Bayesian network expressescausal relationships between input factors such as school schedules,stadium events, weather, and current and past traffic conditions (asrepresented by input nodes 1632 a-m) and output future trafficconditions on various road segments (as represented by output nodes 1634a-g). As one specific example, the traffic conditions reported 60minutes ago on road segment Segment1 and whether it is a school day mayinfluence the traffic conditions 180 minutes in the future on roadsegment SegmentN, such as if road segments Segment1 and SegmentN arerelated (e.g., are nearby to each other) and if significant trafficreported on road segment Segment1 on school days has a later impact onroad segment SegmentN. This relationship is depicted in FIG. 160 by wayof arcs from each of node 1632 a labeled IsSchoolDay and node 1632 hlabeled Segment1Color-60 to node 1634 g labeled SegmentNColor180.

The structure and probability distributions of a Bayesian network suchas that depicted in FIG. 16D may be generated from observation data vialearning algorithms that determine the corresponding relationships andvalues, such as to determine a network structure that best matches thegiven observation data. In addition, at least some such learningalgorithms can proceed with incomplete data (e.g., such as where some ofthe observation records are missing some data elements), and may furtherin some embodiments generate more complicated network structures (e.g.,by identifying and representing one or more levels of intermediate nodesbetween the input nodes and output nodes, such as to reflect high-levelrelationships between groups of input nodes and/or output nodes).Additional details related to one set of example techniques for use insome embodiments for generating a Bayesian network based on observedcase information are included in “A Tutorial on Learning BayesianNetworks,” David Heckerman, March 1995, Technical Report MSR-TR-95-06from the Microsoft Research Advanced Technology Division of MicrosoftCorporation and available atftp://ftp.research.microsoft.com/pub/tr/tr-95-06.pdf, which is herebyincorporated by reference in it entirety.

FIGS. 16E-J depict example decision trees that may each be generatedbased on observation data, such as that illustrated in FIG. 16C and inconjunction with the example Bayesian network illustrated in FIG. 16D,and that may each be used as part of a predictive model for generatingfuture traffic conditions predictions for a particular road segment at aparticular future time. As previously noted, a Bayesian network such asthe one depicted in FIG. 16D indicates probabilistic relationshipsbetween various variables. A decision tree allows a subset of suchrelationships to be encoded in a manner that may be used to efficientlycompute a predicted value for an output variable given a set of inputvalues. In particular, a decision tree includes numerous decisionsarranged in a tree structure, such that possible answers to a decisioneach lead to a different sub-tree based on that answer, and with thedecisions and answers arranged so as quickly split multiple cases withdifferent outcomes into different sub-trees. Given a set of observationdata such as that shown in FIG. 16C, decision trees such as those shownin FIGS. 16E-J may be automatically generated via learning algorithmsthat determine the best decisions and answers to include in the decisiontree and the best structure of the tree to facilitate rapid decisionsbased on input data to reflect current conditions. Additional detailsrelated to one set of example techniques for use in some embodiments forgenerating decision trees based on observed case information and/or acorresponding Bayesian network are included in “Scalable Classificationover SQL Databases,” Surajit Chaudhuri et al., Microsoft ResearchDivision of Microsoft Corporation, March 1999, Proceedings of 15thInternational Conference on Data Engineering, Sydney, Australia andavailable atftp://ftp.research.microsoft.com/users/AutoAdmin/icde99.pdf, which ishereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.

In the illustrated embodiment, each decision tree is used to generatethe predicted traffic congestion level conditions on a single roadsegment at a single future time given current condition information forinput variables. As described in more detail with reference to FIGS.16A-D, in some embodiments, at each of one or more successive currenttimes, traffic conditions for multiple future times are modeled based onthe information available at the current time of the modeling, such asevery 15 minutes of a three-hour time interval, resulting in twelvedecision trees per modeled road segment. In FIGS. 16E-J, the decisiontree nodes are each labeled with a variable name corresponding to one ofthe input variables described with reference to FIGS. 16A-D, and thearcs emanating from a given node representing an input variable are eachlabeled with one or more of the possible values that may be taken by thevariable. A path is determined by starting at the root node of the tree,using the value in the set of input data corresponding to the variablerepresented by that node to determine which arc to follow to a childnode, and repeating the process for each successive children along thepath until a leaf node is reached. In FIGS. 16E-J, leaf nodes arerectangular in shape, and each represent a most likely future trafficcongestion level prediction for the given set of input data.

FIG. 16E shows a portion of an example decision tree for predictingfuture traffic congestion levels for road segment Segment1 at a futuretime of 15 minutes, and in particular illustrates a single path from theroot node to possible leaf nodes, although it will be understood that inan actual decision tree numerous other paths will similarly lead toother such possible leaf nodes. In this example, the root node 1640 ofthe illustrated decision tree corresponds to the IsSchoolDay inputvariable, with the path leading to node 1642 b being followed if it iscurrently a school day and with the path leading to node 1642 a beingfollowed otherwise. Node 1642 a represents the Segment2Color-15 inputvariable, with possible values of the traffic congestion color (e.g.,green, yellow, red, black) of road segment Segment2 fifteen minutes inthe past leading to nodes 1644 a-d as shown. For example, if it iscurrently determined that black was reported 15 minutes ago on this roadsegment, the path to node 1644 d is followed, which represents thePrecipitation input variable. Possible values of the Precipitation inputvariable from node 1644 d lead to nodes 1646 a-d as shown. For example,if the current measured precipitation is medium, the path to node 1646 cis followed, which represents the StadiumXEvtType input variable.Possible values of the StadiumXEvtType input variable lead to leaf nodes1648 a-e as shown, with each of these leaf nodes representing anassociated predicted future traffic congestion level on road segmentSegment1 at a future time of 15 minutes. In this example, each leaf nodeis also labeled with a confidence level associated with the predictedfuture traffic congestion level (as shown by the value in parenthesis),such as may be determined in various ways. As one example, node 1648 dindicates that if a football game is currently scheduled, then a redtraffic congestion level condition on road segment Segment1 is predictedfor future time 15 minutes with a confidence level of 64%, while node1648 c indicates that if a soccer game is instead currently scheduledthen green traffic congestion level conditions are predicted on roadsegment Segment1 for future time 15 minutes with a confidence level of47%. This difference may be attributed, for example, to the relativeattendance and corresponding traffic for events of the two sports withinthe given geographic area, to different schedules (e.g., start, durationor end times) for such types of events, and/or to different patterns oftraffic flow before and/or after the event (e.g., concert attendees maytend to arrive and/or depart en masse, whereas sporting event attendeesmay tend to arrive and/or depart more sporadically over larger timeintervals).

FIG. 16F shows a detailed view of one example leaf node of the exampledecision tree of FIG. 16E. In particular, a detailed view of leaf node1652 e is shown, which corresponds to the leaf node 1648 e of FIG. 16E.FIG. 16F shows a histogram 1652 f for node 1652 e, which illustrates aprobability distribution over all possible outcomes for node 1652 e inthe observed data used to generate the decision tree. In this example,the histogram 1652 f shows the four possible traffic congestion levelvalues (e.g., black, red, yellow, green) and the associated frequency ofeach value from the observed data. As can be seen from the histogram,the outcome with the highest frequency is a red traffic congestionlevel, with a frequency of 44% of the observed cases (shown as being theoutcome in 543 of 1234 observed cases). In this example, the highestfrequency outcome will be selected as the predicted outcome at aparticular leaf node, and the frequency of that particular outcome inthe observed data will be selected as the confidence value for theprediction. In other embodiments, confidence values may be determined inother manners, such as based on a relationship of the highest frequencyoutcome to an overall mean, median, or other statistical aggregatemeasure of the outcomes.

In a manner similar to that of FIG. 16E, FIG. 16G shows a portion ofanother example decision tree for road segment Segment1, with thisdecision tree representing predicted future traffic congestion levelsfor road segment Segment1 at a future time of 30 minutes. In particular,this decision tree illustrates a path from root node 1660 to a leaf node1666 b, which results in a most likely prediction of green trafficcongestion level conditions with an associated confidence value of 47%based on input conditions corresponding to that path. In this example,the structure of the decision tree of FIG. 16G differs from that of thedecision tree of FIG. 16E, even though it is used to compute predictionsfor the same road segment, based on the observed data reflectingdifferent relevant factors for 30-minute future predictions than for15-minute future predictions. For example, the decision tree of FIG. 16Gbegins with node 1660 that corresponds to the input variableSegment1Color-15, whereas the decision tree of FIG. 16E begins with node1640 that corresponds to the input variable IsSchoolDay.

FIG. 16H shows a portion of an example decision tree for predictingfuture traffic congestion levels for road segment Segment1 at a futuretime of 60 minutes. In a similar manner to that of FIG. 16G, thestructure of this decision tree differs from that of the tree in FIG.16E, as well as that of FIG. 16G. This decision tree shows a path fromroot node 1670 to a leaf node 1676 a that yields a most likelyprediction of yellow traffic congestion level conditions with anassociated confidence value of 53%. In addition, this decision treeshows a second path from root node 1670 to a leaf node 1676 c thatyields a most likely prediction of green traffic congestion levelconditions with an associated confidence value of 56%.

FIG. 16I shows a portion of an example decision tree for predictingfuture traffic congestion levels for road segment Segment2 at a futuretime of 30 minutes. This decision tree may be used to predict trafficconditions for road segment Segment2, as opposed to road segmentSegment1 as depicted in FIGS. 16E, 16G, and 16H, but otherwise has asimilar structure and use as the previously discussed decision trees.This decision tree shows four paths from root node 1680 to leaf nodes1688 a-d, which result in most likely predictions of green, green,black, and yellow traffic congestion level conditions with associatedconfidence values of 89%, 87%, 56%, and 34%, respectively.

FIG. 16J shows a portion of an updated example decision tree for roadsegment Segment1 at a future time of 60 minutes, with a particular pathillustrated from root node 1690 to a leaf node 1696 d that yields a mostlikely prediction of black traffic congestion level conditions with anassociated confidence value of 54%. As described in more detailelsewhere, in some embodiments such decision trees and/or the associatedBayesian network prediction models are updated and/or re-created whennew observed case information becomes available. These updates may occurat various times, such as on a periodic basis (e.g., weekly, monthly,etc.), upon request, and/or upon the accumulation of sufficient newobserved case data. In addition, in some embodiments the new observedcase data may merely be used to update the predicted values for existingleaf nodes (e.g., with respect to histogram 1652 f of FIG. 16F, toupdate that black is now the most frequent outcome for node 1652 e giventhe new observed data based on 1284 of 2334 total occurrences), while inother embodiments the new observed case data is used to generate newdecision trees with potentially different structures. In this example,the new decision tree depicted in FIG. 16J differs in structure fromthat shown in FIG. 16H, even though both decision trees predict futuretraffic congestions levels for road segment Segment1 at a future time of60 minutes, based on the changes in the observed case data.

FIG. 17 is a block diagram similar to that of FIG. 3, with theillustrated embodiment of the Predictive Traffic Information Providersystem 360 being illustrated in greater detail, and an additional RouteSelector system 370 being shown. Other previously illustrated systemsare shown in this example embodiment only as part of other programs 368,such as the Data Sample Manager system 350, the Key Road Identifiersystem 361, the Road Segment Determiner system 362, and the RTInformation Provider system 363.

In the illustrated embodiment, the Predictive Traffic InformationProvider system 360 and Route Selector system 370 are executing inmemory 345 in order to perform at least some of the describedtechniques, with these various executing systems generally referred toherein as predictive traffic information systems. One or more of thepredictive traffic information systems or other systems 368 receivesvarious information regarding current conditions and/or previousobserved case data from various sources, such as from the road trafficsensors, vehicle-based data sources and other data sources. ThePredictive Traffic Information Provider system then uses the receiveddata to generate future traffic condition predictions for multiplefuture times, and provides the predicted information to the RouteSelector system and optionally to one or more other recipients, such asone or more predictive traffic information systems, other systems 368,client devices, vehicle-based clients, third-party computing systems,and/or users. The Route Selector system uses the received predictedfuture traffic condition information to generate route-relatedinformation, such as for frequently used routes and/or upon request forindicated routes, and similarly provides such route-related informationto one or more other predictive traffic information systems, clientdevices, vehicle-based clients, and/or third-party computing systems.

The client devices 382 may take various forms in various embodiments,and may generally include any communication devices and other computingdevices capable of making requests to and/or receiving information fromthe predictive traffic information systems. In some cases, the clientdevices may run interactive console applications (e.g., Web browsers)that users may utilize to make requests for traffic-related informationbased on predicted future traffic information, while in other cases atleast some such traffic-related information may be automatically sent tothe client devices (e.g., as text messages, new Web pages, specializedprogram data updates, etc.) from one or more of the predictive trafficinformation systems.

The road traffic sensors 386 include multiple sensors that are installedin, at, or near various streets, highways, or other roadways, such asfor one or more geographic areas. These sensors include loop sensorsthat are capable of measuring the number of vehicles passing above thesensor per unit time, vehicle speed, and/or other data related totraffic flow. In addition, such sensors may include cameras, motionsensors, radar ranging devices, and other types of sensors that arelocated adjacent to a roadway. The road traffic sensors 386 mayperiodically or continuously provide measured data via wire-based orwireless-based data link to the Predictive Traffic Information Providersystem 360 via the network 380 using one or more data exchangemechanisms (e.g., push, pull, polling, request-response, peer-to-peer,etc.). In addition, while not illustrated here, in some embodiments oneor more aggregators of such road traffic sensor information (e.g., agovernmental transportation body that operates the sensors) may insteadobtain the raw data and make that data available to the predictivetraffic information systems (whether in raw form or after it isprocessed).

The other data sources 388 include a variety of types of other sourcesof data that may be utilized by one or more of the predictive trafficinformation systems to make predictions related to traffic flow and/orto make selections of traffic routes. Such data sources include, but arenot limited to, sources of current and past weather conditions, shortand long term weather forecasts, school schedules and/or calendars,event schedules and/or calendars, traffic incident reports provided byhuman operators (e.g., first responders, law enforcement personnel,highway crews, news media, travelers, etc.), road work information,holiday schedules, etc.

The vehicle-based clients/data sources 384 in this example may each be acomputing system located within a vehicle that provides data to one ormore of the predictive traffic information systems and/or that receivesdata from one or more of those system. In some embodiments, thePredictive Traffic Information Provider system may utilize a distributednetwork of vehicle-based data sources that provide information relatedto current traffic conditions for use in traffic prediction. Forexample, each vehicle may include a GPS (“Global Positioning System”)device (e.g., a cellular telephone with GPS capabilities, a stand-aloneGPS device, etc.) and/or other geo-location device capable ofdetermining the geographic location, speed, direction, and/or other datarelated to the vehicle's travel, and one or more devices on the vehicle(whether the geo-location device(s) or a distinct communication device)may from time to time obtain such data and provide it to one or more ofthe predictive traffic information systems (e.g., by way of a wirelesslink)—such vehicles may include a distributed network of individualusers, fleets of vehicles (e.g., for delivery companies, transportationcompanies, governmental bodies or agencies, vehicles of a vehicle rentalservice, etc.), vehicles that belong to commercial networks providingrelated information (e.g., the OnStar service), a group of vehiclesoperated in order to obtain such traffic condition information (e.g., bytraveling over predefined routes, or by traveling over roads asdynamically directed, such as to obtain information about roads ofinterest), etc. Moreover, while not illustrated here, in at least someembodiments other mobile data sources may similarly provide actual databased on travel on the roads, such as based on computing devices andother mobile devices of users who are traveling on the roads (e.g.,users who are operators and/or passengers of vehicles on the roads). Inaddition, such vehicle-based information may be generated in othermanners in other embodiments, such as by cellular telephone networks,other wireless networks (e.g., a network of Wi-Fi hotspots) and/or otherexternal systems (e.g., detectors of vehicle transponders using RFID orother communication techniques, camera systems that can observe andidentify license plates and/or users' faces) that can detect and trackinformation about vehicles passing by each of multipletransmitters/receivers in the network. Such generated vehicle-basedtravel-related information may then be used for a variety of purposes,such as to provide information similar to that of road sensors but forroad segments that do not have functioning road sensors (e.g., for roadsthat lack sensors, such as for geographic areas that do not havenetworks of road sensors and/or for arterial roads that are notsignificantly large to have road sensors, for road sensors that arebroken, etc.), to verify duplicative information that is received fromroad sensors or other sources, to identify road sensors that areproviding inaccurate data (e.g., due to temporary or ongoing problems),etc. The wireless links may be provided by a variety of technologiesknown in the art, including satellite uplink, cellular network, WI-FI,packet radio, etc., although in at least some embodiments suchinformation about road traffic conditions may be obtained from mobiledevices (whether vehicle-based devices and/or user devices) viaphysically download when the device reaches an appropriate docking orother connection point (e.g., to download information from a fleetvehicle once it has returned to its primary base of operations or otherdestination with appropriate equipment to perform the informationdownload). In some cases, various factors may cause it to beadvantageous for a mobile device to store multiple data samples that areacquired over a determined period of time (e.g., data samples taken at apre-determined sampling rate, such as 30 seconds or a minute) and/oruntil sufficient data samples are available (e.g., based on a total sizeof the data), and to then transmit the stored data samples together (oran aggregation of those samples) after the period of time—for example,the cost structure of transmitting data from a vehicle-based data sourcevia a particular wireless link (e.g., satellite uplink) may be such thattransmissions occur only after determined intervals (e.g., every 15minutes), one or more of the geo-location and/or communication devicesmay be configured or designed to transmit at such intervals, an abilityof a mobile device to transmit data over a wireless link may betemporarily lost (e.g., such as for a mobile device that typicallytransmits each data sample individually, such as every 30 seconds or 1minute, and possibly due to factors such as a lack of wireless coveragein an area of the mobile device, other activities being performed by themobile device or a user of the device, or a temporary problem with themobile device or an associated transmitter) such that storage of datasamples will allow later transmission or physical download, etc. Forexample, if a wireless transmission of up to 1000 units of informationcosts $0.25 cents, and each data sample is 50 units in size, the it maybe advantageous to sample every minute and send a data set comprising 20samples every 20 minutes, rather than sending samples more frequently(e.g., every minute). Moreover, in some embodiments additionalinformation may be generated and provided by a mobile device based onmultiple stored data samples. For example, if a particular mobile deviceis able to acquire only information about a current instant positionduring each data sample, but is not able to acquire additional relatedinformation such as speed and/or direction, such additional relatedinformation may be calculated or otherwise determined based on multiplesubsequent data samples.

Alternatively, some or all of the vehicle-based clients/data sources 384may each have a computing system located within a vehicle to obtaininformation from one or more of the predictive traffic informationsystems, such as for use by an occupant of the vehicle. For example, thevehicle may contain an in-dash navigation system with an installed Webbrowser or other console application that a user may utilize to makerequests for traffic-related information via a wireless link from thePredictive Traffic Information Provider system or the Route Selectorsystem, or instead such requests may be made from a portable device of auser in the vehicle. In addition, one or more of the predictive trafficinformation systems may automatically transmit traffic-relatedinformation to such a vehicle-based client device (e.g., updatedpredicted traffic information and/or updated route-related information)based upon the receipt or generation of updated information.

The third-party computing systems 390 include one or more optionalcomputing systems that are operated by parties other than theoperator(s) of the predictive traffic information systems, such asparties who receive traffic-related data from one or more of thepredictive traffic information systems and who make use of the data insome manner. For example, the third-party computing systems 390 may besystems that receive predicted traffic information from one or more ofthe predictive traffic information systems, and that provide relatedinformation (whether the received information or other information basedon the received information) to users or others (e.g., via Web portalsor subscription services). Alternatively, the third-party computingsystems 390 may be operated by other types of parties, such as mediaorganizations that gather and report predicted traffic condition androute information to their consumers, or online map companies thatprovide predicted traffic-related information to their users as part oftravel-planning services.

In this illustrated embodiment, the Predictive Traffic InformationProvider system 360 includes a Data Supplier component 364, a TrafficPrediction Model Generator component 365, and a Dynamic TrafficPredictor component 366. The Data Supplier component obtains currentcondition data that may be used by one or more of the other componentsor other predictive traffic information systems, such as from the datasources previously discussed, and makes the information available to theother components and predictive traffic information systems. In someembodiments, the Data Supplier component may optionally aggregateobtained data from a variety of data sources, and may further performone or more of a variety of activities to prepare data for use, such asto place the data in a uniform format; to detect and possibly correcterrors or missing data (e.g., due to sensor outages and/or malfunctions,network outages, data provider outages, etc.); to filter out extraneousdata, such as outliers; to discretize continuous data, such as to mapreal-valued numbers to enumerated possible values; to sub-samplediscrete data (e.g., by mapping data in a given range of values to asmaller range of values); to group related data (e.g., a sequence ofmultiple traffic sensors located along a single segment of road that areaggregated in an indicated manner); etc. Information obtained by theData Supplier component may be provided to other predictive trafficinformation systems and components in various ways, such as to notifyothers when new data is available, to provide the data upon request,and/or to store the data in a manner that is accessible to others (e.g.,in one or more databases on storage, not shown). In other embodiments,some or all of the functionality of the Data Supplier component mayinstead by performed by the Data Sample Manager system 350 of FIG. 3.

In the illustrated embodiment, the Traffic Prediction Model Generatorcomponent uses obtained observation case data to generate predictivemodels used to make predictions about traffic conditions, as previouslydiscussed. In some embodiments, the Traffic Prediction Model Generatorcomponent utilizes historical observation case data to automaticallylearn the structure of a Bayesian network for a given group of one ormore roads, and further automatically learns multiple decision treemodels that each may be used to make predictions of future traffic flowon a particular road segment for a particular future time. The createdpredictive models may then be provided to other predictive trafficinformation systems and components in various ways, such as to notifyothers when the new models are available, to provide the models uponrequest, and/or to store the models in a manner that is accessible toothers (e.g., in one or more databases on storage, not shown).

The Dynamic Traffic Predictor component utilizes the predictive modelsgenerated by the Traffic Prediction Model Generator component togenerate predictions of future traffic conditions for multiple futuretimes, such as based on real-time and/or other current conditioninformation. Such predictions may be made at various times, such asperiodically (e.g., every five or ten minutes), when new and/oranomalous data (e.g., a traffic accident incident report) has beenreceived, upon request, etc. The generated predicted future trafficcondition information may then be provided to other predictive trafficinformation systems and components and/or to others in various ways,such as to notify others when new information is available, to providethe information upon request, and/or to store the information in amanner that is accessible to others (e.g., in one or more databases onstorage, not shown).

The Route Selector system selects travel route information based onpredicted future traffic condition information, and provides such routeinformation to others in various ways. In some embodiments, the RouteSelector system receives a request from a client to provide informationrelated to one or more travel routes between a starting and endinglocation in a given geographic area at a given date and/or time. Inresponse, the Route Selector system obtains predictions of future roadconditions for the specified area during the specified time period from,for example, the Predictive Traffic Information Provider system, andthen utilizes the predicted future road condition information to analyzevarious route options and to select one or more routes based onindicated criteria (e.g., shortest time). The selected route informationmay then be provided to other predictive traffic information systems andcomponents and/or to others in various ways, such as to notify otherswhen information is available, to provide the information upon request,and/or to store the information in a manner that is accessible to others(e.g., in one or more databases on storage, not shown).

It will be appreciated that the illustrated computing systems and theirsoftware systems and components are merely illustrative and are notintended to limit the scope of the present invention. For example, thefunctionality provided by the illustrated system components may in someembodiments be combined in fewer components or distributed in additionalcomponents. Similarly, in some embodiments the functionality of some ofthe illustrated components may not be provided and/or other additionalfunctionality may be available. Note also that while various items areillustrated as being stored in memory or on storage while being used,these items or portions of them can be transferred between memory andother storage devices for purposes of memory management and/or dataintegrity. Alternatively, in other embodiments some or all of thesoftware components and/or modules may execute in memory on anotherdevice and communicate with the illustrated computing system/device viainter-computer communication. Some or all of the system components ordata structures may also be stored (e.g., as software instructions orstructured data) on a computer-readable medium, such as a hard disk, amemory, a network, or a portable media article to be read by anappropriate drive or via an appropriate connection. The systemcomponents and data structures can also be transmitted as generated datasignals (e.g., as part of a carrier wave or other analog or digitalpropagated signal) on a variety of computer-readable transmissionmediums, including wireless-based and wired/cable-based mediums, and cantake a variety of forms (e.g., as part of a single or multiplexed analogsignal, or as multiple discrete digital packets or frames). Suchcomputer program products may also take other forms in otherembodiments. Accordingly, the present invention may be practiced withother computer system configurations.

FIG. 18 is a flow diagram of an embodiment of a Route Selector routine.This routine may be provided, for example, by execution of the RouteSelector system 370 of FIG. 17. The routine uses predicted futuretraffic conditions at multiple future times to plan routes through anetwork of roads, such as to determine one or more routes that arepredicted to be optimal, near-optimal, or otherwise preferred.

The routine begins in step 1805 and receives a request to providepredicted information for an indicated route in a geographic area (e.g.,a route indicated with a starting location, an ending location, apreferred arrival time, a preferred departure time and/or otherindicated criteria for use in identifying or evaluating route options)or receives an indication of an update in relevant conditions for ageographic area. In step 1810, the route determines the type of inputreceived, and if a request to provide route information has beenreceived, the routine proceeds to step 1815 and obtains predictions offuture road conditions at one or more future times for the geographicarea, such as for future times that correspond to the preferred traveltime (if any). The routine may obtain this information from, forexample, the Predictive Traffic Information Provider system 360described with reference to FIGS. 3 and 17, such as in an interactivemanner or instead by retrieving previously generated predictioninformation. In step 1820, the routine then analyzes route options basedon the obtained predicted future road conditions information, such as todetermine predicted travel times for each of the route options. Theroute options may include a number of alternative routes to travel fromthe indicated starting location (if any) to the indicated endinglocation (if any), such as a set of pre-determined route options orinstead all route options that satisfy indicated criteria (e.g., usingroads of a certain size or class, using any roads for which predictedfuture information is available, using all possible route options, usingdomain-specific heuristics to constrain the number of possible routes inorder to reduce the search space, etc.). In step 1825, the routine thenoptionally selects a predicted optimal route from the set of routeoptions, or in some embodiments more generally ranks the route options(e.g., in a relative or absolute manner) using one or more criteria(e.g., the minimum travel time, minimum travel distance, minimum travelspeed, minimum travel speed variability, maximum confidence in a routethat otherwise satisfies such criteria, etc. or combinations thereof)and selects some or all of those route options. In step 1830, theroutine stores the route option information, optionally with anindication of the client that requested the route information (e.g., toenable later provision of updated information to the client shouldconditions change), and in step 1835 provides at least some of theselected route information to the client (e.g., only information for thepredicted optimal or top-ranked route, information for a specifiednumber of routes and/or all route options, etc.).

If it is instead decided in step 1810 that an indication of a conditionsupdate for a geographic area has been received (e.g., an indication of atraffic incident along a particular roadway), the routine proceeds tostep 1850 and identifies any affected route(s) whose associated clientsare known. In step 1855, the routine updates route options with respectto the updated conditions for the identified routes, with the updatedconditions possibly including real-time traffic data and/or updatedpredictions information from the Predictive Traffic Information Providersystem, and with the updated route options possibly resulting in adifferent predicted optimal or top-ranked route option. In step 1860,the routine then optionally provides updated route information to theassociated clients, such as if the updated route options informationwould result in different client behavior. For example, the updatedroute information may be provided to vehicle-based clients that may betraveling on or near the affected routes, or more generally to clientdevices 382 that had previously been used to obtain informationregarding one or more of the affected routes.

After steps 1835 or 1860, the routine continues to step 1890 todetermine whether to continue. If so, the routine returns to step 1805,and if not continues to step 1899 and ends.

FIGS. 19A-19B are flow diagrams of embodiments of a Dynamic TrafficPredictor routine and an associated Generate Predictions subroutine. Theroutine of FIG. 19A may be provided, for example, by execution of theDynamic Traffic Predictor component 366 in FIG. 17, such as to generatepredictions of future traffic conditions at multiple future times foreach of one or more roads or road segments in one or more geographicareas. In this illustrated embodiment, the routine generates predictionswhen new current condition input information is received or upon request(e.g., based on periodic requests to generate new predictions, such asevery five minutes), but in other embodiments could generate suchpredictions at other times (e.g., periodically, such as by retrievingany available current condition input information at that time).

The routine begins in step 1902 and receives a request for predictioninformation (e.g., for an indicated road or road segment at an indicatedtime, or for all roads and road segments in a geographic area based oncurrent conditions) or an indication of a data update for an indicatedgeographic area. In step 1904, the routine determines whether a dataupdate or a predictions request was received, and if it is determinedthat a data update was received, the routine proceeds to step 1906 andobtains new current conditions data from one or more data sources foruse as input in the prediction generations (e.g., from the Data Suppliercomponent 364 in FIG. 17, from appropriate stored information, fromother sources, etc.). In step 1908, the routine executes a GeneratePredictions subroutine that generates an updated set of predictions withrespect to the newly obtained data, as discussed in greater detail withrespect to FIG. 19A, with the generated prediction information storedfor later use. In step 1910, the routine optionally provides indicationsof the updated prediction information obtained in step 1908 to one ormore clients, such as to users who have previously expressed an interestin such information, to third-party entities who may use such predictioninformation, etc.

If it was instead determined in step 1904 that a request for predictionswas received, the routine proceeds to step 1920 and obtains previouslygenerated predictions from one or more predictive models for theindicated geographic area, such as predictions generated in step 1908.In step 1922, the routine provides the obtained predictions to theclient. After steps 1910 and 1922, the routine proceeds to step 1940 andoptionally performs any housekeeping tasks. In step 1945, the routinedetermines whether to continue. If so, the routine returns to step 1902,and if not continues to step 1949 and ends.

FIG. 19B is a flow diagram of an embodiment of a Generate Predictionssubroutine that generates predictions of future traffic conditions atmultiple future times for each of one or more roads or road segments inone or more geographic areas, such as for use by the Dynamic TrafficPredictor routine illustrated in FIG. 19A. In this example embodiment,the subroutine generates the future traffic conditions predictions for ageographic area using probabilistic techniques via generated predictivemodels that include a Bayesian network and multiple correspondingdecision trees, such as is previously discussed, but in otherembodiments this or a related subroutine could instead generate futuretraffic conditions predictions in other manners.

The subroutine begins in step 1950 and receives indications of ageographic area and of past, current, and future conditions for use asinput information. As described in greater detail elsewhere, suchconditions may include information about current and past weatherconditions, weather forecasts, event schedules, school schedules,current and past traffic conditions, etc. In step 1952, the subroutineobtains one or more generated predictive models for the indicatedgeographic area that include a Bayesian network and one or more decisiontrees, such as by retrieving previously generated models or byrequesting the models from a Traffic Prediction Model Generatorcomponent. In step 1954, the subroutine generates future trafficcondition predictions based on the current conditions input informationby using the predictive models, such as to generate predictions at eachof multiple future times for each road or road segment in the indicatedgeographic area. In step 1956, the subroutine then optionally performspost-processing of the predicted future traffic conditions information,such as to include merging, averaging, aggregating, selecting,comparing, or otherwise processing one or more sets of output data fromthe one or more predictive models. In step 1958, the subroutine storesthe predicted future traffic conditions information, and in step 1960optionally provides the predicted traffic conditions information to oneor more clients. In step 1999 the subroutine returns.

FIG. 20 is a flow diagram of an embodiment of a Traffic Prediction ModelGenerator routine. The routine may be provided, for example, byexecution of the Traffic Prediction Model Generator component 365 ofFIG. 17, such as to generate predictive models based on observed caseinformation for later use in generating future traffic conditionspredictions.

The routine begins in step 2005 and receives a request to generatepredictive models for an indicated geographic area or to providepreviously generated predictive models for an indicated geographic area.In step 2010, the routine determines the type of received request, andif a request to generate a model was received, the routine proceeds tostep 2015 to obtain observed data for the indicated geographic area,such as from the Data Supplier component 364 or from stored data. Instep 2020, the routine then generates one or more predictive models withreference to the obtained observed data, as discussed in greater detailelsewhere. In step 2025, the routine then optionally provides anindication of the generated one or more models to a client from whom therequest was received and/or to others (e.g., the Dynamic TrafficPredictor component 366 of FIG. 17), or otherwise stores the generatedmodels for later use.

If it was instead determined in step 2010 that a request to provide amodel was received, the routine continues to step 2040 where one or moremodels previously generated predictive models for the indicatedgeographic area are retrieved. In step 2045, the routine then providesthose models to the client who requested the models or to anotherindicated recipient, such as the Dynamic Traffic Predictor component 366and/or a third-party computing system that utilizes the models toperform its own predictions.

After steps 2025 and 2045, the routine proceeds to step 2090 andoptionally performs any housekeeping tasks. In step 2095, the routinethen determines whether to continue. If so, the routine returns to step2005, and if not continues to step 2099 and ends.

In some embodiments, the selection of routes may be based on a varietyof types of indicated information, such as when information is requestedfor fully or partially specified travel routes (with a partiallyspecified route not specifying every road segment between a givenstarting and ending location), when a starting and ending location arespecified (optionally with one or more intermediate locations), when oneor more desired times for travel are indicated (e.g., on a particularday; between a first and second time; with an indicated arrival time;etc.); when one or more criteria for assessing route options arespecified (e.g., travel time, travel distance, stopping time, speed,etc.), etc. In addition, varying amounts of information related totravel routes may be provided in various embodiments, such as to provideclients with only a predicted optimal selected route or to provideclients with a variety of details about multiple route options analyzed(e.g., in a ranked or otherwise ordered manner, such as by increasingtravel time). In addition, some embodiments may represent travel routesin various manners, including human-readable, textual representationsusing common street and road names and/or machine-readablerepresentations such as series of GPS waypoints.

Various embodiments may also employ various conventions for representingand providing current and predicted traffic condition information. Forexample, in some embodiments a data feed may be provided for eachgeographic area of interest to indicate predicted future trafficcondition information for each of multiple future times. The data feedformat may, for example, be defined by an XML schema that defines anelement type with one or more attributes that each contain informationrelated to a predicted traffic congestion level conditions for a singleroad segment for each of multiple future times, with a fragment of anexample such XML stream or file as follows:

<Segment id=“423” speed=“55” abnormality=“0” color=“3” next3hours=”3,3,3,3,2,1,1,0,0,0,1,1” confidence=”2,2,2,1,1,0,0,1,1,1,0,0”/>The above XML fragment represents the current and predicted futuretraffic conditions for an example road segment 423 (which may representa single physical sensor, a group of physical sensors that correspond toa logical road segment, one or more data sources other than trafficsensors, etc.). In this example, the current average speed is indicatedto be 55 MPH, no abnormalities exist with respect to the current averagespeed (in this example, abnormalities indicate a difference in theactual current average speed with respect to what would be expected forthe current average speed, such as by using a baseline average speed forthat time of day, day of week, week of month, and/or month of year); andthe current traffic congestion level is indicated to be 3 (in thisexample, congestion levels are expressed as integers between 0 and 3,with 3 corresponding to the lowest level of traffic congestion and thusbeing equivalent to a value of green, and with 0 being equivalent to avalue of black). In addition, in this example the comma-delimited listlabeled “next3hours” indicates predicted future traffic congestionlevels for the next twelve future times at 15 minute intervals. In thisexample, confidence level information is also provided for each of thetwelve predicted future traffic congestion levels, with thecomma-delimited list labeled “confidence” indicating such confidencelevels, although in other embodiments such confidence levels may not begenerated and/or provided. In this example, confidence levels areexpressed as integers between 0 and 2, with 2 corresponding to thehighest level of confidence and 0 being the lowest level of confidence,although other means of representing predicted future traffic congestionlevels and associated confidence levels may be used in otherembodiments.

In addition, various embodiments provide various means for users andother clients to interact with one or more of the predictive trafficinformation systems. For example, some embodiments may provide aninteractive console (e.g. a client program providing an interactive userinterface, a Web browser-based interface, etc.) from which clients canmake requests and receive corresponding responses, such as requests forinformation related to current and/or predicted traffic conditionsand/or requests to analyze, select, and/or provide information relatedto travel routes. In addition, some embodiments provide an API(“Application Programmer Interface”) that allows client computingsystems to programmatically make some or all such requests, such as vianetwork message protocols (e.g., Web services) and/or othercommunication mechanisms.

FIGS. 21A-21J illustrate example displays of various traffic-relatedinformation based on current traffic conditions (e.g., generated anddisplayed in a near realtime or substantially realtime manner) and/orpredictions of future traffic conditions. In some embodiments, some orall of such traffic-related information may be provided by an embodimentof a Data Sample Manager system, an RT Information Provider system, aPredictive Traffic Information Provider system and/or a Route Selectorsystem, or may instead by provided by one or more third parties based atleast in part on related traffic information supplied to those thirdparties by one or more of the systems. In addition, such traffic-relatedinformation may be provided to users in various ways in variousembodiments, such as by a Web-based client on a desktop computing systemthat displays the information to one or more users or via cellulartelephones, or vehicle-based or other mobile devices that display orotherwise provide the information to a user.

FIG. 21A illustrates an example display 2100 showing current trafficconditions for a network of roads in the Seattle/Tacoma Metro geographicarea of the state of Washington. In this example, the display includesuser-selectable navigation tab controls 2101 a-d, a user-selectablegeographic area selection menu control 2102, a user-selectable timeslider control 2103, a date selector calendar control 2115, a key routeselection area 2104, a display option selection area 2105, a map legendarea 2106, a map display area 2107, a user-selectable map data selectorcontrol 2114, user-selectable pan button controls 2108 a-c, auser-selectable zoom tool control 2109, and currently selected timeindicator information 2113 (to correspond to the user-manipulatable timeindicator illustrated on the time slider control as a small trianglepointing downward).

In this example, a view of road traffic information is currentlyselected (based on selection of the “Traffic” navigation tab 2101 a),the geographic area currently selected is the Seattle/Tacoma Metro area(via control 2102), and the time currently selected is 4:45 PM on Feb.1, 2006 (via slider 2103 and/or the calendar date selector control2115), with the various displayed information reflecting thoseselections. As is shown in the map display area 2107 and described inthe map legend area 2106, traffic road congestion level conditioninformation is currently shown for a selection of major roads in thecurrently visible portion of the Seattle/Tacoma Metro geographic area.For current or past times for which actual road congestion levelcondition information is available, the displayed information reflectsthat actual information, and for future times the displayed informationreflects predicted future traffic conditions at those times. In thisexample, the displayed major roads are divided into logical roadsegments which are each displayed using a level of grayscale shading toindicate a corresponding level of road congestion of that road segmentfor the selected time, such as with a road segment 2111 c of thenorthbound portion of the Interstate 5 road being illustrated with“Stop-and-go” traffic conditions (shown in black in this example), withthe adjacent road segment to the south being illustrated with “Moderate”traffic conditions, and with the adjacent road segment to the north alsobeing illustrated with “Stop-and-go” traffic conditions before the nextroad segment to the north changes to “Heavy” traffic conditions. Roadsegment 2111 a along the Interstate 90 road is currently shown with“Wide Open” traffic conditions, road segment 2111 b along the Interstate405 road currently is shown with “Heavy” traffic conditions, andnumerous other road segments are similarly shown with correspondingtraffic congestion level condition information. While illustrated ingrayscale here, in other embodiments the map may be displayed instead incolor, such as to show “Stop-and-go” traffic conditions in black,“Heavy” traffic conditions in red, “Moderate” traffic conditions inyellow, and “Wide Open” traffic conditions in green.

The display of traffic-related information may be modified by a user(not shown) in various ways in this example embodiment. For example, thegeographic area selection menu control 2102 can be used to select fromone of a number of different geographic areas for which traffic-relatedinformation is available. The time slider control 2103 can be used tomodify the time that is currently selected for which traffic informationis shown, such as to view predicted traffic conditions at future times.The key route selection area 2104 includes various user-selectableoption controls 2104 a-d that may be selected in order to highlightroutes on the displayed map, such as to highlight a route from Seattleto Bellevue by selecting option 2104 a. User-selectable display optioncontrols 2105 a-d include information about incidents 2105 a, events2105 b, construction 2105 c, and speed info 2105 d, such as withcorresponding information for one or more selected options beingoverlaid on the displayed map. Pan button controls 2108 a-c can be usedto scroll or pan the map frame 2107 to obtain a different view of thecurrent geographic area, with an additional southern pan button control2108 d not currently shown due to the scrolling of the window. The zoomtool control 2109 may be used to increase or decrease the display scaleof the map. The map data selector control 2114 may be used to select analternate source of map data, such as actual satellite or other imageryof the geographic area (e.g., over which labels or other indications ofthe roads of interest are displayed). Various other user-selectablecontrols may be provided in other embodiments, and some or all of theillustrated controls may not be available.

In this example, the map currently displays various information inaddition to the traffic conditions for the selected network of roads,such as to indicate venues and other locations that may correspond toevents and other areas of traffic concentration (such as Husky Stadium2110 a in which college football and other events may occur, SafecoField 2110 b in which professional baseball and other events may occur,Seahawk Stadium in which professional football and soccer and otherevents may occur, the Space Needle tourist attraction, the SeaTacAirport, popular parks such as Marymoor Park and Discovery Park, etc.),cities and neighborhoods, and highway labels such as 2112 a-b. Variousother types of information may similarly be shown, such as at all timesor instead in a user-selectable manner.

FIG. 21B illustrates an example display showing predicted trafficconditions at a currently selected future time 2123 of 5:00 PM, such asbased on user modification at 4:45 PM of the slider control 2103 of FIG.21A. Overall, the illustrated predicted traffic congestion levelconditions in FIG. 21B for the road network appear to be more congestedthan the traffic congestion level conditions for 4:45 PM in FIG. 21A. Asone example, road segment 2121 a has a different predicted level of roadtraffic congestion condition than the respective corresponding roadsegment 2111 a of FIG. 21A, with heavy traffic congestion conditions nowbeing illustrated.

FIG. 21C illustrates an example display showing predicted trafficconditions at a currently selected future time 2133 of 6:00 PM, such asbased on user modification at 4:45 PM of the slider control 2103 of FIG.21A. Overall, the illustrated predicted traffic congestion levelconditions in FIG. 21C for the road network appear to be less congestedthan the predicted traffic congestion level conditions for 5:00 PM inFIG. 21B. For example, road segment 2131 a is shown as being wide openat 6 PM, while traffic for the same segment 2121 a in FIG. 21B waspredicted to be heavy at 5:00 PM. In addition, road segment 2131 b haschanged from heavy to moderate levels of traffic congestion between 5:00and 6:00 PM, as shown by the corresponding segment 2121 b in FIG. 21B.

FIG. 21D illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21A, but with the map being augmented with roadway speed information. Inparticular, in this view the user has selected the display option 2145(labeled “Speed Info”) in order to cause current average traffic speedsto be illustrated. For example, road segment 2141 a (with wide opentraffic congestion) is labeled with a numeric 61 indicator that reflectsan average speed of 61 miles per hour for traffic on that segment at thecurrently selected time 2143 of 4:45 PM. In contrast, road segment 2141b (with heavy traffic congestion) is labeled with a numeric 32 indicatorthat reflects an average speed of only 32 miles per hour for vehicles onthat road segment. In some embodiments such speed information indicatorsmay be displayed for only current and/or past times, while in otherembodiments predicted future traffic condition speed information maysimilarly be displayed for future times. Furthermore, in embodiments inwhich color is used to reflect absolute or relative levels of congestionor speed, the speed information indicators may further be displayedusing colors corresponding to the speed, such as to display the numeric61 indicator for road segment 2141 a in green (corresponding to wideopen traffic) and to display the number 32 indicator for road segment2141 b in red (corresponding to heavy traffic congestion). Techniquesother than color or shading may further be used in some embodiments toindicate information such as absolute or relative levels of congestionor speed, whether for roads and/or information indicators, such asthickness and styles (e.g., dashing) of lines, using various font andother text attributes for alphanumeric information, etc.

FIG. 21E illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21B, but with the map showing predicted travel conditions on aparticular travel route at the currently selected future time 2153 of5:00 PM. In this example, the user has selected key route option control2152 labeled “Redmond to Airport,” and in response information aboutpredicted traffic conditions relevant to the route between Redmond 2150a and SeaTac Airport 2150 b is shown for the currently selected futuretime. In particular, in this example traffic condition information atthe currently selected time is shown for each of the road segments onthe route 2151 through the road network corresponding to the selectedroute option 2152, and traffic condition information is shown only forthe route 2151, such as by displaying other roads in a de-emphasizedfashion (e.g., in embodiments in which road congestion levels are shownin color, by showing the other roads in gray). In other embodiments,information about a route may be shown in other manners, such as byremoving all visual representations of other roads and road segmentsthat are not part of the route, and/or by representing the road segmentsof the route in an abstract manner without displaying any geographicinformation.

FIG. 21F illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21A, but with the map showing a congestion-oriented view of currenttraffic conditions at the currently selected time 2163 of 4:45 PM. Inthis view, the user has selected the “Congestion” navigation tab control2161 and the speed information display option 2165 in order to obtaininformation about predicted times until current traffic conditions areexpected to change from their current state. In this example, a timeslider is not shown because the predicted information provided isrelative to a current time of 4:45 PM, although in other embodimentssimilar predicted change information may additionally be available foruser-selected future times. In this view, road segments are annotatedwith circular clock icons, such as icons 2166 a and 2166 b. The clockicon 2166 a with darker shading in this example indicates an amount oftime until traffic on a given road segment clears or otherwise improvesby a designated amount (e.g., changes from “Stop-and-go” or “Heavy” to“Moderate” or “Wide Open”), while the clock icon 2166 b with lightershading in this example indicates an amount of time until traffic on agiven road segment becomes congested or otherwise worsens by adesignated amount (e.g., changes from “Wide Open” or “Moderate” to“Heavy” or “Stop-and-go”). For example, clock icon 2161 a is all dark,indicating that the corresponding adjoining road segment is expected toremain in a congested state for at least the next hour. In contrast,clock icon 2161 b is only approximately one-eighth dark, indicating thatthe adjoining road segment is expected to clear in approximatelyone-eighth of an hour, and clock icon 2161 c is approximately one-eighthlight, indicating that traffic on the adjoining road segment is expectedto become congested soon.

FIG. 21I illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21F, but with only a portion of one road illustrated and with icons thateach visually present information about predicted traffic conditions formultiple future times. In this example, three road segments 2190 a-c areshown and each displayed with a degree of predicted traffic congestionlevel at a particular currently selected time, not shown (although inembodiments in which the currently selected time is a past time, atleast some of the information displayed may reflect actual trafficcongestion levels corresponding to the past time rather than predictedinformation). In this example, road segment 2190 a has wide-open trafficconditions at the currently selected time, road segment 2190 b hasmoderate traffic conditions at the currently selected time, and roadsegment 2190 c has heavy traffic conditions at the currently selectedtime.

In addition, each road segment has an adjoining clock icon that candisplay multiple areas each corresponding to a portion of the hourfollowing the currently selected time, although in other embodiments theclock may represent a period of time other than an hour, or suchinformation may alternatively be displayed in manners other than a clockor a circle. For example, clock 2191 adjoins road segment 2190 a and hasfour portions 2191 a-d, with each portion for this clock being a15-minute quadrant, and with each clock portion being filled with thelevel of grayscale for the traffic congestion level represented by thatportion. Thus, portion 2191 a represents the 15 minutes following thecurrently selected time and is shaded to indicate that wide-open trafficconditions are predicted for road segment 2190 a during those 15minutes, and portion 2191 b represents the period of time from 15 to 30minutes after the currently selected time and also indicates predictedwide-open traffic congestion level conditions. While the portions ofexample clock 2191 are evenly spaced in 15-minute segments (e.g., toreflect predictions made at each of 15-minute time intervals), in otherembodiments each distinct portion of time within a clock may insteadcorrespond to a different predicted or actual traffic congestionlevel—if so, the two portions 2191 a and 2191 b that both represent thesame level of traffic congestion would instead by combined into a singleportion, which in this example would be a portion that fills the firsthalf of the clock. In this example, portion 2191 c indicates predictedmoderate traffic conditions for the road segment during the next periodof time (which in this example is 30 to 45 minutes after the currentlyselected time), and portion 2191 d indicates predicted heavy trafficconditions for the road segment during the last 15 minutes of the hour.Thus, in contrast to the clock icons illustrated in FIG. 21F that eachrepresent a single predicted future traffic condition (the future pointin time when the level of traffic congestion will change), the clockicon 2191 illustrates predicted future traffic conditions for each ofmultiple future times, and provides significantly more information tothe user regarding predicted future conditions in a compact andeasy-to-understand manner.

In a similar manner to clock icon 2191, clock icon 2192 adjoins roadsegment 2190 b and has four portions 2192 a-d that in this example areeach 15-minute quadrants. Quadrants 2192 a-d represent, respectively,moderate, heavy, heavy, and stop-and-go predicted traffic congestionlevel conditions for road segment 2190 b at the periods of timecorresponding to the portions. Conversely, clock icon 2193 has onlythree portions that each represents a traffic congestion level distinctfrom any other portions adjacent in time. Thus, with respect toadjoining road segment 2190 c, portion 2193 a of clock 2193 indicatespredicted heavy traffic congestion level conditions for the road segmentduring a first approximately 7 minutes following the currently selectedtime, portion 2193 b indicates predicted moderate traffic congestionlevel conditions for the road segment during the following approximately15 minutes, and portion 2193 c indicates predicted wide open trafficcongestion level conditions for the road segment during the remainder ofthe hour. While three portions of time are illustrated here, in will beappreciated that more or less portions could be displayed, that eachportion can represent any amount of time down to the difference in timesbetween distinct future time predictions, and that different portions ofsuch a clock may represent the same predicted level of trafficcongestion (e.g., if one or more intervening portions have one or moredifferent predicted traffic congestion levels).

FIG. 21G illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21A, but with the map showing a comparative view of current trafficconditions at the currently selected time 2173 of 4:45 PM so as toindicate differences from normal conditions. In this view, the user hasselected the “Comparative” navigation tab control 2171 and the speedinformation display option control 2175 in order to obtain informationdescribing a degree of difference (e.g., a numeric amount of differenceand/or one of multiple predefined enumerated levels of difference)between current traffic conditions as compared to normal expectedconditions for the currently selected time, with normal trafficconditions being determined in this example by reference to a predictivemodel that can be used to determine expected default long-term trafficcondition forecasts based on historical observations and some currentconditions such as scheduled events but not on transient or temporarysituations such as accidents and other road incidents, short-term roadconstruction, weather, etc. More generally, in other embodiments the“normal” data against which the comparison is made may be determined orselected in other manners, such as by purely using historical averages,by allowing a user to designate the types of information to beconsidered for the “normal” data (e.g., to use school calendarinformation but not events), by allowing a user or other operator todesignate a particular set of data to be used for the comparison (e.g.,by supplying a particular set of data, by indicating a particular pastdate to use, such as last Wednesday at 5 PM, etc.), etc. In thisexample, a time slider is not shown because the predicted informationprovided is relative to a current time of 4:45 PM, although in otherembodiments similar predicted difference information may additionally beavailable for user-selected future times, such as is described in moredetail with respect to FIG. 21J. In this view, the road segments areagain marked to reflect information of interest, but the map legend 2176indicates different meanings for the markings, such as to indicatevarying degrees or levels of difference from normal in various shades ofgray (or in other embodiments to instead using various colors, such asgreen to indicate that current or predicted traffic conditions are muchbetter than normal 2176 a, yellow to indicate that the trafficconditions are better than normal 2176 b, white to indicate that thetraffic conditions are substantially normal 2176 c, red to indicate thatthe traffic conditions are worse than normal 2176 d, and black toindicate that the traffic conditions are much worse than normal 2176 e).In addition, in this example the selection of the speed informationcontrol 2175 prompts road segments to be annotated with numbers in boxesto indicate a numeric difference of the number of miles per hour fasteror slower than normal that traffic is flowing on a given road segment(e.g., for embodiments in which colors are used, boxes displayed in oneof two colors to indicate better than normal speeds and worse thannormal speeds, such as green for better and red for worse). For example,road segment 2171 a is displayed with a level of grayscale indicatingbetter-than-normal traffic and is annotated with the number “11” in abox (e.g., a green box) to indicate that traffic is flowing 11 miles perhour faster than normal on that road segment. In contrast, road segment2171 b is displayed with a level of grayscale indicatingworse-than-normal traffic and is annotated with the number “10” in a box(e.g., a red box) to indicate that traffic is flowing 10 miles per hourslower than normal on that road segment.

Other types of comparative traffic conditions information may bedisplayed in other manners in other embodiments. For example, in someembodiments, comparative traffic conditions information may bedetermined and displayed in a manner other than on a per-road segmentbasis, such as to determine and display aggregate comparative trafficconditions information for multiple road segments (e.g., multiple roadsegments along a particular route, or in a particular geographic area),whether in addition to or instead of displayed comparative trafficinformation on a per-road segment basis. In addition, other types ofcomparative information may be determined and displayed in otherembodiments, such as differences in an average amount of time to travelfrom one end of a road segment to another, differences in averagetraffic volume or occupancy, etc.

Furthermore, anomalous road traffic conditions may be automaticallydetected in various ways, and information about the detected anomaliesmay be presented or otherwise provided in various ways, such as tofacilitate travel on roads of interest. The detection of anomalous roadtraffic conditions is performed in at least some embodiments for each ofone or more segments of roads at each of one or more selected times withrespect to target traffic conditions that are identified to be analyzedfor a particular road segment at a particular selected time, such as toidentify target traffic conditions that reflect actual trafficconditions for a current or past selected time, and/or to identifytarget traffic conditions that reflect predicted future trafficconditions for a future selected time. The analysis of target trafficconditions for a selected segment of road at a selected time to detectanomalous road traffic conditions may include comparing the targettraffic conditions for the road segment at the selected time to distinctexpected road traffic conditions for the road segment at the selectedtime, with the expected conditions reflecting road traffic conditionsthat are typical or normal for the road segment at the selected time.When the target traffic conditions have sufficiently large differencesfrom the expected conditions, corresponding anomalous conditions may beidentified, and information about the anomalous conditions may beprovided in various ways.

Traffic conditions data that is analyzed to detect anomalous conditionsmay reflect one or more of various types of traffic flow measurements invarious embodiments (e.g., average traffic speeds, average trafficvolume over a period of time, average traffic occupancy that reflectsthe average percentage of time that vehicles are occupying a particularlocation, etc.). In addition, a particular type of traffic flow data maybe detected as being anomalous based on differing in one or more waysfrom expected traffic flow data of that type, such as to be abnormal,atypical, unusual, or otherwise sufficiently different (e.g., so as toexceed a predetermined or dynamically determined threshold). Informationrelated to detected anomalous traffic conditions may be provided tousers and/or other computer systems or applications in various ways invarious embodiments. For example, as previously noted, users may beprovided with graphically displayed maps that indicate degrees or levelsto which target traffic conditions differ from expected trafficconditions. In other embodiments, alerts or other notifications may besent to client devices and/or client applications that are used oroperated by users when specified circumstances occur, so that the clientapplications/devices may notify the users if appropriate that traffic islikely to differ from normal or other expectations. Furthermore, in someembodiments such information related to detected anomalous trafficconditions may be provided to other entities or systems that may use theinformation in various ways, including by making some or all of theprovided information to customers or other users of the other entitiesand systems.

In at least some embodiments, at least some of the described techniquesfor detecting anomalous road traffic conditions and providinginformation about the detected anomalies are automatically provided byan Anomalous Traffic Conditions Detector system. Additional detailsrelated to such detecting and providing of information about anomalousroad traffic conditions are included in U.S. patent application Ser. No.11/556,648, filed Nov. 3, 2006 and entitled “Detecting Anomalous RoadTraffic Conditions,” which is hereby incorporated by reference in itsentirety.

FIG. 21J illustrates an example user interface display with comparativetraffic condition information similar to that shown in FIG. 21G, butwith the display further including a user-manipulatable time slidercontrol 21002 similar to control 2103 of FIG. 21A. In this example, thecurrent time is 1:00 PM, but a user has manipulated the time slider21002 such that the position of the triangle-shaped time indicator onthe slider control reflects a currently selected time 21004 of 3:30 PM.In response, the displayed map is updated so that the displayed trafficconditions information corresponds to a comparative view of trafficconditions at the selected time, such as to indicate differences betweentarget traffic conditions for 3:30 PM and expected traffic conditionsfor 3:30 PM. By using the example user interface display of FIG. 21J,the user may obtain information related to anomalous traffic conditionsat selected times of interest. Although not specifically illustrated inFIG. 21J, in some embodiments the user may select times of interest byusing time sequence manipulation playback controls, such as controlssimilar to those of a virtual VCR or DVD device. The target and expectedtraffic conditions data that is used as a basis for comparison for aparticular selected time may be selected in various ways, such as basedon the difference between the current time and the selected time. Inthis example, the user is requesting comparative information for a timetwo and one-half hours in the future, which may be within the timeinterval for which short-term predicted information is available. Assuch, target traffic conditions may be obtained from a predictive modelthat provides short-term predictive information based on currentconditions (e.g., current traffic conditions, current weather, trafficincidents, etc.) as well as future conditions corresponding to theselected time (e.g., event schedules, school schedules, forecastweather, scheduled traffic construction or other work, etc.). Theexpected traffic conditions may be obtained from a predictive model thatprovides longer-term default forecast information based primarily onconditions and other inputs that may be considered by the user as partof their subjective understanding of “normal” traffic conditions (e.g.,not based on current conditions, such as current weather and trafficincidents). In other embodiments and situations, target and expectedtraffic conditions may be determined in various other ways.

The illustrated user interface display of FIG. 21J also includes anincident display options control area 21006 that includes varioususer-selectable controls that a user may modify in order to display ornot display indications of various types of information affectingtraffic conditions via one or more corresponding markers 21012. In thisexample, the user-selectable controls allow control over display ofinformation about traffic incidents, locations of road construction orother road work, and scheduled events. In addition, the user interfacedisplay of FIG. 21J also includes a speed options control area thatincludes user-selectable controls 21008 and 21010 to modify howspeed-related information is displayed on the map. In the illustratedexample, in response to the user's selection of the Speed control 21008,the map has been annotated with a number in a box for each road segmentto numerically indicate information about average speed for theassociated road segment, and in particular in this example to display acomparative number of how many miles per hour faster or slower that thetarget traffic conditions speed for the selected time is relative to theexpected traffic conditions speed for the selected time. By selectingthe Next Hour control 21010, the map would instead or in addition beannotated with clock icons similar to those described with reference toFIG. 21I, so as to provide the user with an indication of predictedtraffic information for each road segment during a future time periodbeyond the selected time, such as the next hour. The predicted futureinformation may be displayed as comparative predicted future trafficconditions information and/or as non-comparative absolute predictedfuture traffic conditions information. Thus, for example, if comparativepredicted future traffic conditions information is displayed, aparticular clock icon for a particular road segment may indicatedistinct predicted traffic information for each of multiple distinctfuture times during the future time period, such as that trafficconditions will be much better than normal in 15 minutes from theselected time, will be somewhat better than normal in 30 minutes, willbe normal in 35 minutes, etc.).

FIG. 21H illustrates an example display similar to that shown in FIG.21A, but with the map showing a graphical view of total travel time fora particular travel route over the course of a day based on thecurrently selected day of Feb. 1, 2006. In this view, the user hasselected the “Travel Time” navigation tab 2181 in order to obtain theusual and actual/expected total travel times for a selected route, suchas a route between Lynnwood and Seattle based on selection of theLynnwood to Seattle route option control 2182. In particular, a graph2184 is displayed that plots time of day on the x-axis 2185 b and totaltravel time in minutes on the y-axis 2185 a. The dark line 2186 a graphsthe usual total travel time for the given travel route at the varioustimes during the day, and the light line 2186 b graphs the currentand/or predicted travel times (based on whether the currently selectedday is in the past, is today, or is in the future), thus enabling easycomparison of the differences in the total travel time lines. As withrespect to FIG. 21G, the usual total travel times for a route in FIG.21H may be determined in various ways in various embodiments, includingbased on historical averages, by reference to a predictive model thatcan be used to determine expected long-term traffic condition forecastsbased on historical observations and some current conditions (such asscheduled events) but not on transient or temporary situations (such asaccidents and other road incidents, short-term road construction, etc.),by allowing a user to designate the types of information to beconsidered for the “usual” data (e.g., to use school calendarinformation but not events), by allowing a user or other operator todesignate a particular set of data to be used for the comparison (e.g.,by supplying a particular set of data, by indicating a particular pastdate to use, such as last Wednesday at 5 PM, etc.), etc. In addition, atime slider is not shown in this example because the predictedinformation provided is relative to the day of a currently selectedtime, although in other embodiments similar predicted differenceinformation may be available for user-selected future times via a slideror other mechanism to select a date.

In other embodiments, similar and/or additional information may bedisplayed in different ways. For example, comparative information formultiple future times may be displayed by way of a clock icon or othermechanisms. In addition, other measures of traffic conditions, such astraffic volumes and/or vehicle occupancy may be displayed. Furthermore,other embodiments may combine various other described user interfaceaspects, such as a time slider control, which may be utilized by a userto specify a currently selected time for which travel information is tobe displayed.

Additional details related to types of displays and providing ofpredictive traffic information and other information are included inU.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/556,670, filed Nov. 3, 2006 andentitled “Displaying Road Traffic Condition Information and UserControls;” which is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety.

Various embodiments may further utilize various input information andprovide various output information for the predictive models used tomake future traffic conditions predictions. In some embodiments, inputsto the predictive models related to date and time information includethe following variables: MarketId (an identifier for a geographicregion); DateTimeUtc (the time of day in Universal Time); DateTimeLocal(the time of day in local time); DateTimeKey, DateDayOfWeekLocal (theday of the week); DateMonthLocal (the month of the year); DateDayLocal;DateHourLocal (the hour of the day); DatePeriod15 MinutesLocal (the 15minute interval of the day); and HolidayLocal (whether the day is aholiday). In some embodiments, inputs to the predictive models relatedto current and past traffic conditions information include the followingvariables: RoadSegmentId (an identifier for a particular road segment);SpeedX (the current reported speed of traffic on road segment X);BlackStartLocalX (the length of time that black traffic congestion levelconditions have been reported for road segment X); PercentBlackX (thepercentage of sensors or other data sources associated with road segmentX that are reporting black traffic congestion level conditions);PercentBlackX-N, where X is a particular road segment and N is a memberof {15, 30, 45, 60} and where the value corresponds to the percentage ofa road segment X (e.g., percent of sensors associated with the roadsegment) for which black traffic conditions were reported N minutes ago;RawColorX (the current color corresponding to a level of trafficcongestion on road segment X); RawColorX-N, where X is a particular roadsegment and N is a member of {15, 30, 45, 60}, and where the value is acolor corresponding to a level of traffic congestion on road segment X Nminutes ago; SinceBlackX (the length of time since black trafficcongestion levels have been reported for road segment X); HealthX; andAbnormalityX. In some embodiments, inputs to the predictive modelsrelated to weather conditions information include the followingvariables: Temperature (current temperature); Wind Direction (currentwind direction); WindSpeed (current wind speed); SkyCover (current levelof cloud or haze); PresentWeather (current weather state); andRainNHour, where N is a member of {1, 3, 6, 24} and representsprecipitation accumulation in the previous N hour(s); and MetarId. Insome embodiments, inputs to the predictive models related to event andschool schedules information include the following variables:EventVenueId (a venue identifier); EventScheduleId (a scheduleidentifier); DateDayLocal (the day of a given event); StartHourLocal(the start hour of a given event); EventTypeId (an event typeidentifier); EventVenueId (a venue identifier); SchoolLocationId (aschool location identifier); and IsSchoolDay (whether or not the currentday is a school day).

In some embodiments, outputs to the predictive models related to trafficconditions include the following variables: RawColorXN, where X is aparticular road segment and N is a member of {15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90,105, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180}, and where the value is a colorcorresponding to an expected level of traffic congestion on road segmentX in N minutes time; and PredRawColorXNProb to indicate confidence ingiven predictions, where X and N are defined as above with reference tothe RawColorXN variables and the value is the confidence level inprediction for road segment X in N minutes time (e.g., based on thelevel of historical support from observed data for the decision treepath taken to make the prediction).

The following illustrates one example of possible values or ranges ofvalues that may be taken by various of the variables described above,with the indicator “ . . . ” between two numbers indicating that anyinteger between and including those two numbers are possible values(e.g., “1 . . . 4” represents {1, 2, 3, 4}), and with possible values of0 and 1 indicating true and false for appropriate variables (e.g.,casedata.HolidayLocal). In other embodiments, other input and/or outputvariables may be used, and their values may be represented in othermanners.

Variable Name Example Possible Values eventschedule.EventScheduleIdInteger eventschedule.EventVenueId Integer eventschedule.Name “SeattleMariners Game” eventschedule.DateDayLocal 1 . . . 31eventschedule.StartHourLocal 0 . . . 23 eventschedule.EventTypeIdInteger eventvenue.EventVenueId Integer eventvenue.Name “Safeco Field”eventvenue.MarketId Integer casedata.DateTimeUtc 02/13/2006 12:15:00casedata.DateTimeLocal 02/13/2006 04:15:00 casedata.DateDayOfWeekLocal 1. . . 7 casedata.DateMonthLocal 1 . . . 12 casedata.DateHourLocal 0 . .. 23 casedata.HolidayLocal 0, 1 roadsegmentdata.RoadSegmentId Integerroadsegmentdata.SpeedX 0 . . . 100 (mph)roadsegmentdata.BlackStartLocalX Before 0745, 0745-0759, 0800- 0814,0815-0829, 0830-0844, 0845-0859, . . . , 1915-1929, After 1930roadsegmentdata.SinceBlackX Integer (minutes)roadsegmentdata.PercentBlackX none, 0-15, 15-30, 30-50, 50-75, 75-100roadsegmentdata.PercentBlackX-N none, 0-15, 15-30, 30-50, 50-75, 75-100roadsegmentdata.RawColorX 0, 1, 2, 3 roadsegmentdata.RawColorXN 0, 1, 2,3 roadsegmentdata.RawColorX-N 0, 1, 2, 3 roadsegmentdata.ColorX 0, 1, 2,3 roadsegmentdata.HealthX 0, 1 roadsegmentdata.AbnormalityX 0, 1roadsegmentdata.PredRawColorXN 0, 1, 2, 3roadsegmentdata.PredRawColorXNProb Real [0, 1] weather.MetarId Integerweather.MarketId Integer weather.Temperature 32-40F, 40-80F, ExtremeHeat, Freezing, Hot, Unknown weather.WindDirection N, NE, E, SE, S, SW,W, NW weather.WindSpeed Breezy, Calm, Windy, Heavy, Unknownweather.SkyCover Broken Clouds, Clear Skies, Few Clouds, Obscured Cover,Overcast, Scattered Clouds, Unknown weather.PresentWeather Blowing Snow,Clear or Fair, Cloudy, Fog, Haze, Mist, Rain, Snow, Thunderstorms,Unknown, Windy weather.RainNHour Extreme Rain, Hard Rain, No Rain, SoftRain, Trace Rain, Unknown schoollocation.SchoolLocationId Integerschoollocation.Name “Lake Washington” schoollocation.MarketId Integerschoolschedule.IsSchoolDay 0, 1

In addition, in at least some embodiments, the described techniquesinclude techniques for automatically determining how to value datasamples and/or providers or other sources of data samples in variousways. For example, in at least some embodiments, the techniques forvaluing data samples and/or data sample sources may be used to determinewhether and how much to pay for data samples from a data sample source,such as a third-party data sample provider that makes data samplesavailable for a fee. In at least some embodiments, additional datasamples that correspond to one or more road segments are valued in anincremental and/or relative manner with respect to other data samplesthat are already available for those road segments, such as to determinea value that corresponds to an increase (if any) in accuracy or otherassessment measure of current and/or future road traffic conditioninformation that results from use of the additional data samples.Similarly, in at least some embodiments, additional data samples thatcorrespond to one or more road segments for which other data samples arenot available are valued in an incremental and/or relative manner withrespect to other road segments for which data samples are available,such as to determine a value that corresponds to an increase (if any) incoverage of traffic condition information for road segments that are ofinterest (e.g., based on being key roads, having a minimum amount oftraffic, having a minimum amount of congestion, having a minimum amountof variability in traffic conditions, being of a particular road classof interest, etc.).

A particular value to be assigned to a group of one or more data samplesmay be determined in various ways in various embodiments. For example,particular monetary or other values may be assigned to particular groupsof one or more data samples by a traffic information provider system soas to reflect additional revenue that may be received by the trafficinformation provider system based on traffic flow information thatresults from the data samples, in a proportional manner relative to anamount of improvement in traffic flow information that results from thedata samples, by using fixed value amounts for particular amounts ofadditional road segment coverage and/or improvement or increase intraffic flow information that results from the data samples, etc. Inaddition, in at least some embodiments, data samples may be valued basedat least in part on a type of the data samples (e.g., readings from anyor a particular type of road traffic sensor, data samples from any or aparticular type of mobile data source, etc.) and/or based on informationregarding indications of accuracy or reliability or other assessment ofthe information provided by the data samples (e.g., based on confidencevalues or uncertainty information provided by the source of the datasamples). Various other factors may additionally be used as part ofassessing a value of data samples, such as contractual terms or otherrestrictions on use of the data samples, timeliness of the availabilityof the data samples, reliability of the source of the data samples inproviding the data samples in an agreed-upon manner, particular times towhich the data samples correspond, variability in the data samples withrespect to associated times and/or geographical locations, etc.

Furthermore, in at least some embodiments, previously disclosedtechniques for assessing data samples may be used to evaluate datasamples to be valued, including techniques for filtering data samples,conditioning data samples, identifying and eliminating outlier datasamples and other unrepresentative data samples, assessing trafficspeeds based on data samples, and/or assessing non-speed traffic flowinformation based on data samples. For example, when determiningincremental and/or relative value of additional data samples, one ormore of those types of techniques may be applied to a first group ofdata samples that does not include the additional data samples and to asecond group of data samples that does include the additional datasamples (e.g., in addition to some or all of the data samples of thefirst group), with a comparison of the results from the two groups beingused to identify additional benefits (if any) that result from theadditional data samples. In addition, in some embodiments an amount ofsimilarity between the additional data samples and previously availabledata samples may be directly assessed in various ways, such as bycomparing temporal and/or geographical distributions of the informationfrom the previously available data samples to temporal and/orgeographical distributions of the information from the additional datasamples. Data samples may be automatically evaluated or otherwiseassessed in a variety of other manners in other embodiments.

Those skilled in the art will also appreciate that in some embodimentsthe functionality provided by the routines discussed above may beprovided in alternative ways, such as being split among more routines orconsolidated into fewer routines. Similarly, in some embodimentsillustrated routines may provide more or less functionality than isdescribed, such as when other illustrated routines instead lack orinclude such functionality respectively, or when the amount offunctionality that is provided is altered. In addition, while variousoperations may be illustrated as being performed in a particular manner(e.g., in serial or in parallel) and/or in a particular order, thoseskilled in the art will appreciate that in other embodiments theoperations may be performed in other orders and in other manners. Thoseskilled in the art will also appreciate that the data structuresdiscussed above may be structured in different manners, such as byhaving a single data structure split into multiple data structures or byhaving multiple data structures consolidated into a single datastructure. Similarly, in some embodiments illustrated data structuresmay store more or less information than is described, such as when otherillustrated data structures instead lack or include such informationrespectively, or when the amount or types of information that is storedis altered.

From the foregoing it will be appreciated that, although specificembodiments have been described herein for purposes of illustration,various modifications may be made without deviating from the spirit andscope of the invention. Accordingly, the invention is not limited exceptas by the appended claims and the elements recited therein. In addition,while certain aspects of the invention are discussed in certain claimforms, the inventors contemplate the various aspects of the invention inany available claim form. For example, while only some aspects of theinvention may currently be recited as being embodied in acomputer-readable medium, other aspects may likewise be so embodied.

What is claimed is:
 1. A computer-implemented method comprising:receiving, by one or more configured computing systems, indications ofmultiple road segments of multiple related roads; obtaining, by the oneor more configured computing systems, information about expected trafficconditions for each of the road segments for a current time, theexpected traffic conditions reflecting traffic conditions that arenormal for the road segments at the current time; obtaining, by the oneor more configured computing systems, information about target trafficconditions for each of the road segments for the current time forcomparison to the expected traffic conditions for the road segments, thetarget traffic conditions reflecting actual traffic conditions on theroad segments; for each of the multiple road segments, comparing, by theone or more configured computing systems, the target traffic conditionsfor the road segment for the current time to the expected trafficconditions for the road segment for the current time to automaticallydetermine whether the target traffic conditions are abnormal withrespect to normal traffic conditions for the current time; andproviding, by the one or more configured computing systems, indicationsof the road segments whose target traffic conditions are determined tobe abnormal for the current time to facilitate travel on the roads. 2.The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the automaticdetermining that target traffic conditions for a road segment areabnormal with respect to normal traffic conditions for the road segmentincludes determining that the target traffic conditions are better thanthe normal traffic conditions by at least a minimum amount.
 3. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the automatic determiningthat target traffic conditions for a road segment are abnormal withrespect to normal traffic conditions for the road segment includesdetermining that the target traffic conditions are worse than the normaltraffic conditions by at least a minimum amount.
 4. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein, for each of the multipleroad segments, the comparing of the target traffic conditions for theroad segment for the current time to the expected traffic conditions forthe road segment for the current time includes generating comparativeinformation that includes a numerical difference between the target andexpected traffic conditions for the road segment.
 5. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 4 wherein, for each of one or moreof the multiple road segments, the target traffic conditions aredetermined to be abnormal with respect to normal traffic conditions ifthe numerical difference between the target and expected trafficconditions for the road segment exceeds a predetermined quantity.
 6. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 4 wherein the providing of theindications of the road segments whose target traffic conditions aredetermined to be abnormal includes providing indications of thegenerated comparative information for at least some of the multiple roadsegments.
 7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein, foreach of the multiple road segments, the comparing of the target trafficconditions for the road segment for the current time to the expectedtraffic conditions for the road segment for the current time includesgenerating comparative information for the road segment by selecting oneof multiple enumerated labels indicating a degree of difference betweenthe target and expected traffic conditions for the road segment.
 8. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the obtained informationabout expected traffic conditions for at least some of the road segmentsincludes forecasted traffic conditions information based on use of atleast one predictive model whose input information includes informationabout conditions affecting traffic on the roads.
 9. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 8 wherein the obtaining of theinformation about the expected traffic conditions for the road segmentsincludes generating the information about the expected trafficconditions based at least in part on use of the at least one predictivemodels.
 10. The computer-implemented method of claim 8 wherein the inputinformation to the at least one predictive model does not includemultiple of current traffic conditions, current weather conditions,current traffic incidents, future expected weather conditions, andfuture events that are scheduled to occur.
 11. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 8 wherein the input information to the at least onepredictive model includes multiple of a time-of-day for the currenttime, a day-of-week for the current time, and a school schedule.
 12. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 8 wherein the at least onepredictive model includes a probabilistic Bayesian network.
 13. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the obtained informationabout expected traffic conditions for each of at least some of the roadsegments includes information about historical average trafficconditions based on an aggregation of actual traffic conditions thathave been previously observed on the road segment.
 14. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising receiving anindication of a selected future time, comparing predicted trafficconditions on each of one or more road segments at the selected futuretime to normal traffic conditions on that road segment at that futuretime to automatically determine whether the predicted traffic conditionsat that future time on that road segment are abnormal with respect tothe normal traffic conditions at that future time on that road segment,and providing indications of one or more road segments whose predictedtraffic conditions at the selected future time are determined to beabnormal.
 15. The computer-implemented method of claim 14 wherein thepredicted traffic conditions on each of the one or more road segments atthe selected future time are predictions that are generated for the roadsegment for the future time based in part on current conditions at atime of the generating.
 16. The computer-implemented method of claim 14wherein the normal traffic conditions on each of the one or more roadsegments at the selected future time are forecasts that are generatedfor the road segment for the future time without using current trafficconditions at a time of the generating.
 17. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 1 wherein the expected traffic conditions for each ofthe road segments include expected average traffic speed for the roadsegment, and wherein the target traffic conditions for each of the roadsegments include actual average traffic speed for the road segment. 18.The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the expected trafficconditions for each of the road segments include expected traffic volumefor the road segment during a period of time, and wherein the targettraffic conditions for each of the road segments include actual trafficvolume for the road segment during the period of time.
 19. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the expected trafficconditions for each of the road segments include expected trafficoccupancy percentage for at least one location of the road segmentduring a period of time, and wherein the target traffic conditions foreach of the road segments include actual traffic occupancy percentagefor at least one location of the road segment during the period of time.20. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the providing ofthe indications of one or more of the road segments whose target trafficconditions are determined to be abnormal includes initiating display toeach of one or more users of a map that includes representations of theone or more road segments, the map indicating for each of the one ormore road segments a numerical difference between the target trafficconditions for the road segment and the expected traffic conditions forthe road segment.
 21. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 whereinat least some of the multiple road segments are part of an indicatedroute.
 22. The computer-implemented method of claim 21 wherein theindicated route has previously been used by an indicated user, andwherein the obtained information about the expected traffic conditionsfor the at least some road segments of the indicated route includesinformation about actual historical traffic conditions for those atleast some road segments.
 23. The computer-implemented method of claim22 wherein the received indications of the multiple road segmentsincludes a request, for the indicated user, for determined informationabout whether the target traffic conditions for the at least some roadsegments of the indicated route are abnormal with respect to the normaltraffic conditions for the at least some road segments of the indicatedroute.
 24. The computer-implemented method of claim 21 wherein theautomatic determining of whether the target traffic conditions areabnormal with respect to normal traffic conditions for the current timefor the multiple road segments includes determining that the targettraffic conditions are abnormal with respect to normal trafficconditions for one or more of the at least some road segments of theindicated route, and wherein the providing of the indications of theroad segments whose target traffic conditions are determined to beabnormal includes electronically sending information, for use by a user,to indicate that traffic conditions for the indicated route areabnormal.
 25. The computer-implemented method of claim 24 furthercomprising automatically determining a future time at which predictedtraffic conditions for the future time for the at least some roadsegments of the indicated route are no longer abnormal with respect tothe normal traffic conditions for the current time for the at least someroad segments of the indicated route, and wherein the information sentelectronically includes an indication of the determined future time. 26.The computer-implemented method of claim 24 further comprisingautomatically determining a future time at which predicted trafficconditions for the future time for the at least some road segments ofthe indicated route are not abnormal with respect to normal trafficconditions for the future time for the at least some road segments ofthe indicated route, and wherein the information sent electronicallyincludes an indication of the determined future time.
 27. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 24 further comprising automaticallydetermining an alternate route for the indicated route for which targettraffic conditions for a determined time are not abnormal with respectto normal traffic conditions for the determined time for the alternateroute, and wherein the information sent electronically includes anindication of at least the determined alternate route.
 28. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 21 wherein the indicated route isautomatically determined based at least in part on the indicated routehaving previously been used by an indicated user.
 29. A non-transitorycomputer-readable medium whose stored contents configure a computingdevice to perform a method, the method comprising: obtaining, by theconfigured computing device, first and second sets of traffic conditionsdata for a segment of a road at an indicated time, the data of the firstand second sets being for a same type of traffic condition but beinggenerated in distinct manners such that at least one of the first andsecond sets reflects expected traffic conditions for the road segment atthe indicated time; automatically identifying, by the configuredcomputing device, an abnormal traffic condition associated with the roadsegment at the indicated time based at least in part on one or moredifferences between the first and second sets of traffic conditionsdata; and providing, by the configured computing device, an indicationof the identified abnormal traffic condition for the road segment at theindicated time.
 30. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim29 wherein only one of the first and second sets reflects expectedtraffic conditions for the road segment at the indicated time, andwherein the other of the first and second sets of traffic conditionsdata includes actual traffic conditions data for the road segment at theindicated time.
 31. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim29 wherein the first set of traffic conditions data includes forecastedtraffic conditions data generated based on use of a predictive model,and wherein the second set of traffic conditions data reflects theexpected traffic conditions based at least in part on historical averagetraffic conditions derived from traffic conditions previously observedon the road segment.
 32. The non-transitory computer-readable medium ofclaim 29 wherein the computer-readable medium is a memory of theconfigured computing device, and wherein the contents are instructionsthat when executed program the configured computing device to performthe method.
 33. A computing device comprising: one or more processors;and one or more components configured to, when executed by at least oneof the one or more processors, and for each of at least one of multiplesegments of multiple roads in a geographic area, identify anomaloustraffic conditions on the road segment by: obtaining a first set ofexpected traffic conditions data for the road segment for an indicatedtime; obtaining a second set of target traffic conditions data for theroad segment for the indicated time; detecting an anomalous trafficcondition associated with the road segment at the indicated time basedat least in part on a comparison between the target traffic conditionsdata and the expected traffic conditions data; and providing anindication of the detected anomalous traffic condition associated withthe road segment.
 34. The computing device of claim 33 wherein, for eachof one or more of the at least one road segments, the first set ofexpected traffic conditions data for the road segment reflects normaltraffic conditions for the road segment at the indicated time, and thesecond set of target traffic conditions data for the road segmentreflects actual traffic conditions for the road segment at the indicatedtime.
 35. The computing device of claim 33 wherein the first componentis an anomalous traffic condition detector system that includes softwareinstructions for execution in memory of the computing device.
 36. Thecomputing device of claim 33 wherein the one or more components consistof means for performing the identifying of the anomalous trafficconditions on each of the at least one road segments.